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TECHNICALS-Palm oil may fall into 3,899-3,942 ringgit range

SINGAPORE, April 19 (Reuters) - Palm oil FCPOc3 may break support at 3,969 ringgit per metric ton, and fall further to the 3,899-3,942 ringgit range.

The bounce triggered by the support was driven by a wave 4, which has ended around resistance at 4,039 ringgit. A downward wave 5 is travelling towards the target zone.

This wave 5 is supposed to be roughly confined within a falling channel. Resistance is at 4,012 ringgit, a break above which could open the way towards 4,039-4,081 ringgit range.

On the daily chart, the lower channel suggests a target of 3,846 ringgit, near the bottom of the wave 2. A retracement analysis on the uptrend from 3,194 ringgit marks a target zone of 3,671-3,819 ringgit.

Despite the bearish suggestion by various analysis tools, the exact course of the fall remains unknown. After the steep fall from 4,443 ringgit, it is hard to tell if the market could keep this momentum.

A break above 4,010 ringgit could signal the formation of a temporary bottom around 3,960 ringgit. The contract may bounce towards 4,073-4,116 ringgit range.
VEGOILS-Palm oil snaps five-day decline on oil surge, eyes weekly loss

SINGAPORE, April 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures snapped a five-day losing streak on Friday amid a jump in oil prices, even as the contract is set for a second consecutive weekly decline.

The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 40 ringgit, or 1%, to 4,024 ringgit ($840.26) a metric ton in morning trade as of 0232 GMT, ending its longest losing streak since early December.

The contract, however, is poised for a near 6% weekly decline.

FUNDAMENTALS
Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1 rose 0.37%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 was up 0.54%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 climbed 1.14%.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

The Malaysian ringgit MYR=, palm's currency of trade, weakened 0.17% against the dollar. A weaker ringgit makes palm oil more attractive for foreign currency holders.

Oil prices jumped $3 a barrel on Friday in reaction to reports that Israeli missiles had struck sites in Iran, sparking concerns that Middle East oil supply could be disrupted.

Stronger crude oil futures make palm a more attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.

Palm oil may break support at 3,969 ringgit per metric ton, and fall further to the 3,899-3,942 ringgit range, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

MARKET NEWS
Asian shares and bond yields sank on Friday while the safe-haven currencies, gold and crude oil jumped after reports of a sharp escalation in Middle East hostilities.
GRAINS-Soybeans drop as strong dollar, ample supply suppress US exports

CANBERRA, April 19 (Reuters) - Chicago soybean futures fell on Friday to within a whisker of four-year lows and were set for their biggest weekly fall since August, as a strong dollar and plentiful supply of cheap beans from South America suppress U.S. exports.

Corn and wheat futures were flat, but also close to their lowest levels since 2020, with traders assessing whether dry weather in the U.S. wheat belt or a leafhopper insect infestation in Argentinian corn fields would tighten supply.

FUNDAMENTALS
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was down 0.2% at $11.32-1/2 a bushel by 0035 GMT and down 3.5% over the week, nearing February's four-year low of $11.29.

CBOT wheat Wv1 fell 0.1% to $5.52-1/2 a bushel and was down around 0.5% over the week, while corn Cv1 rose 0.1% to $4.27-1/4 a bushel, but was headed for a 2% weekly loss.

U.S. soybeans are being out-competed in export markets by beans from top producer Brazil, and a plunge in the value of the Brazilian real has triggered a rush of sales by farmers there.

The U.S. dollar this week rose to its strongest against a basket of major currencies since November, making U.S. farm exports less competitive.

For the first time in 17 years, top importer China has no U.S. soybean cargoes booked as of mid-April for the upcoming marketing year. Overall export sales for the upcoming season were also the lowest for mid-April since 2007.

On the supply side, Paraguay, the world's no. 3 soybean exporter, is headed for a record harvest of around 10.4 million metric tons, although shippers are worried about low river levels slowing trade.

Argentina's 2023/24 soybean production, meanwhile, is forecast at 49.7 million tons, the government said.

Also weighing on soybeans is a plunge in the prices of palm oil in recent weeks. Palm oil is a competitor to soyoil.

In other crops, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut its outlook for 2024/25 global corn production by 7 million tons to 1.226 billion tons and for wheat production by 1 million tons to 798 million tons, though both estimates are still increases from the previous season.

A rare leafhopper insect plague in Argentina has knocked an estimated $1.3 billion off the expected 2023/24 corn crop, an official at the Rosario grains exchange said.

Dry weather is stressing crops in portions of the U.S. Plains, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting that 24% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was located in a drought area, as of April 16.

More broadly, Latin American nations must be on high alert as the weather phenomenon known as El Nino rapidly switches over to La Nina, experts said on Thursday, leaving populations and crops little time to recover.

MARKETS NEWS
U.S. stocks vacillated on Thursday, swinging from red to green and back as investors contended with the push-pull of a strong economy and restrictive Federal Reserve policy.
CBOT soybeans end lower on Brazilian farmer sales

CHICAGO, April 18 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Thursday with most-active July contract SN24 hitting its lowest in seven weeks, pressured by farmer soy sales in Brazil and outlooks for generally favorable U.S. planting weather, traders said.

CBOT July soymeal SMN24 ended down $2.40 at $337.40 per short ton.

CBOT July soyoil fell 0.90 cent to finish at 44.66 cents per
pound after notching a life-of-contract low at 44.36 cents.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. old-crop soybeans in the week ending April 11 at 485,800 metric tons, in line with trade expectations.

Under its daily reporting rules, the USDA confirmed private
sales of 138,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines.

Soybean futures were pressured in part by an influx of Brazilian farmer sales as the Brazilian real fell this week to its lowest since March 2023, making dollar-denominated soybeans worth more.

Paraguay, the world's No. 3 soy exporter, is headed for a record soybean harvest but exporters are worried about low river levels that are slowing shipments along the key Paraguay-Paraná waterway, industry sources said.

After the CBOT close, the government of Argentina estimated the country's 2023/24 soybean crop at 49.7 million metric tons.
CBOT corn hits six-week low on sluggish demand

CHICAGO, April 18 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures closed lower on Thursday for a fourth straight session, with the most-active July contract CN24 hitting a six-week low on lackluster demand and outlooks for generally favorable U.S. planting weather, traders said.

Strength in the U.S. dollar .DXY and spillover weakness from soybeans added to bearish sentiment.

CBOT May corn CK24 settled down 3-1/2 cents at $4.26-3/4 per bushel.

CBOT July corn CN24 finished down 4-3/4 cents at $4.36-1/4 per bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly report on Thursday indicated export sales of U.S. old-crop corn in the week ending April 11 at 501,200 metric tons, in line with trade expectations but down 45% from the prior four-week average.

Worries about a corn disease in Argentina underpinned the market. The USDA's attache in Buenos Aires lowered its unofficial estimate of Argentina's 2023/24 corn crop to 51 million metric tons, below the USDA's official estimate of 55 million, and a Rosario grains exchange analyst said estimates of the crop could be reduced further.

The disease has knocked an estimated $1.3 billion off the value of Argentina's expected 2023/24 corn crop, an official with the Rosario grains exchange said.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production by 7 million metric tons to 1.226 billion tons.
ICE canola futures dip on soy weakness

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, April 18 (Reuters) - ICE canola futures dipped on Thursday, weighed down by losses for soybeans and soyoil.


Canola's losses were more modest than those of soy futures, due to gains by European rapeseed, a trader said

Most active July canola RSN4 lost $1.50 to settle at $622.30 per metric ton.

May-July canola spread, the most active inter-month spread, traded 15,713 times.

U.S. soybean and corn futures fell to six-week lows with both markets well-supplied by South America.

*All figures in Canadian dollars unless noted
Alberta daily canola price as of April 18

April 18 (Reuters) - Closing Canola Average Prices (per tonne, in Canadian dollars) as of April 18 2024:

Region Apr.18 Apr.17 Apr.16
Peace 588.77 591.11 590.83
North Alta 595.84 598.16 598.57
South Alta 595.36 597.82 598.34
European vegoils Palm oil down with futures on slow demand, rival oils

GDYNIA, April 18 (LSEG) - Palm oil prices on the European vegetable oils market eased on Thursday mainly tracking weaker Malaysian palm oil futures on concerns over lagging demand and because of weaker rival edible oils.

Asking prices for palm oil were between unchanged and $30 a tonne down after Malaysian palm oil futures closed between 21 and 36 ringgits per tonne lower pressured also by expectations for rising production. A weaker energy prices also weighed.

At 1700 GMT CBOT soyoil futures were between 0.13 and 0.49 cent per pound lower because of technical selling and pressured by a huge South America soybean crop. A seasonal slowing demand for the U.S. soybeans also weighed.

Asking prices for EU rapeoil were between five euros a tonne higher and 10 euros a tonne lower on weaker trend in rival oils and softer energy prices. A lack of participations due to an industry event also weighed, while a slightly firmer dollar limited losses.

Lauric oils were between $25 a tonne higher and $35 lower on the back of bearish trend in palm oil.

Business overall was slow as many players were visiting the annual Nofota trade dinner in Rotterdam on Thursday, April 18.
European feeds-Soymeal firmer on bargain buying

Gdynia, April 18 (LSEG) - Soymeal on the European meals and feeds market was bullish on Thursday on technical-buying and unfavorable weather conditions in Argentina.

South American soymeal offered as much as $6 a tonne up from Wednesday. The market was supported exclusively by technical buying. Excessive moisture due to recent rains in Argentina also supported the market.

EU rapemeal was mixed between 3 euros per tonne up and 3 euros per tonne lower from Wednesday.
CIF/FOB Gulf Grain-Soybean barge basis steady-lower, corn basis mixed

April 18 (Reuters) - Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export were steady to slightly lower on Thursday, while corn basis bids were mixed, traders said.

While spreads between Gulf barge basis bids and offers remain wide on new-crop corn and soybeans, offers for both old and new crop ticked lower amid continued signs of sluggish demand, two dealers said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's attache in Buenos Aires lowered its unofficial estimate of Argentina's 2023/24 corn crop, citing the disease, and a Rosario grains exchange analyst said estimates of the crop could be reduced further.

USDA reported on Thursday export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended April 11 at 485,800 metric tons, in line with trade expectations.

Corn and wheat exports were also in line with trade estimates, though USDA did report net cancellations of 93,500 metric tons of old-crop U.S. wheat export sales.

Paraguay, the world's third largest exporter of soybeans, is set for a record soybean harvest.

CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in April were bid at 40 cents over the Chicago Board of Trade May futures SK24, down 2 cents, while May loadings were bid steady at 51 cents over futures.

Export premiums for April soybean loadings at the Gulf were flat at 63 cents over May futures. May loadings were offered at 58 cents over futures, unchanged.

CIF basis bids for corn barges loaded in April were bid one cent higher at 48 cents over CBOT May futures CK24. May barge bids were steady at 51 cents over futures.

Corn export premiums for April loadings remained flat at 53 cents over May futures; May loadings were steady, offered at 56 cents over futures.
Ukraine : Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food predicts this year?s harvest of grains and oilseeds at about 74 million tonnes

According to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, in 2024, the gross production of grains and oilseeds will be about 74 million tonnes. Of these, about 52.4 million tonnes of grains and 21.7 million tonnes of oilseeds.

At the beginning of last year, the total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2023 was also forecast to be almost 13% lower than in the previous period, at 63.5 million tonnes. However, weather conditions contributed to the increase in harvest. Therefore, in 2023, the gross production was about 82 million tonnes, including more than 60 million tonnes of grains and about 22 million tonnes of oilseeds.

Thus, the forecasts for gross harvest figures are preliminary and will be adjusted throughout the year depending on circumstances, primarily weather conditions.

This year, farmers are expected to harvest the following volumes of grain: 19.2 million tonnes of wheat (22.2 million tonnes last year), 4.9 million tonnes of barley (5.7 million tonnes in 2023), and 26.7 million tonnes of corn (30.5 million tonnes last year).

Among oilseeds, soybeans are expected to increase. This crop is expected to produce 5.2 million tonnes. In 2023, 4.7 million tonnes were harvested. Sunflower production is forecast at 12.4 million tonnes, compared to 12.9 million tonnes last year. Rapeseed production is forecast to reach 4.1 million tonnes, compared to 4.7 million tonnes last year.

The area under grains and pulses is forecast at 10.6 million hectares (-395,000 hectares compared to 2023).

Of these, winter wheat was planted on 4.3 million hectares (-0.3 million hectares), while spring wheat is expected to reach 0.2 million hectares (+200 hectares).

Winter barley was sown on 0.47 million hectares (-0.15 million hectares), the area of spring barley is expected to be 0.94 million hectares (+0.06 million hectares), and corn ? 3.9 million hectares (-62,000 hectares).

Among oilseeds, the area under soybeans is increasing. It is forecasted that soybeans will be planted on the area of 2.2 million hectares. This is almost 400,000 hectares more than last year. Sunflower will be planted on 5.3 million hectares, almost the same as last year. Rapeseed will be planted on 1.5 million hectares, which is 0.1 million hectares less than last year.
Export Summary-Philippines buys U.S. soybean cake, meal; South Korea buys wheat

April 18 (Reuters) - Snapshot of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as reported by government and private sources as of the end of business on Thursday:

SOYBEAN CAKE AND SOYMEAL SALE: Exporters sold 138,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and soymeal to the Philippines for 2023/24 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.

WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills on Thursday bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said.

FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 94,612 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.

DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 25,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said.

FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is April 24.

FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 50,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia on Wednesday, European traders said on Thursday.

NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: South Korea's Korea Feed Association (KFA) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender on Thursday to buy up to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from South America or South Africa only, European traders said. Prices offered were regarded as too high, traders said.

RICE PRICE OFFER: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy about 300,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $588.00 per ton cost and freight (c&f) for rice expected to be sourced from Vietnam, European traders said on Thursday. No purchase in the international tender has yet been reported and price negotiations continue, traders said. A decision is expected in the coming days.

PENDING TENDERS:

SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tonnes of soymeal, European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was April 16, they said.

RICE TENDER DELAYED: The deadline for price submissions in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice was delayed to April 17, European traders said. Results are expected later this week after price negotiations.

MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan's state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 23.
TOP NEWS Agricultural Commodities

> EXCLUSIVE-US EPA to announce temporary expanded sales of higher-ethanol gasoline
> GRAINS-Wheat futures jump more than 3% on reports of Israeli strike on Iran
> IGC cuts 2024/25 world corn production forecast
> ANALYSIS-Paraguay on track for record soy crop, but low river levels slow exports
> Argentine farmers call for 'urgent' end to wheat export taxes
> COLUMN-Next year’s US soybean export sales lifeless amid rocky China relations
> China's agri product prices to stabilise and recover, ministry says
> North America Q1 cocoa processing rises despite sky-high prices
> Latin America must brace as El Nino flips to La Nina, experts warn
> US to spend $1 billion on food aid abroad amid global hunger crisis
> VEGOILS-Palm oil snaps five-day decline on oil surge, eyes weekly loss
> ASIA RICE-India prices slip to near 3-month low on weak demand
> Cotton drops to over 4-month low on strong dollar, technical selling
Closing FCPO1 @ MYR3928/MT
As passionate players in the Palm Oils & Fats sector, we are proud to participate in Djazagro, the must-attend event in the industry in Algeria. 4 reasons why we are exhibiting at Djazagro in Algiers this year:

1. To promote our expertise at the intersection of Sub-Saharan Africa,
2. To increase our visibility and our image as a leader in the Palm Oils & Fats sector,
3. To meet our customers and prospects,
4. To conclude even more commercial partnerships.

In 2024, Djazagro will welcome 650 exhibitors from 28 different countries.

And more than 23,000 professionals looking for know-how, food business, new equipment, or packaging.

Will you be part of it?

We will be waiting for you in Hall A, Booth A-027!
Presentation of Alami Group’s Products and Services at the Malaysian-Algerian Palm Oil Seminar organized by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council MPOC at Hyatt Regency Hotel Alger.