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Opening FCPO1 @ MYR4236/MT
Bursa Malaysia CPO prices Mar 18 2330 hours MYT
TECHNICALS-Palm oil may fall into 4,158-4,190 ringgit range

SINGAPORE, March 19 (Reuters) - Palm oil FCPOc3 may fall into a range of 4,158-4,190 ringgit per metric ton, following its failure to break resistance at 4,326 ringgit.

The gap on March 14 proved to be an exhaustion type, as it has been mostly covered. The indication is the uptrend from 3,916 ringgit or 3,811 ringgit has reversed.

A retracement analysis on the uptrend from 3,916 ringgit reveals a target zone of 4,122-4,170 ringgit. Resistance is at 4,274 ringgit, a break above which could trigger a gain into 4,294-4,326 ringgit range.

On the daily chart, a shooting star on March 15 and the following black candlestick on Monday confirmed a reversal of the uptrend. A deep correction may have started.

The correction might extend to 4,147 ringgit, assuming it was caused by the resistance at 4,295 ringgit, the 76.4% projection level of a wave C from 3,520 ringgit.
VEGOILS-Palm oil rises in early trade, tracking Dalian contract

JAKARTA, March 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Tuesday, taking cues from Dalian's palm oil prices, to regain some of their losses during overnight trade.

The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.38% to 4,252 ringgit per metric ton during early trade.

The contract posted a 0.47% gain by the end of Monday's afternoon trade, but reversed direction to lose 1.19% in the overnight trade.

FUNDAMENTALS
Dalian's palm oil contract DCPv1 rose 0.29%, heading for its tenth session of gains, while its soyoil contract DBYv1 and soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOc2 were little changed.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
Malaysia maintained its export tax for crude palm oil at 8% for April and raised its reference price, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-15 were up 8.4% from shipments in February 1-15, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said, while cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services recorded a 3.3% increase in the same period.

Palm oil may fall into a range of 4,158-4,190 ringgit per metric ton, following its failure to break resistance at 4,326 ringgit, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

MARKET NEWS
Japanese shares fell on Tuesday along with regional markets, while the yen was steady heading into a pivotal Bank of Japan meeting that could end eight years of negative interest rates and usher in the nation's first policy tightening since 2007.

Oil prices climbed about 2% to a four-month high on Monday on lower crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the U.S.
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GRAINS-Wheat sags after rally caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine

CANBERRA, March 19 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures edged lower on Tuesday, with ample supply holding prices near their lowest since 2020 despite Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure that threatened exports and pushed prices up more than 2% on Monday.
Soybeans fell slightly, while corn edged higher.

FUNDAMENTALS
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was down 0.1% at $5.42 a bushel, as of 0005 GMT. Prices fell to $5.23-1/2, the lowest since August 2020, on March 11.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 slipped 0.1% to $11.87 a bushel and corn Cv1 was up 0.1% at $4.36-1/4 a bushel. Prices of both grains have risen in recent weeks but remain close to their lowest since 2020.

Russian air attacks at the weekend damaged agricultural enterprises and destroyed several industrial buildings in the Black Sea port of Odesa.

The Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv was also hit, with Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries and Vladimir Putin's re-election as Russia's president raising fears that tensions might escalate.

Speculators hold large short positions in Chicago wheat, as well as in corn and soybeans, making them vulnerable to bursts of short covering that can cause rapid price gains.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat and net sellers of soybeans and corn on Monday, traders said.

Top wheat exporter Russia has flooded the market with cheap supply after two large production years, and a third bumper harvest is expected there this year.

Russian wheat export prices rose last week for the first time since early January, analysts said.

Elsewhere, Ukraine's 2024 corn sowing area is likely to decrease by 4.5% from last year to 3.863 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said, with farmers also set to decrease the sown area of spring wheat and sunflower and increase the sown area of spring barley and soybeans.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest had reached 63% of the planted area as of last Thursday, up 8% from a week earlier, consultants AgRural said on Monday, adding that planting of Brazil's second corn crop was 97% complete.

Drought in the western Canadian province of Alberta is stretching into its fourth year and farmers are planning for water restrictions that threaten production of wheat and beef.

MARKETS NEWS
Global stocks rose on Monday while Treasury yields crept higher ahead of this week's raft of central bank meetings that could end sub-zero interest rates in Japan and set a blueprint for U.S. rate cuts this year.
ICE canola futures rise on technical buying

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, March 18 (Reuters) - ICE canola futures rose on Monday, boosted by technical buying and higher European rapeseed prices.

Canola buying this month has given the oilseed technical momentum, a trader said. The May contract trades above its 20-, 40- and 50-day moving averages.

May canola RSK4 gained $1.10 to settle at $631.70 per metric ton.

May-July canola spread, the most active inter-month spread, traded 7,263 times.

Euronext May rapeseed futures /COMK4 also gained ground. Last week, Germany's farm cooperatives said the country's winter rapeseed crop will fall 6.9% from last year.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures Sv1 fell as the Brazilian harvest progressed.

*All figures in Canadian dollars unless noted
Palm Oil May Pull Back to 3,800-4,000 Ringgit/Ton in April.

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil prices are expected to trade between 3,800-4,000 ringgit in April as the market weighs a recovery in production and inventories in coming months, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

A bullish price movement from current levels is unlikely due to the ample supply of soybeans from South America entering the global market from April, coupled with the gradual seasonal recovery of palm yields in Malaysia, MPOC said in a statement

Low season for palm output to end in March; strong prices in 1Q were mainly due to supply deficits

Palm oil’s price premium over rivals soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oils has widened to around $40-$95 in March; a recovery in soft oil prices is anticipated in April to narrow this price spread

Global palm oil output forecast to rise minimally by 0.1% in 2024, while output in soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oils projected to increase by 2.9%, 3.5%, and 3.9%, respectively
European vegoils Palm oil in tight range on mixed signals

GDYNIA, March 18 (LSEG) - Palm oil on the European vegetable oils market was offered in a tight range on Monday as Malaysian palm oil futures support was limited by expectations of a growing output and lower than expected Malaysian palm oil exports growth.

Asking prices for palm oil were between $7.50 per tonne lower and $7.50 a tonne higher after Malaysian palm oil futures closed between 17 ringgits a tonne lower and 41 ringgits a tonne higher. Prices were also underpinned by firmer energy prices, while lower CBOT soyoil weighed.

At 1700 GMT CBOT soyoil futures were between 0.47 and 0.93 cent per pound down tracking lower Chicago soybeans on harvest progress in Brazil. Sharply higher energy prices limited losses.

Asking prices for EU rapeoil were between five and as much as 20 euros a tonne higher following gains in European rapeseed futures and stronger energy markets. Weakening CBOT soyoil futures limited gains.

Lauric oils were between $15 a tonne higher and $10 a tonne lower on slack demand, while firmer palm oil capped losses.
European feeds-Soymeal dips on South American supply pressure

Gdynia, March 18 (LSEG) - Soybean meal on the European meals and feeds market eased on Monday following softer CBOT soybean futures due to expectations of large supplies of soybeans and soybean meal from Brazil.

Expectations for larger U.S. soybean areas in the next 2024/25 season provided additional pressure. Traders switched their attention to U.S. soy plantings which expected to rise from the current year.

South American soymeal was mostly offered between $1 a tonne up and $8 a tonne down from Friday. The market was under pressure from the progressing soybean harvest in Brazil.

Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 63% of the planted areas as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week. Peak exports of soybeans and soybean meal from Brazil to occur in April and May.

EU rapemeal was mixed between 1 euro per tonne up and 1 euro per tonne lower as traders took a breather on Monday on fears of a shortage of EU rapeseed next 2024/25 season, running from July to June.
EU palm oil spat sours relations with Malaysia, Indonesia

A World Trade Organization (WTO) panel ruled earlier this month on a complaint brought by Malaysia against the European Union over the bloc's plans to phase out the import of palm oil as biofuel because of environmental concerns.

Malaysia, the world's second largest producer of palm oil after Indonesia, brought a case to the WTO in early 2021 against the EU, France and Lithuania.

The Southeast Asian country contested that the EU had violated international trade rules in its policy to phase-out the import of palm oil as a biofuel due to deforestation and emissions risks under the EU's second Renewable Energy Directive (RED II).

Indonesia also filed a case with the WTO but asked for it to be suspended a day before the result of Malaysia's case was announced..... https://www.dw.com/en/eu-palm-oil-spat-sours-relations-with-malaysia-indonesia/a-68606071
Palm oil tracks rival oils higher but output expectations, exports weigh

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed higher on Monday as stronger rival oils helped boost prices, but smaller-than-expected exports and expectation of higher output capped gains.

The benchmark palm oil contract
FCPO1!
for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.55% to 4,243 ringgit ($899.70) by midday break. It rose as much as 1.89% earlier in the session before easing.

The benchmark contract for May delivery gained 4.86% last week, its highest weekly jump since Jan. 12.

The contract rose to track Chicago soybean oil and Dalian's palm oil contract's earlier gains, but some market participants were anticipating a higher production figure from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association, a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said....... https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L2N3FW06H:0-palm-oil-tracks-rival-oils-higher-but-output-expectations-exports-weigh/
VEGOILS-Palm oil drops on profit-taking, lacklustre rival oils

JAKARTA, March 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures shed early strength to edge lower on Tuesday, as traders locked in profits after recent gains and also gauged weakness in rival vegetable oils.

The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.61% to 4,210 ringgit ($890.82) per metric ton by midday. Earlier in the session, the contract rose as much as 0.7%.

"Bursa Malaysia CPO futures opened higher, but quickly seen easing on profit-taking as most of the bullish factors and news are already priced in and market is now lacking a fresh momentum to hold on the recent gains," said Anilkumar Bagani, commodity research head of Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

Weakness in Chicago soyoil futures and the South American soyoil prices has cautioned palm oil buyers, he added, as the palm oils premium over the competition has widened.

Dalian's palm oil contract DCPcv1 was down 0.42%, while its soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 0.43%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOc2 edged 0.1% higher.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Malaysia maintained its export tax for crude palm oil at 8% for April and raised its reference price, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-15 were up 8.4% from shipments in February 1-15, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said, while cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services recorded a 3.3% increase in the same period.

Palm oil may fall into a range of 4,158 ringgit to 4,190 ringgit per metric ton, following its failure to break resistance at 4,326 ringgit, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

($1 = 4.7260 ringgit)
GRAINS-Wheat steadies after rally on Russian attacks on Ukraine

CANBERRA, March 19 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures were unchanged on Tuesday after export-threatening Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports pushed them up more than 2% in the previous session, but prices remained near their lowest since 2020 amid plentiful supply.

Soybean and corn futures rose slightly.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was flat at $5.42-3/4 a bushel by 0208 GMT.

The contract fell to $5.23-1/2, its lowest since August 2020, on March 11, amid a flood of cheap grain from top exporter Russia, which has had two large production years and expects a third this year.

Russian air attacks at the weekend damaged agricultural enterprises and destroyed several industrial buildings in the port of Odesa in Ukraine, another significant grain exporter.

The Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv was also hit, with Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries and Vladimir Putin's re-election as Russia's president raising fears that tensions between the two countries might escalate.

Russian export prices have increased slightly in recent days but remain low, said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.

CBOT wheat is likely to bump along around current levels in the coming months, he said, adding, "there's too much wheat everywhere in the near term."

The market is vulnerable to short term price spikes because speculators hold large short positions in Chicago wheat, corn and soybeans, and price increases can force short-covering.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat and net sellers of soybeans and corn on Monday, traders said.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 rose 0.1% to $11.89 a bushel on Tuesday and corn Cv1 was up 0.3% at $4.37-1/4 a bushel.

Both contracts have risen in recent weeks but remain close to their lowest since 2020 amid plentiful supply from the Americas.

Analysts at Citi said in a note they were "neutral-bearish" on CBOT wheat, corn and soy over the next three months but "outright bearish versus spot and forwards in a 6-12 month horizon."

Prices are likely to average $4.80 a bushel for wheat, $10.50 a bushel for soybeans and $3.75 a bushel for corn at the end of the year, they said.

Elsewhere, Ukraine's 2024 corn sowing area is likely to decrease by 4.5% from last year to 3.863 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said, with farmers also set to decrease the sown area of spring wheat and sunflower and increase the sown area of spring barley and soybeans.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest had reached 63% of the planted area as of last Thursday, up 8% from a week earlier, consultants AgRural said on Monday, adding that planting of Brazil's second corn crop was 97% complete.

Drought in the western Canadian province of Alberta is stretching into its fourth year and farmers are planning for water restrictions that threaten production of wheat and beef.
TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may fall to $11.77-1/2

SINGAPORE, March 19 (Reuters) - CBOT soybean contract SK24 may fall to $11.77-1/2 per bushel, driven by a wave c.

This is the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the March 14 high of $12.17-1/2. It is expected to be roughly equal to the wave a, to travel to $11.77-1/2.

A rising channel suggests a much lower target of $11.63-1/4. Resistance is at $11.91-1/2, a break above which could open the way towards $12.00-1/2 to $12.05-3/4 range.

On the daily chart, a bounce target of $12.33-1/4 has to be temporarily aborted. The drop on Monday basically eliminated the chance of a further bounce towards this level.

A bearish target zone of $11.62-1/2 to $11.71 has been established instead. Only a break above $12.06-3/4 could confirm a continuation of the bounce toward $12.33-1/4.
TOP NEWS Agricultural Commodities

> Weekly USDA wheat ratings improve in Kansas, Texas; Oklahoma declines
> Russian wheat export prices up last week for the first time since early January,
> Large grains, sugar terminal in Brazil projects 15% increase in shipments
> Indonesia tenders to buy 300,000 tons of rice, traders say
> GRAINS-Wheat jumps on rising Black Sea tensions, soy slips
> Ukraine farm ministry forecasts 4.5% fall in 2024 corn sowing area
> SOFTS-Cocoa futures rise more than 4%, hit record highs
> COLUMN-Funds cover CBOT soy and corn shorts, snapping bean selling streak: Braun
> FOCUS-Farmers, oil drillers in parched Alberta brace for water shortage
> Polish farmers block two border crossings with Germany
> Ivory Coast cocoa farmers worried by heat and lack of rain
> Egypt extends sugar export ban for three more months - cabinet
> VEGOILS-Palm oil tracks rival oils higher; output expectations, exports cap gains
> Zimbabwe goes hungry as crops wither amid El Nino drought
Malaysian palm oil producers welcome expected delay in EUDR regulations

Palm oil producers in Malaysia have reportedly welcomed plans from the EU that would see a delay in implementing its much-publicised deforestation regulation policies that have met with fears in South East Asia and Latin America over elevated costs for farmers, reports Neill Barston.

An investigation from the Financial Times noted that European parliament officials had indicated that the new proposed EUDR legislation – which was due to come into force in December 2024, will now not see locations graded by apparent risk, enabling them greater time to meet compliance standards.

Under the terms of the legislation as it was originally put forward, countries would be bracketed into low, medium and high risk zones, but this, according to latest reports, is set to be watered down to initially band all nations under a ‘standard’ rating in order to allow them greater time to review their operations....... https://www.confectioneryproduction.com/news/47526/malaysian-palm-oil-producers-welcome-expected-delay-in-eudr-regulations/
Export Summary-Egypt seeks raw cane sugar; Algeria, Korea buy wheat

March 18 (Reuters) - Snapshot of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils reported by government and private sources, as of the end of business on Monday:

RAW CANE SUGAR TENDER: Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said it was seeking 50,000 metric tons of raw cane sugar from any origin in a tender on behalf of the Egyptian Sugar & Integrated Industries Company. The deadline for offers is March 23.

MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started buying milling wheat in an international tender on Monday for shipment to two ports only, European traders said in initial assessments. The tender seeks a nominal 50,000 metric tons for shipment to the two ports only, generally indicating a relatively small purchase is planned.

FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 125,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in private deals on Friday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Monday. The wheat is believed to be for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between July 2 and 26 for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 10.

FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed group Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Monday.

RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has issued an international tender to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said on Monday. The registration deadline for tender participation is March 20.

PENDING TENDERS:

WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh's state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was Feb. 22, they said.

RICE TENDER: South Korea's state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,800 metric tonnes of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States and China, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is March 21.