Today's Headlines - 11 August 2023
MPC has kept interest rate unchanged
GS Paper - 3 (Economy)
Interest rates in the Indian financial system will remain unchanged following the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the main policy instrument – the Repo rate – unchanged at 6.50 per cent on 10 August 2023. Equated monthly instalments (EMIs) of home, vehicle and other loans are expected to remain steady for the time being.
Why is the RBI in pause mode?
The pause in the Repo rate – the rate at which RBI lends money to banks to meet their short-term funding needs – on 10 August 2023 is for the third time since the RBI started hiking the Repo rate in May 2022 to check inflation.
In April policy, the MPC members, in a surprise move, had unanimously decided to pause the rate hike cycle.
Monetary policy transmission is still underway after the RBI slashed the Repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022 and headline inflation is expected to remain above the five per cent level and even touch even 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year.
While the vegetable price shock may reverse quickly, possible El Nino weather conditions along with global food prices need to be watched closely against the backdrop of a skewed southwest monsoon so far.
Why RBI has hiked inflation projection and its impact
On 10 August 2023, the RBI revised its FY2024 inflation projection to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent announced in June.
It said CPI inflation is expected to be at 6.2 per cent in the second quarter, 5.7 per cent in the third quarter and 5.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY2023-24.
This means the high policy rates will remain high for long and, therefore, a rate cut can be expected only in Q1 FY25.
The spike in tomato prices and the rise in cereal and pulses contributed to inflation. However, vegetable prices may see a significant correction.
Retail inflation (measured using the consumer prices index or CPI) had declined to an 18-month low of 4.3 per cent in May from 5.7 per cent in March, remaining under the RBI’s comfort zone of 2-6 per cent for two consecutive months.
However, inflation has picked up since then and it’s likely to rise in the range of 6-6.8 per cent in July from 4.81 per cent in June. The RBI is mandated to keep CPI at 4 per cent with a band of +/- 2 per cent.
Why has RBI retained the stance of withdrawal of accommodation?
The RBI has focused on its stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ until all risks to inflation dissipate. An accommodative stance means the central bank is prepared to expand the money supply to boost economic growth.
Withdrawal of accommodation will mean reducing the money supply in the system which will rein in inflation further.
#upsc #news #headline #MPC #rate #economy #indian #financial #system #policy #EMI #RBI #bank #hiked #CPI #zone #withdrawal #level #monetary #committee #instalments #mode
MPC has kept interest rate unchanged
GS Paper - 3 (Economy)
Interest rates in the Indian financial system will remain unchanged following the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the main policy instrument – the Repo rate – unchanged at 6.50 per cent on 10 August 2023. Equated monthly instalments (EMIs) of home, vehicle and other loans are expected to remain steady for the time being.
Why is the RBI in pause mode?
The pause in the Repo rate – the rate at which RBI lends money to banks to meet their short-term funding needs – on 10 August 2023 is for the third time since the RBI started hiking the Repo rate in May 2022 to check inflation.
In April policy, the MPC members, in a surprise move, had unanimously decided to pause the rate hike cycle.
Monetary policy transmission is still underway after the RBI slashed the Repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022 and headline inflation is expected to remain above the five per cent level and even touch even 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year.
While the vegetable price shock may reverse quickly, possible El Nino weather conditions along with global food prices need to be watched closely against the backdrop of a skewed southwest monsoon so far.
Why RBI has hiked inflation projection and its impact
On 10 August 2023, the RBI revised its FY2024 inflation projection to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent announced in June.
It said CPI inflation is expected to be at 6.2 per cent in the second quarter, 5.7 per cent in the third quarter and 5.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY2023-24.
This means the high policy rates will remain high for long and, therefore, a rate cut can be expected only in Q1 FY25.
The spike in tomato prices and the rise in cereal and pulses contributed to inflation. However, vegetable prices may see a significant correction.
Retail inflation (measured using the consumer prices index or CPI) had declined to an 18-month low of 4.3 per cent in May from 5.7 per cent in March, remaining under the RBI’s comfort zone of 2-6 per cent for two consecutive months.
However, inflation has picked up since then and it’s likely to rise in the range of 6-6.8 per cent in July from 4.81 per cent in June. The RBI is mandated to keep CPI at 4 per cent with a band of +/- 2 per cent.
Why has RBI retained the stance of withdrawal of accommodation?
The RBI has focused on its stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ until all risks to inflation dissipate. An accommodative stance means the central bank is prepared to expand the money supply to boost economic growth.
Withdrawal of accommodation will mean reducing the money supply in the system which will rein in inflation further.
#upsc #news #headline #MPC #rate #economy #indian #financial #system #policy #EMI #RBI #bank #hiked #CPI #zone #withdrawal #level #monetary #committee #instalments #mode