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Bursa off day's best, Asian markets stabilise, oil retraces gains

KUALA LUMPUR: Asian markets stabiised on Tuesday after the rout the previous day on hopes of more stimulus measures by governments after the Covid-19 coronavirus left 4,000 people dead.

At Bursa, the FBM KLCI climbed to a high of 1,446 in intra-day trade, aided by the recovery in oil prices. However, in late trading, investors decided to take profit on Petronas-linked stocks as oil prices gave up most of the earlier gains after Saudi Armaco said it would pump more oil.

At 5pm, the FBM KLCI was up 6.3 points or 0.44% to 1,430.47 while year-to-date, it is down 9.96%. Turnover was 4.42 billion shares valued at RM3.21bil. The broader market was mixed with 491 gainers, 477 losers and 345 counters unchanged.

Reuters reported Saudi Aramco will raise its crude supply, which includes oil to its customers inside the kingdom and abroad, to 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, CEO Amin Nasser said on Tuesday.

April's crude supply will be "300,000 barrels per day over the company’s maximum sustained capacity of 12 million bpd," Nasser said in a statement received by Reuters.

US light crude rose US$1.35 to US$32.48 and Brent added US$1.34 to US$35.70.
Petronas Dagangan fell 38 sen to RM20.12 and wiped out 1.39 points, Petronas Chemicals five sen to RM4.35 and Petronas Gas 20 sen to RM15.50. However, Dialog gained fve se to RM3.08.

SAPURA ENERGY rose 0.5 sen to 11 sen and it was the most active with 276.49 million shares done. Bumi Armada and Velesto added 1.5 sen each to 17.5 sen and 17 sen while Perdana Petroleum gained two sen to 17 sen and Hibiscus 2.5 sen to 43.5 sen. However, Dayang Enterprise lost 20 sen to RM1.32.

MISC was the top gainer, up 37 sen to RM7.02 and added 2.97 points to the KLCI. Hengyuan ended 33 sen higher at 3.27 and YINSON 30 sen to RM6.30.

CIMB rose 15 sen to RM4.35 and added 2.67 points to the KLCI, Maybank gained 13 sen to RM8.37 and added 2.63 points, Public Bank 28 sen to RM17.30, RHB Bank seven sen to RM5.54, AmBank three sen to RM3.63 and HL Bank eight sen to RM15.08.

Crude palm oil for third month delivery fell RM17 to RM2,315 per tonne. PPB Group lost 62 sen to RM17.08 and erased 1.58 points, KL Kepong 64 sen to RM20.30, IOI Corp shed one sen to RM3.93 but Sime Plantation added five sen to RM4.45.

IHH lost 10 sen to RM5.59, MAHB shed two sen to RM5.74, Tenaga was uchanged at RM12.50, Genting was flat at RM4.51, GentingM added two sen to RM2.64.

Among the key markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.85%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded 1.41%. CSI 300 2.14%. Shanghai Composite 1.82% while Taiwan's Taiex added 0.24% while South Korea's Kospi gained 0.42% and Singapore's STI 1.85%.

The ringgit weakened by 0.45% against the US dollar to 4.2362 and lost 0.13% against the euro to 4.8112 and shed 0.14% to the Singapore dollar to 3.0499. However, it edged up 0.15% against the pound sterling to 5.5305.
Crude oil’s crash jeopardises Asia’s cleaner fuel ambitions

KUALA LUMPUR: Shockwaves from the oil price crash have hammered Asia’s biofuels industry, upending optimism over the industry’s future.

Crude’s nosedive erases any chance of discretionary blending of palm oil with diesel, and drastically inflates the cost of government mandates.

“These are unprecedented times, ” said Alvin Tai, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Biofuels, such as a blend of diesel with palm, need to be attractively priced compared with fossil fuels to encourage consumption, and that often requires subsidies.

The almost 25% plunge in Brent crude oil on Monday therefore made palm oil’s competitive position dramatically worse.

Some calm returned to markets yesterday, with Brent recovering more than 5% and palm oil steadying after plunging over 10% at one stage a day earlier.

Even so, palm oil is still about US$200 a tonne more expensive than gasoil, as diesel is also known, the widest premium in more than three years. That will probably jeopardise efforts by Indonesia and Malaysia – the top producers of the tropical oil – to use more biofuel at home.

The premium “makes discretionary palm oil biofuel economically unviable, ” said Oscar Tjakra, an analyst at Rabobank in Singapore. “The rule of thumb is for palm to be cheaper by US$120 compared to gasoil for discretionary blending.”

Low crude oil prices would increase “economic burdens on countries which provide subsidies to their biofuel industry, ” said Tjakra.

“In the long run, investments on new and additional biofuel production capacities could be delayed as they are not economically viable.”

Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, exporter and consumer of palm oil, has been at the centre of efforts to boost consumption in biofuel.

To encourage use of green fuel, a government body known as the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency has been offering incentives to the biodiesel industry financed by levies on exports.

The fund, holding an estimated US$1bil, will probably need to pay about US$200 per tonne in subsidies to spur use of the biofuel, according to Tai from Bloomberg Intelligence.

“The bigger the crude price drop, the faster it’ll eat into the biodiesel fund, ” said Tai. “Indonesia can maybe survive another six months, but beyond that, they’ll need to start collecting levies to keep the programme going.” — Bloomberg
*Malaysia to Rebuild Relations With India on Palm Oil Exports*
Wednesday, March 11, 2020 01:49 PM
By Anuradha Raghu

(Bloomberg) --Ministry plans to send delegation to India to discuss palm oil matters and suggests the new premier to also visit India, Plantation Industries and Commodities minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in media briefing.
*Ministry plans to rebuild relations with India within a month
*Malaysia looks to expand palm export market to Russia, Middle East
*Govt to continue with implementation of B20 mandate
*Ministry will look at improving livelihood of palm and rubber smallholders
*NOTE: Malaysia to Present Reviewed Stimulus Package in 1-2 Weeks
Fitch Solutions: CPO prices to average higher

PETALING JAYA: Fitch Solutions expects crude palm oil (CPO) prices to average at RM2,300 per tonne this year, above last year’s RM2,162, despite soft global demand.

It noted that the forecast represented a reduction from the spot price of RM2,442 per tonne and reflected its expectation of continued global demand weakness.

“While production will see limited growth due to environmental concerns, demand in key import markets will be sharply constrained by the economic effects of Covid-19 and relative affordability of substitutes.

“An expected global economic slowdown and low oil prices will outweigh the bullish demand factors that drove palm oil price appreciation in fourth-quarter 2019, ” it said in a report.

On CPO production, the research house expects a modest 3% increase this year.

It said that while favourable weather conditions would drive an increase in Indonesian yields, Malaysian production growth would be constrained due to an early season drought.

“Furthermore, planted area growth in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to slow, weighing on headline production numbers, ” it said.

Fitch Solutions also sees three factors driving palm oil’s weaker international demand this year – the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, weaker crude oil prices as well as geopolitical and environmental motives including the ongoing dispute between India and Malaysia.

PublicInvest Research is also positive on the outlook for CPO prices this year, with a full-year assumption of RM2,600 per tonne. This, it said, was attributed to the declining palm oil production as a result of a cut in fertliser application and prolonged dry weather.

“Nevertheless, CPO prices have not been spared from the recent commodity price plunge, given mounting concerns over the global spread of the coronavirus and the resultant weakening in demand for commodities, ” said the research house, which has an “overweight” stance on the sector.

OUB Kay Hian Research, meanwhile, said the recent selling pressure on CPO could have been due to negative sentiment arising from the Covid-19 epidemic and the crude oil price slump.

It expects CPO prices to trade lower in the near term, following the sharp decline in crude oil prices.
Malaysia aims to resolve palm oil spat with India within a month

KUALA LUMPUR: Newly-appointed Primary Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Dr Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said Malaysia would strengthen ties with India, particularly to boost palm oil exports.

Relations between the two countries became strained following a political row linked to criticism of New Delhi’s actions in Kashmir and India’s new citizenship law.

Mohd Khairuddin said the ministry would send a delegation to India as soon as possible to resolve the issue through negotiations. — Bernama
The World Health Organization officially declares the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/h_0cc7fc92661bca767fbee35c5e5fedd1
🌏 Global stock markets plunged into bear territory and oil slid more than 5% after U.S. President Donald Trump banned travel from Europe to stem the spread of coronavirus, threatening more disruption to the world economy.

🇪🇺 The European Central Bank approved fresh stimulus measures and temporarily dropped banks’ capital requirements to help the euro zone cope with the shock of the pandemic, but kept interest rates on hold, disappointing markets.

🇺🇸 Wall Street tanked 10% after new travel restrictions to curb the coronavirus spread spooked investors and rattled world markets. The blue chip Dow suffered its worst one-day loss since October 1987’s “Black Monday.”
* Dow -2,352 (-9.9%)
* S&P -260 (-9.5%)
* Nasdaq -750 (-9.4%)

🇺🇸 President Trump authorized $50 billion for the Small Business Administration to extend low interest loans to companies affected by the virus and restricted travel from Europe to the U.S. for the next 30 days.  However, the markets were underwhelmed by President Trump's measures and sold-off as he failed to mention a "major" economic plan such as a payroll tax cut.

€ European stocks close 11% lower in worst one-day drop ever on coronavirus fears, President Trump's travel restrictions to Europe and the European Central Bank’s decision not to cut interest rates.

🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Conti ordered all Italian shops to close except for grocery stores, pharmacies and few others until March 25 and the National Basketball Association said it will suspend its season after a player tested positive for the coronavirus.

Oil prices dropped as much as 8% on Thursday as crude continues to take a hit on both the supply and demand side. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now down more than 25% this week, putting it on track for its worst week since December 2008, and its third largest weekly decline on record.
* Crude oil $31.50 (-1.48/-4.49%)
* Brent crude $33.31 (-2.51/-7%)

👑 Gold slumping more than 4% as investors rushed to cover margin calls in other assets. U.S. gold futures settled 3.2% lower at $1,590.30.

🌴FCPO May (RM2,277, -82)  closed more than 3% down on Thursday after the World Health Organization (WHO) described the coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic, rattling global markets. A further drop in crude oil prices along with broader market rout due to a restriction of travel from Europe to the United States for 30 days to curb the spread of the virus soured sentiment further. From a technical view, sentiment remains downside bias as long it stay below the 200SMA on the daily chart. Next key support at psychological level 2200.
Commodities Ministry eyes new markets

The Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry aims to expand the oil palm market by entering new markets such as Africa and the Middle East, as well as increasing production and plantation areas.

Minister Datuk Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said the ministry will conduct a comprehensive study on the strength of the markets in the Middle East and Africa via the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

He added that he had received a call from a Middle Eastern ambassador requesting for a meeting to discuss the market opportunities for palm oil products in the country.

Khairuddin noted that the oil palm plantation size in Malaysia is currently about six million ha, with production at about 20 million tonnes per ha, adding that the ministry plans to expand the plantation area.

“What happened in Europe, let it be.

“The most important thing is that we will continue to open up new markets, we will create a new direction, ” he told reporters after chairing a briefing session with the MPOB board of directors here yesterday. — Bernama
📣 Stimulus hopes pull stocks back :

🇺🇸 The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday offered a hefty $1.5 trillion in short-term loans to stimulate the economy and stabilize the financial system.

🇦🇺 Australia’s central bank followed suit, pumping an usually large amount of cash into the system on Friday as panic selling across global markets threatened to drain liquidity and push up borrowing costs.

🇮🇩 Indonesia to support economy with $8 billion stimulus to counter virus impact.

🇪🇺 On Thursday, The ECB kept interest rates unchanged but boosted QE as it added 120 billion euros of asset purchases through the end of the year.  The ECB also said additional longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) will be conducted from June 2020 to June 2021 and that it will let banks run lower capital ratios.

🇯🇵 Japan vows 'bold' step to beat virus fallout, signals big spending package. Bank of Japan (BOJ) begun to consider lowering its assessment of the economy because of sluggish conditions caused by the coronavirus,
Malaysia lowers crude palm oil duty for April to 5%

Malaysia has decreased its export duty for crude palm oil to 5% for April from 6% in March, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Monday, citing the national customs department.

The world's second-largest producer and exporter of palm oil calculated a reference price of 2,631.07 ringgit ($612.02) per tonne.

The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil priced in a 2,250-2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit a tonne.
U.S soybeans export to China will be closely watched as tariff waiver starts. China palm import to decline

Last week 2nd March was the effective start date of the Phase 1 trade deal between U.S and China where China will start offering exemptions on 696 U.S origin goods including soybeans for a period of 1 year based on market value rather than volume. China started collecting 25% tariff on U.S origin soybeans from 6th July of 2018 as part of the retaliatory measure consequently U.S soybeans export to China dwindled rapidly.

U.S export to China fell 8.47 million tons or 23% in 2017-18  versus 2016-17 marketing year ending August. Exports failed to recover in 2018-19 ending 52% below the previous year. Although exports are currently trending 8 million tons higher than the low base of the same time last year, the volume is significantly below the pre-trade levels of 31.75 million tons for the same period of time.
Fed brings out big guns, investors fear the worst

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - A massive rollout of easing measures by the Federal Reserve served to deepen some investors' anxiety over how effectively policymakers will be able to mitigate the economic damage from a spreading coronavirus pandemic...….. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/fed-brings-out-big-guns-investors-fear-the-worst-2020-03-15
🇺🇸 Wall Street suffered its biggest drop since 1987 on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing at its lowest level since December 2018, as investors fear the coronavirus pandemic is proving a tougher opponent than central banks, lawmakers or the White House are currently capable of battling.
* Dow 20,188 (-2,997/-12.93%)
* S&P 2,386 (-324/-11.98%)
* Nasdaq  6,904 (-970/-12.32%)

🇺🇸 Stocks fell further late in the session as President Donald Trump urged Americans to halt most social activities for 15 days and not congregate in groups larger than 10 people, in a newly aggressive effort to reduce the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. Cities across the U.S. from New York, Chicago to Los Angeles limited restaurants and bars to takeout and delivery service and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that events of 50 people or more not be held for about 2 months.

🇺🇸 The Fed slashed interest rates by 100 bp to 0% and announced a new QE program where it would buy at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months.

€ European stocks were down -8.01% at a 7-1/2 year low as the spread of the coronavirus hammers global growth prospects.  The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that Europe is reporting more new cases each day than China did at its speak.

Oil prices fell below $30 a barrel on Monday after the worldwide coronavirus outbreak worsened over the weekend, exacerbating fears that government lockdowns to contain the spread of the disease would spark a global recession.
* Crude oil $28.70 (-3.03/-9.6%)
* Brent crude $30.05 (-3.80/-11.2%)

🌏Global government bond markets are moving higher on the slump in stocks and central bank stimulus measures, although T-notes fell back from their best levels after Fed Chair Powell reiterated opposition to negative interest rates when he said "we do not see negative policy rates as likely to be an appropriate policy response.

🇨🇳 China Feb industrial production fell -13.5% year-to-date y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.0% year-to-date y/y, and the steepest pace of contraction since the data began in 1998.

🇨🇳 China Feb retail sales fell -20.5% year-to-date y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.0% year-to-date y/y and the steepest pace of contraction since the data began in 1998.

🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite closed down -3.40% at a 1-1/4 month low. Much weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data also pressured Chinese stocks after China Feb industrial production and Feb retail sales both contracted at the steepest pace since the data began in 1998.

🇯🇵 Nikkei Stock Index closed down -2.46%.  Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its ETF-purchasing target to 12 trillion yen ($112 billion) from 6 trillion yen.

👑 Gold has been swept up in the broad market sell-off to fall below $1,500 on Monday, down $200 from its peak early last week. The precious metal hit a low of $1,456.8, its lowest level since Nov 27, and traded below its 200-day moving average level of $1,497.4 for the first time since Dec 20, 2018 on an intraday basis. U.S. gold futures settled 2% lower at $1,486.5 an ounce.


🌴FCPO (RM2221, -49) closed 2.16% lower on Monday as concerns over lower demand increases due to coronavirus. Palm oil price was also dragged by crude oil futures weakness as it fell below $30.Malaysian palm oil exports for March 1-15 fell between 1.8% and 9.6% compared to previous month. In related oils, Dalian palm oil fell 0.09% and its soyoil gained 0.92%. Whereas soyoil on CBOT exchange dropped 1.78%. Technically, support and resistance at 2190 and 2280 respectively.
Wall Street suffers biggest drop in 23 years deeping historic slump

NEW YORK: Wall Street suffered its biggest drop since 1987 on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing at its lowest level since December 2018, as investors fear the coronavirus pandemic is proving a tougher opponent than central banks, lawmakers or the White House are currently capable of battling...... https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/17/wall-street-suffers-biggest-drop-in-23-years-deeping-historic-slump
🇲🇾🌴 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is urging the government to allow the industry to continue to operate over the coming weeks following the ordering of a virtual complete shutdown of all non-essential movement in the country through the end of the month as part of coronavirus-related curbs.

🇮🇩🌴Indonesia’s aggressive plans to further increase the country’s biodiesel blending mandate to a B40 blend in 2021 from this year’s increase to B30 from the B20 mandate in place in 2019 may not be achievable as experts cite a lack of production capacity in order to meet such a high level. It is estimated biorefineries would need to process at least 13 million kiloliters (3.4 billion gallons) of palm oil for a nationwide B40 blend, while capacity for 2021 is currently estimated to reach 11.8 million kl (3.1 bil gallons). Some are also raising concerns about the higher palm-based biodiesel content impact on engine performance as B30 blends are increasingly used this year.
FCPO April 2499 (+174)
FCPO May 2419 (+137)
O: 2346
H: 2441
L: 2346

FCPO June 2367 (+117)
O: 2314
H: 2391
L: 2312

FCPO Aug 2323 (+100)
O: 2314
H: 2391
L: 2312

Regional Updates

Dalian 4840 (+194)
Soyoil May 25.85 (+0.61)
Crude oil 27.46 (+0.13)
RM 4.356 (+0.18%)
Current market price