SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod: +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod: +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
❤1
🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 18 SEPTEMBER 2026
📉 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BEARISH
FCPO has lost some recovery momentum after failing to break out of its recent consolidation range. The move below the RM4,930 area increases the possibility of another test of RM4,900.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,900 could extend the correction toward:
RM4,900 → RM4,870 → RM4,840
The RM4,840–4,870 area is the key near-term support zone. If this fails, attention shifts toward the major structural support around RM4,810.
📈 Upside Scenario
FCPO needs to recover above approximately RM4,960 to restore stronger upside momentum.
RM4,960 → RM5,000–5,010 → RM5,030
A break above RM5,030 would represent a much stronger bullish signal and suggest that the broader consolidation is resolving to the upside.
📊 Bigger Picture
The broader market remains within a consolidation structure below the August high around RM5,030.
As long as RM4,810 remains intact, the larger structure still leaves room for another upward move. A decisive break below RM4,810, however, would strengthen the bearish top/reversal scenario.
💭 My View
I remain cautiously bullish on the broader structure, but expect short-term pressure first.
FCPO may need to retest the RM4,900–4,840 zone before establishing its next direction. If buyers defend this area, I see potential for another recovery toward RM4,960, followed by RM5,000–5,030.
The key level for me is RM4,810. As long as the market remains above this level, I would treat the current weakness as consolidation rather than confirmation of a new downtrend.
Below RM4,810: outlook turns more bearish.
Above RM4,960: recovery strengthens.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout confirmed.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bearish ↘
Medium term: Mildly Bullish while above RM4,810 ↗
Expected near-term range: RM4,840–5,000/MT
📉 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BEARISH
FCPO has lost some recovery momentum after failing to break out of its recent consolidation range. The move below the RM4,930 area increases the possibility of another test of RM4,900.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,900 could extend the correction toward:
RM4,900 → RM4,870 → RM4,840
The RM4,840–4,870 area is the key near-term support zone. If this fails, attention shifts toward the major structural support around RM4,810.
📈 Upside Scenario
FCPO needs to recover above approximately RM4,960 to restore stronger upside momentum.
RM4,960 → RM5,000–5,010 → RM5,030
A break above RM5,030 would represent a much stronger bullish signal and suggest that the broader consolidation is resolving to the upside.
📊 Bigger Picture
The broader market remains within a consolidation structure below the August high around RM5,030.
As long as RM4,810 remains intact, the larger structure still leaves room for another upward move. A decisive break below RM4,810, however, would strengthen the bearish top/reversal scenario.
💭 My View
I remain cautiously bullish on the broader structure, but expect short-term pressure first.
FCPO may need to retest the RM4,900–4,840 zone before establishing its next direction. If buyers defend this area, I see potential for another recovery toward RM4,960, followed by RM5,000–5,030.
The key level for me is RM4,810. As long as the market remains above this level, I would treat the current weakness as consolidation rather than confirmation of a new downtrend.
Below RM4,810: outlook turns more bearish.
Above RM4,960: recovery strengthens.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout confirmed.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bearish ↘
Medium term: Mildly Bullish while above RM4,810 ↗
Expected near-term range: RM4,840–5,000/MT
❤1
🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 18 SEPTEMBER 2026
📊 Market Overview
Palm oil faces a softer external environment today, with weakness across CBOT soyoil, Dalian vegetable oils and crude oil weighing on sentiment. The sharp decline in Dalian palm oil is particularly important for the Asian session.
The main counterweights are a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and continued uncertainty over global oilseed demand.
🇨🇳 China – STRONGEST BEARISH SIGNAL
Chinese vegetable oils opened notably weaker:
Dalian palm oil: CNY9,913, -157
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,927, -90
Dalian soybeans: CNY5,014, -64
The broad decline across China's oilseed complex provides the clearest negative external signal for Malaysian palm oil today. Dalian palm's sharp fall is especially relevant and could limit FCPO recovery attempts.
🌱 Soy Complex – MIXED TO SOFT
CBOT November soybeans settled around $13.20/bu, only slightly lower after a volatile session. Expectations surrounding next week's U.S.-China talks continue to keep Chinese soybean demand in focus.
However, December soyoil fell to around 69.15 cents/lb, with subsequent indications near 68.87 cents. Since soyoil competes directly with palm oil, continued weakness here is a more immediate headwind for FCPO.
Soymeal remains comparatively strong, showing that the weakness is concentrated more heavily in the oil side of the soybean complex.
🛢 Crude Oil – SUPPORT FADING
Crude remains above $100/barrel but has continued to retreat.
October crude was around $101.91, with later indications near $101.09. Additional Saudi crude availability through Oman has eased some concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
Oil above $100 still provides underlying biodiesel support, but the recent decline means the energy market is no longer providing the same bullish momentum to palm oil as earlier in the week.
🇪🇺 Physical Palm Market – SOFT
European physical prices also point to softer palm fundamentals.
November Malaysian/Sumatran CPO was offered around $1,440/MT CIF Rotterdam, down $60, while Malaysian FOB palm oil for November–December was around $1,225/MT, down $15.
Palm kernel oil also weakened, with Rotterdam Sep–Oct around $2,180/MT.
However, RBD palm olein was more resilient, with October Malaysian FOB offers around $1,230/MT, up $30.
Overall, the European market remains mixed but generally soft for crude palm oil.
🇨🇦 Canola – SUPPORTIVE
ICE November canola moved against the broader weakness, gaining C$7 to C$833.90/MT.
Harvest-weather concerns and a weaker Canadian dollar supported prices. This provides some support to the wider vegetable-oil complex, although it is currently being outweighed by weakness in Dalian and CBOT soyoil.
💱 Ringgit – STILL SUPPORTIVE, BUT LESS SO
USD/MYR eased toward approximately 4.087, after trading as high as 4.1010 previously.
The ringgit remains relatively weak compared with earlier levels, which helps Malaysian palm oil's export competitiveness. However, as the dollar rally cools and USD/MYR moves back below 4.10, some of that currency support is fading.
🌎 Macro Environment
Global equities recovered after the previous session's Fed-driven selloff, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated and the dollar stabilized.
This improves broader risk sentiment, but global central banks remain focused on inflation and tighter monetary policy. For commodities, that creates a mixed environment: better equity sentiment is positive, while high interest rates and a strong dollar can restrain demand.
🔎 Overall Market View
Near-term bias: NEUTRAL TO MILDLY BEARISH
The external picture has weakened compared with earlier this week. Dalian palm oil's sharp decline, weaker CBOT soyoil, softer crude oil and lower European CPO offers are the main pressures.
The downside is partly cushioned by a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and crude remaining above $100/barrel.
For FCPO, the immediate question is whether domestic buying can absorb the weakness coming from China and competing oils. Unless Dalian palm and CBOT soyoil recover, upside momentum may
📊 Market Overview
Palm oil faces a softer external environment today, with weakness across CBOT soyoil, Dalian vegetable oils and crude oil weighing on sentiment. The sharp decline in Dalian palm oil is particularly important for the Asian session.
The main counterweights are a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and continued uncertainty over global oilseed demand.
🇨🇳 China – STRONGEST BEARISH SIGNAL
Chinese vegetable oils opened notably weaker:
Dalian palm oil: CNY9,913, -157
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,927, -90
Dalian soybeans: CNY5,014, -64
The broad decline across China's oilseed complex provides the clearest negative external signal for Malaysian palm oil today. Dalian palm's sharp fall is especially relevant and could limit FCPO recovery attempts.
🌱 Soy Complex – MIXED TO SOFT
CBOT November soybeans settled around $13.20/bu, only slightly lower after a volatile session. Expectations surrounding next week's U.S.-China talks continue to keep Chinese soybean demand in focus.
However, December soyoil fell to around 69.15 cents/lb, with subsequent indications near 68.87 cents. Since soyoil competes directly with palm oil, continued weakness here is a more immediate headwind for FCPO.
Soymeal remains comparatively strong, showing that the weakness is concentrated more heavily in the oil side of the soybean complex.
🛢 Crude Oil – SUPPORT FADING
Crude remains above $100/barrel but has continued to retreat.
October crude was around $101.91, with later indications near $101.09. Additional Saudi crude availability through Oman has eased some concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
Oil above $100 still provides underlying biodiesel support, but the recent decline means the energy market is no longer providing the same bullish momentum to palm oil as earlier in the week.
🇪🇺 Physical Palm Market – SOFT
European physical prices also point to softer palm fundamentals.
November Malaysian/Sumatran CPO was offered around $1,440/MT CIF Rotterdam, down $60, while Malaysian FOB palm oil for November–December was around $1,225/MT, down $15.
Palm kernel oil also weakened, with Rotterdam Sep–Oct around $2,180/MT.
However, RBD palm olein was more resilient, with October Malaysian FOB offers around $1,230/MT, up $30.
Overall, the European market remains mixed but generally soft for crude palm oil.
🇨🇦 Canola – SUPPORTIVE
ICE November canola moved against the broader weakness, gaining C$7 to C$833.90/MT.
Harvest-weather concerns and a weaker Canadian dollar supported prices. This provides some support to the wider vegetable-oil complex, although it is currently being outweighed by weakness in Dalian and CBOT soyoil.
💱 Ringgit – STILL SUPPORTIVE, BUT LESS SO
USD/MYR eased toward approximately 4.087, after trading as high as 4.1010 previously.
The ringgit remains relatively weak compared with earlier levels, which helps Malaysian palm oil's export competitiveness. However, as the dollar rally cools and USD/MYR moves back below 4.10, some of that currency support is fading.
🌎 Macro Environment
Global equities recovered after the previous session's Fed-driven selloff, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated and the dollar stabilized.
This improves broader risk sentiment, but global central banks remain focused on inflation and tighter monetary policy. For commodities, that creates a mixed environment: better equity sentiment is positive, while high interest rates and a strong dollar can restrain demand.
🔎 Overall Market View
Near-term bias: NEUTRAL TO MILDLY BEARISH
The external picture has weakened compared with earlier this week. Dalian palm oil's sharp decline, weaker CBOT soyoil, softer crude oil and lower European CPO offers are the main pressures.
The downside is partly cushioned by a relatively weak ringgit, stronger canola and crude remaining above $100/barrel.
For FCPO, the immediate question is whether domestic buying can absorb the weakness coming from China and competing oils. Unless Dalian palm and CBOT soyoil recover, upside momentum may
👍1
🌴 Malaysian Palm Oil Forum (MPOF) Kuala Lumpur 2026
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) will host the 2nd Malaysian Palm Oil Forum Kuala Lumpur 2026 on 7 October 2026 at Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur.
This year’s theme, “Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment,” comes at an important time for the global oils and fats industry, as changing trade flows, sustainability requirements and geopolitical developments continue to reshape international markets.
The forum will bring together industry leaders, market experts, policymakers and international buyers to exchange insights, discuss emerging opportunities and explore the outlook for the palm oil industry.
📅 7 October 2026
📍 Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur
🌱 Theme: Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment
🎟 Early Bird Rate: RM1,000
💰 Save RM250 off the standard registration fee
🍽 Includes the MPOC Gala Dinner 2026
A valuable opportunity for industry players to connect, exchange market perspectives and strengthen international business relationships.
Programme, speakers & registration:
MPOF Kuala Lumpur 2026 – MPOC
#MPOFKL2026 #MalaysianPalmOil #PalmOil #MPOC #SustainableGrowth #VegetableOils #Commodities #GlobalTrade https://www.mpoc.org.my/malaysian-palm-oil-forum-mpof-kuala-lumpur-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) will host the 2nd Malaysian Palm Oil Forum Kuala Lumpur 2026 on 7 October 2026 at Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur.
This year’s theme, “Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment,” comes at an important time for the global oils and fats industry, as changing trade flows, sustainability requirements and geopolitical developments continue to reshape international markets.
The forum will bring together industry leaders, market experts, policymakers and international buyers to exchange insights, discuss emerging opportunities and explore the outlook for the palm oil industry.
📅 7 October 2026
📍 Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur
🌱 Theme: Sustainable Growth in an Era of Geopolitical Realignment
🎟 Early Bird Rate: RM1,000
💰 Save RM250 off the standard registration fee
🍽 Includes the MPOC Gala Dinner 2026
A valuable opportunity for industry players to connect, exchange market perspectives and strengthen international business relationships.
Programme, speakers & registration:
MPOF Kuala Lumpur 2026 – MPOC
#MPOFKL2026 #MalaysianPalmOil #PalmOil #MPOC #SustainableGrowth #VegetableOils #Commodities #GlobalTrade https://www.mpoc.org.my/malaysian-palm-oil-forum-mpof-kuala-lumpur-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
👍1
🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 21 SEPTEMBER 2026
📉 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BEARISH
FCPO remains under short-term pressure after slipping below the RM4,900 area. The market is now approaching the next important support around RM4,870.
The inability to hold above RM4,900 suggests the current consolidation could extend lower before buyers return.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,870 could expose the next support zone:
RM4,870 → RM4,840 → RM4,810
The RM4,810–4,840 area is particularly important because it represents the lower boundary of the broader consolidation.
A decisive break below RM4,810 would materially weaken the structure and could open a deeper correction toward approximately RM4,640.
📈 Upside Scenario
FCPO needs to recover above approximately RM4,900 to ease immediate downside pressure.
A successful recovery could bring:
RM4,900 → RM4,930 → RM4,960
Beyond this, the major resistance area remains around RM5,030.
A sustained break above RM5,030 would signal that the broader consolidation is resolving to the upside.
📊 Bigger Picture
The broader market remains trapped within approximately:
RM4,810 ↔ RM5,030
Until FCPO decisively leaves this range, the medium-term direction remains uncertain.
A break below RM4,810 would strengthen the bearish reversal scenario, while a break above RM5,030 would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario.
Importantly, the broader wave structure still leaves room for another upward move, so the current decline does not yet confirm a major bearish reversal.
💭 My View
I remain cautious in the short term, but I am not bearish on the broader structure yet.
The loss of RM4,900 increases the probability of testing RM4,870, and possibly RM4,840–4,810 if selling pressure continues.
For me, RM4,810 is the key level. As long as FCPO remains above this area, I would continue to view the weakness as part of the broader consolidation rather than confirmation of a new downtrend.
If buyers defend the lower support zone and FCPO recovers above RM4,900, I would watch for a rebound toward RM4,930–4,960. The larger bullish signal, however, would only come with a breakout above RM5,030.
Below RM4,810: bearish structure strengthens.
Above RM4,900: short-term pressure eases.
Above RM4,960: recovery gains momentum.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bearish ↘
Medium term: Neutral with upside potential ↔↗
Key support zone: RM4,810–4,870
Key resistance zone: RM4,900–4,960
Broader consolidation: RM4,810–5,030/MT
📉 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BEARISH
FCPO remains under short-term pressure after slipping below the RM4,900 area. The market is now approaching the next important support around RM4,870.
The inability to hold above RM4,900 suggests the current consolidation could extend lower before buyers return.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,870 could expose the next support zone:
RM4,870 → RM4,840 → RM4,810
The RM4,810–4,840 area is particularly important because it represents the lower boundary of the broader consolidation.
A decisive break below RM4,810 would materially weaken the structure and could open a deeper correction toward approximately RM4,640.
📈 Upside Scenario
FCPO needs to recover above approximately RM4,900 to ease immediate downside pressure.
A successful recovery could bring:
RM4,900 → RM4,930 → RM4,960
Beyond this, the major resistance area remains around RM5,030.
A sustained break above RM5,030 would signal that the broader consolidation is resolving to the upside.
📊 Bigger Picture
The broader market remains trapped within approximately:
RM4,810 ↔ RM5,030
Until FCPO decisively leaves this range, the medium-term direction remains uncertain.
A break below RM4,810 would strengthen the bearish reversal scenario, while a break above RM5,030 would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario.
Importantly, the broader wave structure still leaves room for another upward move, so the current decline does not yet confirm a major bearish reversal.
💭 My View
I remain cautious in the short term, but I am not bearish on the broader structure yet.
The loss of RM4,900 increases the probability of testing RM4,870, and possibly RM4,840–4,810 if selling pressure continues.
For me, RM4,810 is the key level. As long as FCPO remains above this area, I would continue to view the weakness as part of the broader consolidation rather than confirmation of a new downtrend.
If buyers defend the lower support zone and FCPO recovers above RM4,900, I would watch for a rebound toward RM4,930–4,960. The larger bullish signal, however, would only come with a breakout above RM5,030.
Below RM4,810: bearish structure strengthens.
Above RM4,900: short-term pressure eases.
Above RM4,960: recovery gains momentum.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bearish ↘
Medium term: Neutral with upside potential ↔↗
Key support zone: RM4,810–4,870
Key resistance zone: RM4,900–4,960
Broader consolidation: RM4,810–5,030/MT
👍1
SPPOMA 1st-20th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.58%
OER. : +0.45%
Prod : +21.32%
SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod : +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
Yield : +18.58%
OER. : +0.45%
Prod : +21.32%
SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod : +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
👍1
Malaysia 1-20 Sep vs 1-20 Aug palm oil exports (in tonnes)
Amspec: 608,120 vs 807,592 (down 199,472 or -24.70%)
ITS: 714,012 vs 819,141 (down 105,129 or -12.83%)
Amspec: 608,120 vs 807,592 (down 199,472 or -24.70%)
ITS: 714,012 vs 819,141 (down 105,129 or -12.83%)
👍1
🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 22 SEPTEMBER 2026
📈 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BULLISH
FCPO has shown signs of stabilisation after finding buying support around the RM4,840 area. The subsequent rebound suggests that the recent correction from above RM5,000 may be losing momentum.
The immediate focus now shifts back toward the RM4,930–4,960 resistance zone.
📈 Upside Scenario
If FCPO holds above the immediate support area and continues recovering, the next upside targets are:
RM4,930 → RM4,960 → RM5,000 → RM5,030
The RM4,930–4,960 zone is the first important resistance area.
A sustained break above RM4,960 would improve momentum considerably and put the psychological RM5,000 level back into focus. Beyond that, RM5,030 remains the major structural breakout level.
📉 Downside Scenario
Immediate support is located around RM4,870.
A sustained break below this level could expose:
RM4,870 → RM4,840 → RM4,810
The RM4,810–4,840 region remains the major support zone. Another successful defence of this area would reinforce the broader consolidation structure.
A decisive break below RM4,810, however, would materially weaken the outlook.
📊 Bigger Picture
FCPO continues to trade within a broad consolidation range of approximately:
RM4,810 ↔ RM5,030
The market has repeatedly struggled near the upper boundary while attracting buying interest near the lower part of the range.
Until either boundary breaks decisively, the broader direction remains unresolved.
Above RM5,030: bullish breakout from consolidation.
Below RM4,810: bearish breakdown from consolidation.
💭 My View
I am slightly more positive today after FCPO successfully rebounded from the lower support area.
The reaction around RM4,840 is encouraging and suggests buyers are still willing to defend the lower part of the broader range. In the near term, I see room for FCPO to retest RM4,930–4,960.
For me, RM4,870 is now the key short-term level. Holding above it keeps the rebound scenario alive. If RM4,870 fails, another test of RM4,840–4,810 becomes likely.
I would still avoid treating the rebound as a full bullish breakout until FCPO clears RM5,030. For now, I see it as a recovery within the larger RM4,810–5,030 consolidation.
Below RM4,870: rebound weakens.
Above RM4,930: recovery strengthens.
Above RM4,960: momentum turns more bullish.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout confirmed.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bullish ↗
Medium term: Neutral with upside potential ↔↗
Key support zone: RM4,840–4,870
Key resistance zone: RM4,930–4,960
Broader consolidation: RM4,810–5,030/MT
📈 Short-Term Bias: NEUTRAL / MILDLY BULLISH
FCPO has shown signs of stabilisation after finding buying support around the RM4,840 area. The subsequent rebound suggests that the recent correction from above RM5,000 may be losing momentum.
The immediate focus now shifts back toward the RM4,930–4,960 resistance zone.
📈 Upside Scenario
If FCPO holds above the immediate support area and continues recovering, the next upside targets are:
RM4,930 → RM4,960 → RM5,000 → RM5,030
The RM4,930–4,960 zone is the first important resistance area.
A sustained break above RM4,960 would improve momentum considerably and put the psychological RM5,000 level back into focus. Beyond that, RM5,030 remains the major structural breakout level.
📉 Downside Scenario
Immediate support is located around RM4,870.
A sustained break below this level could expose:
RM4,870 → RM4,840 → RM4,810
The RM4,810–4,840 region remains the major support zone. Another successful defence of this area would reinforce the broader consolidation structure.
A decisive break below RM4,810, however, would materially weaken the outlook.
📊 Bigger Picture
FCPO continues to trade within a broad consolidation range of approximately:
RM4,810 ↔ RM5,030
The market has repeatedly struggled near the upper boundary while attracting buying interest near the lower part of the range.
Until either boundary breaks decisively, the broader direction remains unresolved.
Above RM5,030: bullish breakout from consolidation.
Below RM4,810: bearish breakdown from consolidation.
💭 My View
I am slightly more positive today after FCPO successfully rebounded from the lower support area.
The reaction around RM4,840 is encouraging and suggests buyers are still willing to defend the lower part of the broader range. In the near term, I see room for FCPO to retest RM4,930–4,960.
For me, RM4,870 is now the key short-term level. Holding above it keeps the rebound scenario alive. If RM4,870 fails, another test of RM4,840–4,810 becomes likely.
I would still avoid treating the rebound as a full bullish breakout until FCPO clears RM5,030. For now, I see it as a recovery within the larger RM4,810–5,030 consolidation.
Below RM4,870: rebound weakens.
Above RM4,930: recovery strengthens.
Above RM4,960: momentum turns more bullish.
Above RM5,030: broader bullish breakout confirmed.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bullish ↗
Medium term: Neutral with upside potential ↔↗
Key support zone: RM4,840–4,870
Key resistance zone: RM4,930–4,960
Broader consolidation: RM4,810–5,030/MT
👍1
🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 22 SEPTEMBER 2026
📊 Market Overview
Palm oil starts the session with a mixed but improving vegetable-oil backdrop. Stronger CBOT soybeans and soyoil provide support, while China's vegetable-oil complex is mixed and crude oil has fallen sharply from last week's highs.
At the same time, MPOC's latest outlook strengthens the medium-term fundamental picture, with weather risks and a potentially tighter 2027 supply-demand balance expected to support CPO.
🌴 Malaysia – NEAR-TERM STOCK PRESSURE
Malaysia's August CPO production increased 1.4% month-on-month to 1.81 million tonnes, while August exports declined 7.5% to 1.29 million tonnes.
The combination pushed Malaysian palm oil stocks to 2.82 million tonnes, creating a significant near-term supply cushion.
However, production has now remained below year-earlier levels for six consecutive months. MPOC also expects production and inventories to ease after the seasonal September–October production peak.
Full-year Malaysian exports are projected around 16 million tonnes, approximately 5.2% higher than 2025.
🌦 Weather – INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
Weather is becoming one of the more important medium-term factors.
Dry conditions associated with El Niño have intensified across Southeast Asia. August rainfall was reported around 60% below average in Indonesia and around 30% below average in Malaysia.
Because weather stress generally affects palm yields with a lag of around six to nine months, the main impact would be expected in 2027 rather than immediately.
Oil World forecasts 2027 palm production declining by approximately 1.9 million tonnes in Indonesia and 0.7 million tonnes in Malaysia.
🇮🇩 Indonesia – STRUCTURALLY SUPPORTIVE
Indonesia's combination of stronger domestic biodiesel demand and potentially lower production could tighten export availability next year.
Exports are projected to decline by almost 3 million tonnes in 2027, while Malaysia's exports are expected to remain near 16 million tonnes.
This could increase Malaysia's importance as an international supplier if Indonesian availability tightens.
🌱 Soy Complex – SUPPORTIVE
CBOT soybeans rallied strongly, with November soybeans around $13.28/bu, supported by expectations surrounding this week's Trump-Xi meeting and the possibility of increased Chinese purchases.
December soyoil also recovered to around 68.85 cents/lb, up 0.63 cent.
This is supportive for palm oil because stronger soyoil improves palm's relative pricing environment.
🇨🇳 China – MIXED
China's vegetable-oil market provided mixed signals.
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,964, +67
Dalian soybeans: around CNY5,032–5,053, higher
Dalian palm oil: initially CNY9,901, +25, but later around CNY9,859, -17
The strength in soyoil is supportive, but the reversal in Dalian palm suggests buying momentum remains limited.
🛢 Energy – MAJOR VARIABLE
Crude oil has fallen sharply from last week's elevated levels, with October crude around $96/barrel, while Brent was around $100/barrel.
That removes some immediate energy-market support for palm oil.
Nevertheless, MPOC highlighted that biofuel economics remain favourable. By mid-September, gasoil prices had risen much faster year-to-date than CPO, improving palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock.
MPOC estimates Indonesian domestic CPO was trading roughly US$600/tonne below ICE gasoil in September.
Energy therefore remains a major swing factor: another sharp crude decline would be bearish, while renewed energy-market strength could quickly restore support.
💱 Ringgit – LESS SUPPORTIVE
USD/MYR has fallen toward 4.07, with technical indications pointing toward further ringgit strength.
A stronger MYR is generally less supportive for FCPO because it makes Malaysian palm oil relatively more expensive for foreign buyers.
This is one of the factors that could limit the upside despite stronger soy markets.
🌍 2027 Supply Outlook – BULLISH RISK
The most significant fundamental development is the potential tightening of the global vegetable-oil balance next year.
Global
📊 Market Overview
Palm oil starts the session with a mixed but improving vegetable-oil backdrop. Stronger CBOT soybeans and soyoil provide support, while China's vegetable-oil complex is mixed and crude oil has fallen sharply from last week's highs.
At the same time, MPOC's latest outlook strengthens the medium-term fundamental picture, with weather risks and a potentially tighter 2027 supply-demand balance expected to support CPO.
🌴 Malaysia – NEAR-TERM STOCK PRESSURE
Malaysia's August CPO production increased 1.4% month-on-month to 1.81 million tonnes, while August exports declined 7.5% to 1.29 million tonnes.
The combination pushed Malaysian palm oil stocks to 2.82 million tonnes, creating a significant near-term supply cushion.
However, production has now remained below year-earlier levels for six consecutive months. MPOC also expects production and inventories to ease after the seasonal September–October production peak.
Full-year Malaysian exports are projected around 16 million tonnes, approximately 5.2% higher than 2025.
🌦 Weather – INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
Weather is becoming one of the more important medium-term factors.
Dry conditions associated with El Niño have intensified across Southeast Asia. August rainfall was reported around 60% below average in Indonesia and around 30% below average in Malaysia.
Because weather stress generally affects palm yields with a lag of around six to nine months, the main impact would be expected in 2027 rather than immediately.
Oil World forecasts 2027 palm production declining by approximately 1.9 million tonnes in Indonesia and 0.7 million tonnes in Malaysia.
🇮🇩 Indonesia – STRUCTURALLY SUPPORTIVE
Indonesia's combination of stronger domestic biodiesel demand and potentially lower production could tighten export availability next year.
Exports are projected to decline by almost 3 million tonnes in 2027, while Malaysia's exports are expected to remain near 16 million tonnes.
This could increase Malaysia's importance as an international supplier if Indonesian availability tightens.
🌱 Soy Complex – SUPPORTIVE
CBOT soybeans rallied strongly, with November soybeans around $13.28/bu, supported by expectations surrounding this week's Trump-Xi meeting and the possibility of increased Chinese purchases.
December soyoil also recovered to around 68.85 cents/lb, up 0.63 cent.
This is supportive for palm oil because stronger soyoil improves palm's relative pricing environment.
🇨🇳 China – MIXED
China's vegetable-oil market provided mixed signals.
Dalian soyoil: CNY8,964, +67
Dalian soybeans: around CNY5,032–5,053, higher
Dalian palm oil: initially CNY9,901, +25, but later around CNY9,859, -17
The strength in soyoil is supportive, but the reversal in Dalian palm suggests buying momentum remains limited.
🛢 Energy – MAJOR VARIABLE
Crude oil has fallen sharply from last week's elevated levels, with October crude around $96/barrel, while Brent was around $100/barrel.
That removes some immediate energy-market support for palm oil.
Nevertheless, MPOC highlighted that biofuel economics remain favourable. By mid-September, gasoil prices had risen much faster year-to-date than CPO, improving palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock.
MPOC estimates Indonesian domestic CPO was trading roughly US$600/tonne below ICE gasoil in September.
Energy therefore remains a major swing factor: another sharp crude decline would be bearish, while renewed energy-market strength could quickly restore support.
💱 Ringgit – LESS SUPPORTIVE
USD/MYR has fallen toward 4.07, with technical indications pointing toward further ringgit strength.
A stronger MYR is generally less supportive for FCPO because it makes Malaysian palm oil relatively more expensive for foreign buyers.
This is one of the factors that could limit the upside despite stronger soy markets.
🌍 2027 Supply Outlook – BULLISH RISK
The most significant fundamental development is the potential tightening of the global vegetable-oil balance next year.
Global
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production of the four major vegetable oils is projected to increase by approximately 3.1 million tonnes in 2027, while consumption is expected to increase by around 6.1 million tonnes.
If realised, demand growth would substantially exceed additional production, with lower Southeast Asian palm production expected to be a major contributor to the tightening.
Weather developments during October and November will therefore be particularly important for assessing the size of the potential 2027 supply impact.
💭 My View
I see the current market as mixed in the short term but increasingly constructive for 2027.
Near-term upside may remain limited by high Malaysian stocks, seasonal production, the stronger ringgit and the recent fall in crude oil. These factors argue against becoming too bullish purely on the current rebound.
However, the medium-term fundamentals are becoming more supportive. Dry weather, potentially lower Malaysian and Indonesian production, stronger Indonesian domestic biodiesel consumption and a tightening global vegetable-oil balance could create a significantly different supply picture in 2027.
For the remainder of 2026, I would therefore expect volatility and consolidation rather than a one-way move. RM4,700 becomes an important broader fundamental reference, while the technical RM4,810–5,030 range remains more relevant for the immediate market.
🔎 Overall Market View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bullish ↔↗
Medium term: Constructive ↗
Main support: Soy complex, weather risk, biodiesel demand
Main pressure: High stocks, stronger MYR, weaker crude
Key 2027 factor: Potential Southeast Asian production decline
MPOC 2026 price view: CPO expected to remain above RM4,700/MT through the rest of the year.
The market currently has comfortable stocks but increasingly important forward supply risks. That combination could keep near-term prices volatile while providing a stronger fundamental floor as attention gradually shifts toward 2027.
If realised, demand growth would substantially exceed additional production, with lower Southeast Asian palm production expected to be a major contributor to the tightening.
Weather developments during October and November will therefore be particularly important for assessing the size of the potential 2027 supply impact.
💭 My View
I see the current market as mixed in the short term but increasingly constructive for 2027.
Near-term upside may remain limited by high Malaysian stocks, seasonal production, the stronger ringgit and the recent fall in crude oil. These factors argue against becoming too bullish purely on the current rebound.
However, the medium-term fundamentals are becoming more supportive. Dry weather, potentially lower Malaysian and Indonesian production, stronger Indonesian domestic biodiesel consumption and a tightening global vegetable-oil balance could create a significantly different supply picture in 2027.
For the remainder of 2026, I would therefore expect volatility and consolidation rather than a one-way move. RM4,700 becomes an important broader fundamental reference, while the technical RM4,810–5,030 range remains more relevant for the immediate market.
🔎 Overall Market View
Short term: Neutral / Mildly Bullish ↔↗
Medium term: Constructive ↗
Main support: Soy complex, weather risk, biodiesel demand
Main pressure: High stocks, stronger MYR, weaker crude
Key 2027 factor: Potential Southeast Asian production decline
MPOC 2026 price view: CPO expected to remain above RM4,700/MT through the rest of the year.
The market currently has comfortable stocks but increasingly important forward supply risks. That combination could keep near-term prices volatile while providing a stronger fundamental floor as attention gradually shifts toward 2027.
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🌴 CRUDE PALM OIL TECHNICAL UPDATE | 25 SEPTEMBER 2026
📉 Short-Term Bias: BEARISH
FCPO remains under pressure after the recent rebound failed to hold. The market is now approaching an important support area around RM4,730.
The broader technical structure has weakened following the break below the previous consolidation zone.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,730 could extend the decline toward:
RM4,730 → RM4,710–4,680 → RM4,620
The RM4,680–4,710 area is the next important support zone. If selling pressure continues through this area, the broader technical structure points toward approximately RM4,620.
📈 Upside Scenario
For the short-term picture to improve, FCPO first needs to recover above approximately RM4,770.
RM4,770 → RM4,800 → RM4,820
A sustained move above RM4,820 would reduce immediate downside pressure and suggest that the market is attempting a stronger recovery.
📊 Bigger Picture
The previous consolidation near the RM5,030 region has developed into a bearish top structure, while the subsequent rebound failed to restore the earlier range.
The market is therefore entering an important area where buyers need to defend RM4,680–4,730 to prevent a deeper correction.
💭 My View
I remain cautious in the near term as the technical structure currently favours further downside.
The RM4,730 level is particularly important. If it holds, FCPO could attempt another rebound toward RM4,770–4,820.
However, a decisive break below RM4,730 would increase the probability of testing RM4,710–4,680. If that zone also fails, I would watch RM4,620 as the next major downside area.
Below RM4,730: bearish pressure strengthens.
Above RM4,770: short-term recovery improves.
Above RM4,820: bearish momentum begins to weaken materially.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Bearish ↘
Medium term: Cautious / Bearish while below RM4,820 ↘
Expected near-term range: RM4,680–4,820/MT
📉 Short-Term Bias: BEARISH
FCPO remains under pressure after the recent rebound failed to hold. The market is now approaching an important support area around RM4,730.
The broader technical structure has weakened following the break below the previous consolidation zone.
🎯 Downside Scenario
A sustained break below RM4,730 could extend the decline toward:
RM4,730 → RM4,710–4,680 → RM4,620
The RM4,680–4,710 area is the next important support zone. If selling pressure continues through this area, the broader technical structure points toward approximately RM4,620.
📈 Upside Scenario
For the short-term picture to improve, FCPO first needs to recover above approximately RM4,770.
RM4,770 → RM4,800 → RM4,820
A sustained move above RM4,820 would reduce immediate downside pressure and suggest that the market is attempting a stronger recovery.
📊 Bigger Picture
The previous consolidation near the RM5,030 region has developed into a bearish top structure, while the subsequent rebound failed to restore the earlier range.
The market is therefore entering an important area where buyers need to defend RM4,680–4,730 to prevent a deeper correction.
💭 My View
I remain cautious in the near term as the technical structure currently favours further downside.
The RM4,730 level is particularly important. If it holds, FCPO could attempt another rebound toward RM4,770–4,820.
However, a decisive break below RM4,730 would increase the probability of testing RM4,710–4,680. If that zone also fails, I would watch RM4,620 as the next major downside area.
Below RM4,730: bearish pressure strengthens.
Above RM4,770: short-term recovery improves.
Above RM4,820: bearish momentum begins to weaken materially.
🔎 Overall Technical View
Short term: Bearish ↘
Medium term: Cautious / Bearish while below RM4,820 ↘
Expected near-term range: RM4,680–4,820/MT
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Malaysia 1-25 Sep vs 1-25 Aug palm oil exports (in tonnes)
Amspec: 763,202 vs 1,008,211 (down 245,009 or -24.30%)
Amspec: 763,202 vs 1,008,211 (down 245,009 or -24.30%)
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🌴 PALM OIL MARKET UPDATE | 25 SEPTEMBER 2026
Palm oil is facing near-term pressure from sharply improving Malaysian production and weaker exports, while elevated energy prices continue to provide an important supportive factor.
🇲🇾 Malaysia – Production Surges
MPOA estimates Malaysian production for 1–20 September rose 18.9%, with particularly strong growth in East Malaysia:
Peninsular Malaysia: +12.0%
Sabah: +33.8%
Sarawak: +23.7%
Overall Malaysia: +18.9%
This strong production recovery increases the risk of further inventory accumulation if exports remain weak.
📦 Exports – Major Headwind
Amspec estimates Malaysia's palm oil exports during 1–25 September at 763,202 MT, compared with 1,008,211 MT during 1–25 August — a decline of approximately 24.3%.
The combination of higher production + weaker exports is currently the strongest bearish fundamental factor for CPO.
🛢 Energy Market – Supportive
Oil prices jumped roughly 3% amid renewed Middle East supply concerns. Brent was around US$106.60/bbl in the morning update.
Higher energy prices improve palm oil's relative attractiveness for biodiesel and could provide underlying support despite weaker palm fundamentals.
🌱 Competing Oils
Soybeans weakened as the market awaited concrete outcomes from US-China trade discussions, while soybean oil also remained under pressure. Canola, however, finished higher.
This leaves the broader vegetable-oil complex mixed rather than providing a clear bullish signal for palm.
💱 Currency
USD/MYR strengthened, with the pair trading around 4.08–4.09. A weaker ringgit can improve the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil exports in USD terms, offering some support.
💰 Physical Market – Malaysia FOB
RBD Palm Olein indications:
Oct: US$1,150/MT
Nov: US$1,170/MT
Dec: US$1,190/MT
The forward curve remains at a premium, with JFM around US$1,231.50/MT.
💭 My View
Near-term fundamentals have turned more bearish.
The biggest concern is the combination of +18.9% production growth against a 24.3% decline in exports. If this continues through the end of September, Malaysian inventories could rise further and keep pressure on CPO.
However, energy prices above US$100/bbl remain an important counterweight. Continued Middle East supply disruptions could strengthen biodiesel economics and limit the downside.
For now, I would therefore expect volatile trading with a bearish near-term bias, while watching whether strong energy markets can establish a floor.
Bearish: rising production + weak exports
Bullish: high crude oil + biodiesel economics + weaker MYR
Key technical area: RM4,680–4,730
Recovery area: RM4,770–4,820
🔎 Overall Market View
Short term: Bearish ↘
Fundamentals: Bearish ↘
Energy influence: Bullish ↗
Overall: Cautious / Bearish, with energy prices limiting downside
Palm oil is facing near-term pressure from sharply improving Malaysian production and weaker exports, while elevated energy prices continue to provide an important supportive factor.
🇲🇾 Malaysia – Production Surges
MPOA estimates Malaysian production for 1–20 September rose 18.9%, with particularly strong growth in East Malaysia:
Peninsular Malaysia: +12.0%
Sabah: +33.8%
Sarawak: +23.7%
Overall Malaysia: +18.9%
This strong production recovery increases the risk of further inventory accumulation if exports remain weak.
📦 Exports – Major Headwind
Amspec estimates Malaysia's palm oil exports during 1–25 September at 763,202 MT, compared with 1,008,211 MT during 1–25 August — a decline of approximately 24.3%.
The combination of higher production + weaker exports is currently the strongest bearish fundamental factor for CPO.
🛢 Energy Market – Supportive
Oil prices jumped roughly 3% amid renewed Middle East supply concerns. Brent was around US$106.60/bbl in the morning update.
Higher energy prices improve palm oil's relative attractiveness for biodiesel and could provide underlying support despite weaker palm fundamentals.
🌱 Competing Oils
Soybeans weakened as the market awaited concrete outcomes from US-China trade discussions, while soybean oil also remained under pressure. Canola, however, finished higher.
This leaves the broader vegetable-oil complex mixed rather than providing a clear bullish signal for palm.
💱 Currency
USD/MYR strengthened, with the pair trading around 4.08–4.09. A weaker ringgit can improve the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil exports in USD terms, offering some support.
💰 Physical Market – Malaysia FOB
RBD Palm Olein indications:
Oct: US$1,150/MT
Nov: US$1,170/MT
Dec: US$1,190/MT
The forward curve remains at a premium, with JFM around US$1,231.50/MT.
💭 My View
Near-term fundamentals have turned more bearish.
The biggest concern is the combination of +18.9% production growth against a 24.3% decline in exports. If this continues through the end of September, Malaysian inventories could rise further and keep pressure on CPO.
However, energy prices above US$100/bbl remain an important counterweight. Continued Middle East supply disruptions could strengthen biodiesel economics and limit the downside.
For now, I would therefore expect volatile trading with a bearish near-term bias, while watching whether strong energy markets can establish a floor.
Bearish: rising production + weak exports
Bullish: high crude oil + biodiesel economics + weaker MYR
Key technical area: RM4,680–4,730
Recovery area: RM4,770–4,820
🔎 Overall Market View
Short term: Bearish ↘
Fundamentals: Bearish ↘
Energy influence: Bullish ↗
Overall: Cautious / Bearish, with energy prices limiting downside
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Malaysia 1-25 Sep vs 1-25 Aug palm oil exports (in tonnes)
ITS: 887,557 vs 1,045,204 (down 157,647 or -15.08%)
Amspec: 763,202 vs 1,008,211 (down 245,009 or -24.30%)
ITS: 887,557 vs 1,045,204 (down 157,647 or -15.08%)
Amspec: 763,202 vs 1,008,211 (down 245,009 or -24.30%)
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SPPOMA 1st-25th September 2026
Yield : +18.73%
OER. : +0.40%
Prod: +20.84%
SPPOMA 1st-20th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.58%
OER. : +0.45%
Prod : +21.32%
SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod : +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
Yield : +18.73%
OER. : +0.40%
Prod: +20.84%
SPPOMA 1st-20th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.58%
OER. : +0.45%
Prod : +21.32%
SPPOMA 1st-15th Sep 2026
Yield : +18.75%
OER. : +0.48%
Prod : +21.28%
SPPOMA 1st-10th Sep 2026
Yield : +23.99%
OER. : +0.50%
Prod : +26.62%
SPPOMA 1st-5th Sep 2026
Yield : +32.92%
OER. : +0.43%
Prod : +35.88%
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Malaysia Sept 1-30 vs. Aug 1-31 palm oil exports (in tonnes)
ITS: 1,131,592 vs. 1,364,494 (down 232,902 or -17.07%)
ITS: 1,131,592 vs. 1,364,494 (down 232,902 or -17.07%)
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MPOA: CPO Prodn Sep 1-30 vs. Aug 1-31
Peninsular Malaysia (+) 11.09%
Borneo State (+) 30.77%
Sabah (+) 33.53%
Sarawak (+) 24.49%
Overall Malaysia (+) 19.07%
MPOA: CPO Prodn Sep 1-20 vs. Aug 1-20
Peninsular Malaysia (+) 11.95%
Borneo State (+) 30.50%
Sabah (+) 33.77%
Sarawak (+) 23.72%
Overall Malaysia (+) 18.91%
Peninsular Malaysia (+) 11.09%
Borneo State (+) 30.77%
Sabah (+) 33.53%
Sarawak (+) 24.49%
Overall Malaysia (+) 19.07%
MPOA: CPO Prodn Sep 1-20 vs. Aug 1-20
Peninsular Malaysia (+) 11.95%
Borneo State (+) 30.50%
Sabah (+) 33.77%
Sarawak (+) 23.72%
Overall Malaysia (+) 18.91%
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