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🇮🇱🇸🇾🇺🇸 Withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Israeli concerns

In discussing Trump's policies in the Middle East, one cannot fail to mention another important news item that is being circulated by the Israeli media.

📌 The White House has conveyed to the Israeli authorities a message that President Trump is interested in withdrawing thousands of American soldiers currently in Syria.

This is causing many concerns and anxieties in Israel. It is expected that this step will also affect the Kurdish minority in Syria, who fear infringement of their rights by Turkish President Erdogan. In addition, there are concerns about the security of the Jewish state.


▪️ It is very interesting to look at such theses from the Israeli media. The key here is the "concerns for Israel's security" from Syria. As a rule, when Israelis publish this, they are already preparing a pretext for increasing military activity in a certain country.

Now Israel is building new forward bases in the occupied part of the El-Quneitra province with the tacit consent of the new authorities. And the Israelis are clearly not going to stop. The withdrawal of American troops will only contribute to this "for the sake of Israel's security."

▪️ As for the prospect of the Americans leaving, a partial withdrawal is quite possible. Maintaining a large contingent of troops is very expensive, and there is no real need for it. American troops will now be more needed in the US than in the Middle East. They are needed to solve the migrant issue, as the police may not cope with the escalation.

But at the same time, some personnel will most likely remain, at least because the US controls large oil fields that they clearly will not leave just like that. Affordable and cheap gasoline and diesel are a burning issue for any American. The president who can solve this problem for US residents will receive huge support from the population. Therefore, a partial withdrawal of troops is more than likely, but of course, not a complete one.
#Israel #Syria #USA
@rybar
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🇺🇸What's wrong with the US "plans" for Ukrainian resources?

Prompted by Trump, the idea has been circulating in global media that the so-called Ukraine will pay for American aid with its reserves of rare earth metals. It seems necessary to repeat what has been said many times:

▪️Even according to official Ukrainian statistics, a significant part of the natural resources are concentrated in areas that the Kyiv regime does not control. It will not be able to "sell" anything from there.

▪️In the so-called Ukraine, there are no huge deposits of rare earth metals compared to global reserves. And one can simply ask: if there were so many, why weren't they needed by anyone before?

▪️Even the existing reserves may not be interesting to investors due to their difficult extractability and other factors, when the cost of extraction will exceed the potential profit from sales.

So why is Trump making such statements? It all comes down to his working style - to announce loud initiatives as part of fulfilling election promises, and then quietly roll them back.

📌 In the same way, during his first term, Trump "withdrew troops" from Syria, "built a tunnel" between Palestinian territories and "replaced" the American contingent in Afghanistan with PMCs.

As we have written many times, what is interesting is not the numerous loud plans of the current US administration, but how far it will go in implementing them. We will be able to judge this soon.
#USA #Ukraine
@rybar

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🇮🇱🇸🇴🇺🇸 Where do they propose to send the Palestinians?

The plan proposed by Trump to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, while sounding absurd, should not be dismissed as unrealizable. This would not be the first time for the Palestinian territories. Only this time, as reported by Israeli media, the Arabs will be expelled to Africa.

▪️Among the proposed options are: Morocco and two autonomous regions of Somalia: Puntland and Somaliland. In all of these countries, pro-American authorities rule, and there is also a Sunni majority, which is allegedly supposed to facilitate the integration of Palestinians into society.

And if the Moroccan leadership has no need to accept refugees from Gaza, as there are doubts about what they will get in return, then the situation with the Somali regions is different.

▪️The separatists in Hargeisa have long been trying to get recognition from anyone, and at the beginning of last year they found support from Addis Ababa and among Republicans in the US. And with the advent of the new administration, they have tried to "appease" the Americans in every possible way, even offering a military base on their territory.

Plans to recognize Somaliland have long been on the agenda, and most likely will become a bargaining chip in order to force the Somaliland leadership to accept Palestinians. The situation is similar with Puntland.

▪️Thus, just the other day, the US Air Force struck terrorist positions in Puntland. This step was aimed, firstly, to maintain the image of fighters against terrorism, and also to strengthen the ties between the US authorities and the autonomous region. The authorities in Bosaso have severed ties with the federals since last year, so they are also trying to find external support.

🔻Given that there are certainly some contacts between Israel and all these countries, which resulted in a series of high-profile news headlines, Palestinians in the "new land" will remain under the supervision of the Israeli authorities. This is precisely what the ultra-Orthodox will try to achieve, as they will try to prevent the formation of Palestinian organizations even in the far corners.

Of course, no one will think about the living conditions of the Palestinians themselves, who will live in non-Arab-speaking regions under such a scenario.
#Africa #Israel #Somalia #USA
@rybar

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🇷🇺🇸🇦🇺🇸 According to Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund who is part of the delegation visiting Saudi Arabia, progress in negotiations between Russia and the US is possible in the next two to three months.

On the one hand, this once again confirms our previous statements that no breakthrough decisions are expected from the current meetings - this is just the first round of what may become serious negotiations.

At the same time, Dmitriev's words indirectly indicate that the Russian side does not have overly high expectations and is not counting on manna from heaven, allotting a few months for the first results.

The latter is a kind of response to those who, after the telephone conversation between Putin and Trump, for some inexplicable reason believed that the issue of the so-called Ukraine was resolved. As if the hostilities had already ended and there were no heavy battles on the ground.
#Russia #SaudiArabia #USA
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🇺🇸🇺🇦 Donald Trump officially stated that the US is "right now" not providing any defense assistance to Kyiv.

Various global media immediately began quoting his words, but they have no relation to reality.

📌 A couple of days ago, we wrote that despite the seemingly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from Washington, American weapons continue to arrive in the so-called Ukraine in the same volume as before.

American planes have been and continue to deliver military cargo for the AFU to the transit point at the Rzeszów airfield in Poland.

Of course, the Trump administration, known for its sensationalism and speed of decision-making, may at some point actually cut off arms supplies to Kyiv - for example, if Zelenskyy again proves too intractable and does not sign that notorious deal on rare earth metals.

However, the press has already trumpeted that the president of the so-called Ukraine is going to Washington on Friday, and Trump himself hinted that the future agreement with Ukraine on resources could be valued at $1 trillion.

🔻Given these realities, arms supplies to Kyiv are unlikely to end at least until summer (after all, the $4 billion allocated by Biden has already been allocated under contracts), and hostilities will not cease until Russia and the US sign a comprehensive agreement to end the Ukrainian conflict.
#USA
@rybar together with @usaperiodical

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📝US Pressure on the So-Called Ukraine: Half-Hearted Measures📝

Members of the current US administration continue to make loud statements, following not only the campaign rhetoric of the Trump team, but also the recent scandalous meeting at the White House.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo reported that the so-called Ukraine will not receive money until Zelenskyy "comes to the US with peace." And the newly appointed FBI Director Christopher Wray promised to audit the funds allocated to the Kyiv regime.

🖍Although such rhetoric from Washington was not heard before, so far it all comes down to promises of modest retaliatory measures. However, if Zelenskyy maintains his position, the pressure will increase, the question is how quickly the process will go.

🚩So far, it seems that the White House wants not so much to punish Zelenskyy as to force him to demonstratively come to pay homage and publicly repent for his antics, showing the greatness of Trump.

❗️From a political point of view, this logic is not without arguments. However, time is passing, and the lack of tough retaliatory measures against the so-called Ukraine for Zelenskyy's inappropriate behavior in the world is beginning to be perceived as a weakness of the US and the American president personally.
#USA #Ukraine
⭐️ @rybar

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📝A swing at the ruble, a blow at the kopeck: The EU and the so-called Ukraine are changing their rhetoric towards the US📝

Less than a day after the announced halt of US military aid to the so-called Ukraine, Trump stated that Zelensky is ready to sit down at the negotiating table and sign a deal on rare earth metals.

There is also news that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron plan to go to Washington with Zelensky to present their "settlement plan" there.

🖍This is an excellent illustration of how in Europe and in the so-called Ukraine they are allegedly easily ready to abandon US supplies: for all the belligerent rhetoric and pompous statements, they for some reason want to go to the White House for a group bow.

🚩As for Trump himself, as we wrote, it is more important for him not so much to punish the so-called Ukraine, but to get a picture with a repentant Zelensky. This is where it's heading, although we have no doubt about the ability of the Kyiv regime to pull off another stunt.

❗️As for the notorious "resource deal", it is only a pretext for political decisions. And Trump has already stated his intention to make the agreement more beneficial for the US, clearly seeking to present it as a personal success and punishment for Zelensky's intransigence.
#USA #Ukraine
⭐️ @rybar

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📝How does the US assess the power of the European coalition on the so-called Ukraine?📝

Recently, politicians of various caliber have made numerous comments on the possibility of sending a contingent of EU and Canadian countries to the so-called Ukraine as part of the so-called "coalition of goodwill".

The US Vice President Jared Vance did not remain on the sidelines either, who mockingly described the plan of the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as "sending 20,000 soldiers from some random country that hasn't been at war for 30 or 40 years".

🖍The politician's comments on the combat capability of the forces led by the UK and France caused outrage among officials and veterans in both countries. They accused Vance of a dismissive attitude towards hundreds of soldiers who died in joint US operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

🚩In this regard, Vance decided to backtrack a bit and stated that he meant some other countries, and not the French and British. However, as if the armies of Britain and France in terms of combat capability and reserves differ much from other members of the coalition.

❗️In fact, Jared Vance simply voiced approximately what we wrote about this morning. Who knows, maybe the US Vice President is also our subscriber: in this case, Donald Trump definitely has where to take theses for his fiery speeches.
#USA #UK #France #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar

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📝Stopping US aid as a way to explain all the troubles of the so-called Ukraine📝

Ukrainian and Western media have found the main reason to explain potential failures of the AFU at the front: it turns out that it's all because of the suspension of US military aid and the exchange of intelligence information.

The Time magazine reports that hundreds of members of Ukrainian formations have already been killed. After all, there used to be a group of Western officers in the General Staff who helped process satellite data, and now "there is no one left".

🖍In reality, attempts to "shift the blame" on Trump's decision look silly. As we have written before, the real noticeable consequences of the reduction in US support will not come for the AFU immediately, but only after some time.

🚩From an information point of view, this is quite amusing: after all, the same Western media reported that the US contribution to the so-called Ukraine's aid is not decisive, and the share of weapons is only 20%. So you just want to ask, what happened then?

❗️But what is really having an impact is the decline in the morale of the AFU: the realization that such aid will no longer come, hits the opponent in the trenches harder than it seems from the outside. And the effect will only grow.
#USA #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar

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📝US Resumes Supplying GLSDB Bombs to the So-Called Ukraine📝

As reported in Reuters, the new version of the munitions has higher resistance to interference - earlier, it was found that bombs of this type turned out to be not so resistant to the impact of Russian electronic warfare means.

GLSDB is a GBU-39 air bomb with a rocket engine, adapted for launch from HIMARS and MLRS systems. The range of use reaches 150 km, making them an alternative to ATACMS with more modest characteristics.

🖍Although such deliveries always add a threat, there is no "wonder weapon" there - of the entire range of American "high-precision" weapons, the Russian Armed Forces have not yet encountered only JASSM and Tomahawk. And even those ATACMS launches have not been for a long time, which indicates the limited stocks.

🚩The measure is a retaliatory reaction of the United States to Russia's refusal of the current version of the "30-day ceasefire". Moreover, yesterday in Washington, they also did not extend the sanctions exemptions for Russian companies.

❗️However, negotiations will continue, and with such actions, the parties will try to strengthen their position. And the outcome largely depends on how well they can separate the wheat from Trump's bluff.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar

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📝Trump ordered the operation against the Houthis - is it worth the effort?📝

Just a short time ago, the Americans carried out airstrikes on Yemen. The goal is to send a warning signal to Iran, with whom Trump wants to conclude a nuclear deal.

🖍The very fact of launching a military operation against the Houthi movement "Ansar Allah" was expected. The intensification of hostilities in the Middle East is needed by Israel, and half of Trump's cabinet are supporters of the ultra-Orthodox ruling there - Chabad.

🚩Trump has declared Make America Great Again since coming to power, but if we evaluate all his recent actions (the transfer of 2,000-pound bombs, the resettlement of Palestinians in Africa and so on), we get Make Israel Great Again.

🏳️From the perspective of the prospects for the American operation in Yemen - they are not visible. Each strike against the Houthis will be very costly. And how much will the US Armed Forces spend if the fighting drags on for a long time? And knowing the Houthis, it will definitely drag on.

❗️The United States has already tried to suppress "Ansar Allah" by force, and then it didn't work out. And now the result is far from guaranteed.
#Israel #Yemen #USA
⭐️@rybar

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📝Geopolitical Ping-Pong: The Essence of the Putin-Trump Telephone Conversation📝

As rightly noted, 2.5 hours is just 0.0092% of the SMO time. And while the presidents were talking to each other and agreeing on friendly hockey matches, the fronts continue to see both offensive and defensive battles.

We have repeatedly emphasized that we are now in for a kind of diplomatic etiquette: exchange of opinions, discussion of nuances, reflections on peace and ways to achieve it. And that's exactly what happened.

🖍Suspension of strikes on energy, frankly speaking, will allow us to save missiles and drones. Because there is no global significance, it is only an opportunity to stress the local population, and this tactic is already not working very well (however, the stressing of the TCC is much better handled).

🚩 Humanitarian exchanges and the return of the wounded - a beautiful gesture, showing the human face of Russia and the uncivilized nature of the so-called Ukraine. A winning move.

🏳️ Freedom of navigation in the Black Sea is already there: alas, the Russian Black Sea Fleet cannot impose a blockade for objective reasons.

📌 Particular attention is paid to the issues of Iran and Israel: and here Moscow has taken a peaceful position, not moving into radicalism towards either a strategic partner or an influential state that has enough lobbyists in Russia. Everyone is satisfied. And each believes that they have achieved their goals.

❗️ And so a beautiful picture is created from, in essence, demands that do not affect either the conditions for establishing peace or the course of hostilities in any way. And in the end, we get a beautiful story about hockey, the humanism of Russia, and agreements that, yes, we need to continue talking.
#Israel #Iran #Russia #USA #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar

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📝First B-2A Flights to Yemen📝

Four U.S. Air Force B-2A strategic bombers conducted their first flights from Diego Garcia to the Yemen area and back on March 29-30, striking targets belonging to the "Ansar Allah" movement.

✈️This is the first recorded combat sortie of the stealth bombers since their transfer from the United States. Currently, there are five B-2As at Diego Garcia. One more remains at Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii due to technical issues.

🧨As a result of the bombings, the bombers struck three targets in the As-Sakin area near Saada in northern Yemen. According to some reports, a meeting of high-ranking members of the movement was taking place there. Communication facilities and infrastructure in the Amran and Saada provinces were also hit.

📌During the B-2A flight, an MQ-4C UAV was circling off the coast of Yemen, and 6 MQ-1C UAVs and 2 MQ-9A strike drones were patrolling eastern Yemen. The B-2As were escorted by 2 U.S. Air Force F-15s and 2 British Royal Air Force Typhoons.

❗️The first flights of American aircraft to the Middle East have taken place. And against the backdrop of growing tensions in the region, including with Iran, we believe these flights will be very frequent.

High-resolution map

English version

#Yemen #USA
⭐️@rybar

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📝Disarmament of Iraqi Groupings📝
Pros and Cons of a Possible Solution

Reuters journalists, citing 10 senior commanders and Iraqi officials, report that the largest "pro-Iranian" groups in Iraq are ready to disarm to prevent an escalation of the conflict with the US.

According to the latter, this decision followed repeated warnings from the Trump administration to the Iraqi authorities about possible airstrikes against the groups on Iraqi territory.

📌 In the context of this issue, the first thing I would like to note is that there is currently no such influence of Iran in Iraq as is attributed to it. During the war with ISIS, the Iranians, through the IRGC, did indeed have broad powers in Iraq, but this is no longer the case.

Shiite paramilitary formations in Iraq act sovereignly, although they do benefit from technical support from Iranian allies. Certainly, there are units that are in contact with the IRGC, but they are not the dominant ones.

🖍The very fact of possible disarmament is a logical move, as Iraq has been trying to stabilize the domestic political situation in recent years. Investments are being attracted, peaceful life is being established, and there is no need for such a large number of armed units, since ISIS in Iraq no longer poses the former threat.

❗️However, there is an obvious downside: that this decision is being promoted at an extremely inopportune moment for Iraq, if we consider that Syria has turned into a hotbed of terrorism. And if these groups are disarmed, then in the event of a threat, Iraq may face major problems.
#Iraq #Iran #USA
⭐️@rybar

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📝Trump washes his hands📝
Americans are distancing themselves from negotiations on the so-called Ukraine

Today, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce announced the end of US mediation efforts in resolving the conflict in the so-called Ukraine. Now the organization of meetings between delegations will fall on the shoulders of others who are willing, while the US itself will not engage in this.

🖍By pure coincidence, this came right after the signing of the "resource deal", under which 50% of the so-called Ukraine's resource extraction revenues go to a joint fund with the US.

🚩The Trump administration is already trying to present this as a "significant success in achieving peace" against the backdrop of the lack of real results, contrary to pre-election promises.

📌 At the same time, the situation on the battlefield has not changed much in recent months. The course of the negotiations depends not on the statements of American politicians, but on the realities "on the ground", where both sides have not yet exhausted their capabilities.

❗️So talks about a ceasefire within a week or a month look detached from reality. Even more puzzling are the talks about peace as an accomplished fact.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
⭐️ @rybar

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📝U.S. F-16s for the so-called Ukraine📝

The U.S. State Department has approved the transfer of a training complex for F-16 aircraft, equipment, and technical support worth $310.5 million to the so-called Ukraine. In fact, this refers to the supply of spare parts, materials, and surplus property.

Recently, footage has appeared online of the loading of airframes stored at the "aircraft boneyard" in Arizona onto Ukrainian An-124 transport aircraft for transfer to Poland and subsequent delivery to the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime.

🖍Although the F-16s supplied to the AFU have so far only appeared in news reports in the context of losses and friendly fire, the adversary is actively using them, which requires the repair of airframes. The current supply is aimed at replenishing the stock of spare parts.

🚩This is a clear indication that the U.S. does not intend to completely scale down its support for the Kyiv regime, even with all the changes in rhetoric. The only difference is that now the assistance will not be free, and the so-called Ukraine will have to pay for it with resources or European money.

❗️Against this background, talk of an inevitable ceasefire in the near future appears increasingly detached from reality. We repeat again: the probability of this scenario is still determined by the realities on the battlefield - it is from them that diplomacy "dances".
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar

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📝No Money📝

What the "resource deal" will mean for the US

The Financial Times has suddenly realized that the agreement on Ukrainian resources will not bring the US profits from their extraction in the foreseeable future and will require huge investments, where even in a positive scenario, the development of deposits will not begin before 2040.

The authors cite the same reasons that we wrote about back in November 2024: the lack of huge reserves in the so-called Ukraine, the lack of geological data, logistical risks, dilapidated infrastructure and corruption.

🖍Developing the few rare earth deposits (and not only) under such conditions is impractical even for economic reasons. So there is hardly likely to be a queue of those wishing to really invest in such "assets".

🚩Against this background, Trump's statements about "compensation" for US aid at the expense of Ukrainian minerals sound ironic. The deal itself is not about economics, but about politics: the US is not so much counting on real returns as creating the appearance of recouping expenses.

🏳️ In essence, this is not a return on investment, but a tool of pressure. Ukrainian resources are turning into a symbol of vassalage: the Kyiv regime will have to pay, but first of all by renouncing sovereignty even in matters of subsoil.

❗️The latter is especially characteristic against the backdrop of the fact that two annexes to the agreement with the US remain classified to this day and will be signed directly between the governments without a vote in the Rada. Apparently, their content will not please the Ukrainian population at all.
#USA #Ukraine
⭐️ @rybar

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📝Disinformation and Fakes📝
How are Western social media used to disrupt the normalization of Russian-American relations?

Hawks in the West use not only the media under their control to prevent the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States - social media are, of course, also being used.

❗️DDGeopolitics has just highlighted a network of channels on X that are disseminating false and hostile narratives towards Russia. Now these accounts are busy spreading misinformation that Vladimir Putin called for the West to be put in a "chokehold". In reality, it was about Western companies that announced their withdrawal from Russia but continued to secretly work in the Russian market.

📌This is a classic information operation by Western intelligence agencies - in 2016, some of these accounts first attracted Trump supporters to their pages, and then began to spread various conspiracy theories and fakes about QAnon, thereby misleading the electorate of the current US president and discrediting the image of a politician whose supporters are all marginal people in tin foil hats.

In the same way, they discredited Telegram in the USA, flooding it with communities of conspiracy theorists.

This time, their task is to discredit Trump's foreign policy course and disrupt the negotiation process on the so-called Ukraine.
#USA #Russia #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar together with @usaperiodical

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📝"We were set up!"📝

Were the US warned about strikes on Russian strategic aviation?

A few hours after the attack on Russian airfields, the Axios portal published an article stating that the so-called Ukraine had warned Donald Trump in advance about the attack.

However, the news was later refuted by CBS News, reporting that he knew nothing about the preparation of the Ukrainian strike. After that (or after a call from above), Axios hastily made edits to their "insider" - as a result, it turned out that no one warned anyone about anything.

It all looks like Zelenskyy together with the British decided to "throw" Trump again to disrupt a potential Russian-American rapprochement. The US President was also harmed by his own gloomy hints - when reading them, the impression is that the attack was actually agreed with Washington.

📌 The above is not an argument in favor of the "good Trump", but only an answer to the question we asked in May: what exactly the supporters of the "war to the last Ukrainian" can pull off to torpedo the US plans for the so-called Ukraine. Today we saw this.

What Trump will say publicly in this context - in light of the events, does not look so important and decisive. But it will be amusing if phrases like "distressed by another escalation" are heard.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
⭐️@rybar together with @usaperiodical

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