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GRAINS-Chicago wheat recoups some losses as US dollar eases

CANBERRA, April 18 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose on Thursday, recouping some of their losses from the previous session, as the U.S. dollar weakened and an exchange in Argentina said less of the crop would be planted there than previously thought.

Still, Chicago wheat remains close to its lowest levels since 2020 due to ample supply from top shipper Russia and lacklustre demand for U.S. exports.

Corn and soybean futures were flat, with both markets well-supplied despite rising concerns over Argentina's corn harvest, which has been hit by a stunt disease spread by leafhopper insects.

FUNDAMENTALS
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.4% at $5.54-1/2 a bushel, as of 0050 GMT, but fell 2.2% on Wednesday and is near a four-year low of $5.24 reached in March.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 fell 0.1% to $11.63-1/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 was flat at $4.30-1/4 a bushel. Both contracts are hovering near four-year lows hit in February.

The dollar slipped from Tuesday's 5-1/2-month high, but its strengthening in recent months has nevertheless made U.S. exports less attractive to global buyers with other currencies.

U.S. wheat export inspections this marketing year are running well behind the pace of the previous season.

Wary of a La Nina weather event and drought, Argentine farmers are likely to plant 5.9 million hectares with wheat in the 2024/25 season, well below the average of the last five years, the Buenos Aires grain exchange said.

The global wheat market, however, is in surplus and the International Grains Council forecasts a rise in world production during the 2024-2025 marketing season.

Traders were monitoring dry conditions in the southern U.S. Plains and parts of Russia, but forecasts predicted rain in parts of both regions.

Low wheat prices mean profit is growing further out of reach for U.S. farmers and many do not expect to break even in 2024.

Farm office FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24 to 10.00 million metric tons from 10.15 million.

In corn markets, the harvest estimates for Argentina, the world's No. 3 exporter, are likely to be cut even further due to a stunt disease, a Rosario grains exchange analyst said.

The exchange slashed its forecast by 6.5 million tons to 50.5 million tons last week and the USDA has also cut its estimate by 6 million tons to 51 million tons.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts on Wednesday and net sellers of wheat and corn, traders said.

MARKETS NEWS
U.S. stock markets closed lower on Wednesday as crude prices tumbled and investors weighed cautious U.S. Federal Reserve commentary and ongoing geopolitical strife against mixed quarterly earnings.
CBOT soybeans close higher on bargain buying after 6-week low

CHICAGO, April 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended higher on Wednesday, bouncing on a round of bargain buying after the most-active July contract SN24 hit a six-week low, traders said.

In addition, prices for exportable soybeans in top global supplier Brazil have firmed in the past few weeks, analysts said, helping to support U.S. soy values.

Most-active CBOT July soybean futures SN24 settled 4-1/4 cents
higher at $11.64-1/4 per bushel, bouncing after a dip to $11.56-3/4, the contract's lowest level since March 6.

CBOT July soymeal SN24 ended up $3 at $339.80 per short ton
and July soyoil BON24 rose 0.08 cent to finish at 45.56 cents per pound.

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export
sales report on Thursday, analysts expected the government to report sales of U.S. old-crop soybeans in the week ended April 11 at 300,000-650,000 metric tons.

Argentina's main agricultural land will likely experience dry
weather over the next seven days, according to a forecast from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, in a boost to farmers facing excessive humidity due to recent rains.
ICE canola futures rise with soybeans, reverse earlier losses

ICE canola futures edged higher on Wednesday with soybeans, reversing losses that pushed canola to a five-week low earlier in the session.

Canola's upside is limited by speculators taking short positions and uncertainty about Canadian spring planting conditions, a trader said.

July canola RSN4 gained 30 cents to settle at $623.80 per metric ton. It earlier touched the lowest most-active price since March 12.

July canola found support at the 50-day moving average around $615 on a most-active continuous chart.

July-November canola spread, the most active inter-month spread, traded 10,405 times.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures Sv1 rose on a round of bargain-buying after the most-active July contract hit a six-week low.

Euronext August rapeseed futures /COMQ4 dipped. Ukraine's APK-Inform agriculture consultancy increased its Ukrainian 2024 rapeseed crop forecast by 4%.

*All figures in Canadian dollars unless noted
Alberta daily canola price as of April 17

April 17 (Reuters) - Closing Canola Average Prices (per tonne, in Canadian dollars) as of April 17 2024:

Region Apr.17 Apr.16 Apr.15
Peace 591.11 590.83 597.83
North Alta 598.16 598.57 605.56
South Alta 597.82 598.34 605.43
European vegoils Palm oil mixed on contrasting signals

GDYNIA, April 17 (LSEG) - Palm oil prices on the European vegetable oils market were mixed on Wednesday. Prices were supported by falling stocks and improved exports data in March. Malaysian palm oil futures plunged to a six-week low on weak demand and weighed.

Asking prices for palm oil were between $20 a tonne up and $20 a tonne down from Tuesday after Malaysian palm oil futures closed between 6 and 62 ringgits per tonne lower.

At 1700 GMT CBOT soyoil futures were between 0.18 cent per pound higher and 0.07 cent per pound lower following Chicago soybeans on ample global supplies and beneficial weather outlook in the U.S.

EU rapeoil was offered five euros a tonne higher for nearby May. More distant positions were offered three and nine euros a tonne lower tracking weak energy prices.

Lauric oils were mixed at close. Coconut oil was offered between $5 a tonne higher and $10 a tonne lower. Palmkernel oil was offered in a wilder range with asking prices between $25 a tonne up and $45 a tonne down. Prices followed bearish sentiment in palm oil and a few aggressive sellers.
European feeds-Soymeal dips on improved US weather, strong dollar

Gdynia, April 17 (LSEG) - Soybean meal on the European meals and feeds market eased on Wednesday following softer CBOT soybean futures due to improved weather outlook for the U.S. that might boost yields. Expected large South American harvest and a stronger U.S. dollar undermined the prices additionally.

South American soymeal was mostly offered between $5 a tonne up and $6 a tonne down from Tuesday. The market came under pressure due to an increase in the soybean harvest in Brazil in the 2023 season (February - January). A revision of Brazilian soybean production in 2023 affected estimates for the country's beginning stocks this year, according to new data released by oilseeds lobby Abiove on Tuesday. With the upward revision pegging Brazil's 2023 soy output at 160.3 million tonnes, a record, beginning stocks have been estimated at 5.9 million tonnes,1.2 million tonnes up than assessed previously.

EU rapemeal was quoted around 7 euros per tonne lower tracking weaker European rapeseed futures amid technical selling.
CIF/FOB Gulf Grain-Soybean barge basis weakens, corn basis flat-up

April 17 (Reuters) - Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export weakened on Wednesday, while corn basis bids remained steady to firmer, traders said.

Traders are watching for weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales data on Thursday to show signs of global demand shifting to Brazil from the United States.

Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, though farmer selling there is estimated to be behind last year's pace. Firming Brazil corn offers provide some support for U.S. export prospects, though, a broker said.

Analysts estimate 2023-24 export sales in the week ended April 11 were 300,000-650,000 metric tons for U.S. soybeans and 300,000-900,000 tons for U.S. corn.

CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in April were bid at 42 cents over the Chicago Board of Trade May futures SK24, down one cent, while May loadings were bid one cent lower at 51 cents over futures.

Export premiums for April soybean loadings at the Gulf were flat at 63 cents over May futures. May loadings were offered at 58 cents over futures, down one cent.

CIF basis bids for corn barges loaded in April were bid two cents higher at 47 cents over CBOT May futures CK24. May barge bids were steady at 51 cents over futures.

Corn export premiums for April loadings remained flat at 53 cents over May futures, while May loadings were offered at 56 cents over futures, up 1 cent.
Brazil soybean production unchanged as harvest comes to close on schedule

2023/24 Brazil soybean production is unchanged at 152.0 [148.8–154.1] million tons, as the harvest season looks to wrap up in few weeks amid stable progress despite recent/expected volatile weather. Our current median estimate is 3 million tons below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 155 million tons, which assumes soybean sowings at 45.9 million hectares and national level yield of 3.38 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Ag Research’s 46 million hectares and 3.30 tph, respectively).

Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has recently pegged soy production and area at 146.5 million tons and 45.2 million hectares, respectively. As of 14 April, Brazil’s soybeans were 83.2% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (15 April), slightly behind last year’s pace of 85%. The latest EC/GFS model forecasts suggest mostly warm and moderate conditions to continue, which should help wrap up the season with little issues.
TOP NEWS Agricultural Commodities

> Argentina corn harvest faces more deep cuts from stunt disease spread
> Argentina wheat planting seen below five-year average on La Nina fears
> GRAINS-Chicago wheat recoups some losses as US dollar eases
> Financial investors reduce net short position in Euronext wheat
> Ukraine publishes 2023 grain harvest result at 60 mln T
> FranceAgriMer cuts 2023/24 non-EU wheat export forecast
> Australia's sugar output likely to rise to 4.2 mln tons in 2024/25, USDA says
> Zimbabwe targets 33% jump in wheat plantings despite El Nino
> Jordan buys about 110,000 T feed barley in tender, traders say
> SOFTS-Robusta coffee hits over 16-year peak, arabica at more than 1-1/2 year high
> JBS Brazil plant temporarily closed over labor irregularities, auditor says
> VEGOILS-Palm oil extends losing streak to end at lowest in six weeks
Ukrainian grain production to drop to 52.4 mln tonnes, oilseed harvest to remain at 21.7 mln tonnes in 2024 ministry

April 17- The Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry has forecast the total production of grains and oilseeds at 74 million tonnes, including 52.4 million tonnes of grains and 21.7 million tonnes of oilseeds, in 2024, Ukrainian media reported. In early 2023, the gross harvest of grains and oilseeds for 2023 was also forecast nearly 13% lower than in the...

MOSCOW. April 17 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry has forecast the total production of grains and oilseeds at 74 million tonnes, including 52.4 million tonnes of grains and 21.7 million tonnes of oilseeds, in 2024, Ukrainian media reported.

In early 2023, the gross harvest of grains and oilseeds for 2023 was also forecast nearly 13% lower than in the previous period, at 63.5 million tonnes, but weather led to an increase of the harvest, Ukrainian media said citing a statement on the Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry's website. Therefore, the total production reached about 82 million tonnes, including over 60 million tonnes of grains and about 22 million tonnes of oilseeds, in 2023, it said.

"The forecasts of gross harvests are preliminary and will be adjusted depending on circumstances, primarily, the weather," the statement said.

Farmers are forecast to harvest 19.2 million tonnes of wheat (22.2 million tonnes in 2023), 4.9 million tonnes of barley (5.7 million tonnes in 2023), and 26.7 million tonnes of corn (30.5 million tonnes in 2023) in 2024, the ministry said.

Soybean harvest is expected to grow to 5.2 million tonnes in 2024 (4.7 million tonnes in 2023). Sunflower production is forecast at 12.4 million tonnes (12.9 million tonnes in 2023) and rapeseed production at 4.1 million tonnes (4.7 million tonnes in 2023).

Crop areas of grains and legumes are forecast at 10.6 million hectares, which is 395,000 hectares less than in 2023. These include 4.3 million hectares of winter wheat (down 300,000 hectares from 2023), spring wheat 200,000 hectares (up 200 hectares), and winter barley 470,000 hectares (down 150,000 hectares). The spring barley crop areas are forecast at 940,000 hectares (up 60,000 hectares) and corn 3.9 millon hectares (down 62,000 hectares).

Crop areas of soybeans are increasing, with an area of 2.2 million hectares expected to be planted in 2024, which is almost 400,000 more than in 2023.

Crop areas of sunflower will be almost the same as in 2023, 5.3 million hectares, and rapeseed 1.5 million hectares, which is 100,000 hectares less than in 2023.
Export Summary-Tunisia seeks durum wheat; Jordan seeks milling wheat

April 17 (Reuters) - Snapshot of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as reported by government and private sources as of the end of business on Wednesday:

DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia's state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 25,000 metric tons of durum wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is April 18.

MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan's state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 23.

BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan's state grain buyer purchased about 110,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender, European traders said.

CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States or South America in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS:

SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tonnes of soymeal, European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender was April 16, they said.

RICE TENDER DELAYED: The deadline for price submissions in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice has been delayed to April 17, European traders said. Results are expected later this week after price negotiations.
Grain Harvest in Belarus planned at 9 mln tonnes for 2024 Ministry

April 17- The grain harvest in Belarus this year is planned to be at least 9 million tonnes, Ivan Kaskevich, deputy head of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food's main crop production department said. "Based on climatic and weather nuances, last year's experience and certain risks, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food is expecting at least 9 million tonnes of grain...

MINSK. April 17 (Interfax) - The grain harvest in Belarus this year is planned to be at least 9 million tonnes (in weight after processing), Ivan Kaskevich, deputy head of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food's main crop production department said.

"Based on climatic and weather nuances, last year's experience and certain risks, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food is expecting at least 9 million tonnes of grain in weight after processing this year, as well as at least 1 million tonnes of rapeseed in net weight (about 1.2 million tonnes in bunker weight)," Kaskevich said, as quoted by BelTA.

The sugar beet harvest is planned to be at least 5 million tonnes, vegetables should reach 568,000 tonnes, fruit and berry crops 225,000 tonnes, and grass feed 9.8 million tonnes, he said.

Kaskevich said that in Belarus this spring more than 2.3 million hectares will be sown, including 600,000 hectares with spring grains and legumes.

This year, due to warm weather, sowing started three weeks earlier than usual, he said. "Moreover, the time gap between the western and eastern regions has begun to increase significantly. We are seeing a pronounced climatic division in the republic. If earlier this was leveled out and smoothly passed, now there is a clearly discernable three-week difference," he said.

"This year, spring is uncharacteristic and early. (...) This year is really breaking records and testing strength. However, we have ready-made equipment, fuel and reserves, there is an understanding of where we are going and how we organized the work," he noted.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko previously said that grain production in Belarus in 2024 should increase to 10 million tonnes (30% versus 2023). "The tasks for 2024 are much more ambitious than yesterday's [last year's] results. It is necessary to produce about 10 million tonnes of grain, 5 million tonnes of sugar beets and more than 1 million tonnes of rapeseed per year," Lukashenko said during a meeting with farmers in Minsk on Tuesday.

"Last year's result was almost a failure; it was not possible to maintain the level of 2022. Farmers missed the harvest target by over 1 million tonnes of grain, 63,000 tonnes of vegetables and 10,000 tonnes of flax fiber. In almost every third organization, the grain yield was below 20 c/ha," the President said.

According to Belstat, the gross harvest of grains and legumes reached 7.7 million tonnes (an 11.5% decrease) in 2023, while rapeseed totaled 0.9 million tonnes (a 12.5% increase), potatoes reached 4 million tonnes (a 2.6% increase), vegetables 2.8 million tonnes (a 3.4% decrease), and sugar beets 4.8 million tonnes (a 14.3% increase).
Because of the reduced grain harvest last year, the Belarusian authorities decided to purchase 0.5 million tonnes of grain from Russia.
Dry weather to prevail over main Argentina farmland over next week -grains exchange

BUENOS AIRES, April 17 (Reuters) - Argentina's main agricultural land will likely experience dry weather over the next seven days, according to a forecast from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) released on Wednesday, in a boost to farmers facing excessive humidity due to recent rains.

Heavy rainfall in recent days came on top of heavy precipitation last month over the South American country's most productive farmland, which left behind soaked soils that had impeded the ability of combine harvesters to enter many areas, which could crimp expected yields.

Argentina is a top global supplier of processed soybeans and other grains, including corn and wheat, with export income representing a major source of hard currency for the cash-strapped government.

"Most of the Southern Cone's agricultural area will see scarce to no precipitation (less than 10 millimeters)" from Wednesday through next Tuesday, according to the exchange's weekly farm weather report.

BdeC added that following recent rains, polar air will continue to cause a cooling effect on most of the agricultural area.

Last week, the exchange cut its soybean crop estimate for the current 2023/24 harvesting season to 51 million metric tons, or down about 3% from its previous estimate, due largely to a heat wave that hit planted areas in January and February.
CPO likely to stay above RM4,000 per tonne

PETALING JAYA: Analysts expect crude palm oil (CPO) to stay lofty above RM4,000 per tonne in the immediate term, but the current price may have peaked for this year.

On April 3, the benchmark CPO futures contract price hit a year-to-date high of RM4,579 per tonne, which reflected the near term tightness in palm oil inventory.

Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB Research), in its latest report, said CPO prices may have peaked due to a stronger pick up in palm oil output from May and hit its seasonal peak in the third quarter 2024 (3Q24).

“This will pressure CPO price on the downside once the market anticipates supply is normalising,” it added........ https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/04/17/cpo-likely-to-stay-above-rm4000-per-tonne
Closing FCPO1 @ MYR3989/MT
TECHNICALS-Intraday targets/key levels
Bursa Malaysia CPO prices Apr 18 2330 hours MYT
Opening FCPO1 @ MYR3979/MT