The War Zone has published an article titled “Shell Game: Inside the Worldwide TNT Shortage”. Here's a brief overview:

Global Ordnance, a major artillery shell manufacturer based in Florida, is facing an acute shortage of TNT and nitrocellulose, driven by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. These materials are essential not only for military-grade ammunition but also for commercial mining explosives. The crisis has worsened due to the loss of TNT supplies from Ukrainian producer NPP "Zarya" and the lack of domestic TNT production in the U.S., which hasn’t manufactured it in decades. TNT prices have quadrupled, and reliance on foreign suppliers—restricted by geopolitical limits (e.g., bans on sourcing from China)—poses a serious risk to supply chains.

The company is searching for alternative suppliers and actively buying up nitrocellulose, yet the shortage of propellant remains a critical bottleneck.

Both government and commercial demand for TNT and ammunition are rising, particularly due to U.S. and NATO deliveries to Ukraine, which have severely depleted Western stockpiles. The U.S. government has begun investing in a new TNT production plant in Kentucky, but building such facilities takes time and significant investment—up to four years from scratch. While Global Ordnance does not plan to build its own factories, it is working to diversify its supply chain.

The nitrocellulose shortage, while somewhat easier to manufacture than TNT, still limits the production of propellant charges.

Strategically, the article highlights the vulnerability of the U.S. and NATO compared to countries like China and Russia, which have self-sufficient munitions production. Lessons from the war in Ukraine are pushing NATO to ramp up production, and while it is theoretically capable of meeting its goal of millions of shells, doing so will require time and new production lines. A potential conflict over Taiwan could shift artillery requirements dramatically, as its warfare conditions would differ significantly from those in Ukraine.

Thus, the global shortage of TNT and nitrocellulose underscores the need to strengthen national capacities and diversify suppliers to ensure long-term military readiness.

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