UK Natural Gas Futures Retreat : UK natural gas futures dropped to 121 pence a therm as forecasts predicted milder weather next week, reducing the pressure that had previously driven prices higher.
Although temperatures will remain cold for the rest of this week, the weather shift next week should reduce some of the immediate demand for heating.
Last week, prices rallied to above 125 pence a therm for the first time since October 2023 following the end of Russian pipeline gas deliveries via Ukraine.
Meanwhile, European gas storage is at 70% capacity, down from 85% last year, leaving the UK vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its limited storage and reliance on European infrastructure.
Although temperatures will remain cold for the rest of this week, the weather shift next week should reduce some of the immediate demand for heating.
Last week, prices rallied to above 125 pence a therm for the first time since October 2023 following the end of Russian pipeline gas deliveries via Ukraine.
Meanwhile, European gas storage is at 70% capacity, down from 85% last year, leaving the UK vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its limited storage and reliance on European infrastructure.
U.S. Natural Gas Balances to Tighten In 2025, Bank of America Says — Market Talk : The early winter jump in U.S. natural gas prices has been driven by weather forecasts more than by realized temperatures, with accumulated heating degree days so far above last winter's levels but below those of 2022/2023, analysts at Bank of America say in a report. Gas demand is likely to soar with cold weather expected across most of the South, Midwest, and East Coast, they say, although "winter remains a 2-way risk for prices near term, and rising spec length is fuel for a selloff if weather disappoints." Bank of America sees U.S. gas balances tightening in 2025 with demand growth of 2.5 billion cubic feet a day and supply growth of 2.1 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas is likely to drive most of the demand growth, while residential and commercial sector usage should offset lower power-sector consumption given greater renewable generation, they add.
India's Industrial Activity Grows 5.2% in November 2024 : India's industrial activity, measured by the Index of Industrial Production, grew by 5.2% in November against a 3.5% growth in October, according to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday.
The overall general factory output recorded a 5.2% growth in November 2024 compared with 2.5% in November 2023, and 3.7% in October 2024.
Of the three main sectors, manufacturing recorded a 5.8% growth in November compared with 4.1% in October. The mining sector output increased by 1.9% against 0.9% in the preceding months, and electricity generation increased by 4.4% from 2%.
The estimated IIP for November 2024 came in at 148.4 as compared with 141.1 logged in November 2023.
The overall general factory output recorded a 5.2% growth in November 2024 compared with 2.5% in November 2023, and 3.7% in October 2024.
Of the three main sectors, manufacturing recorded a 5.8% growth in November compared with 4.1% in October. The mining sector output increased by 1.9% against 0.9% in the preceding months, and electricity generation increased by 4.4% from 2%.
The estimated IIP for November 2024 came in at 148.4 as compared with 141.1 logged in November 2023.
Oil Up Nearly 4% on Report U.S. is Poised to Tighten Sanctions on Russia's Oil Industry : Oil prices surged to a three-month high early on Friday following reports the outgoing Biden Administration is readying additional sanctions on Russia's oil exports.
West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery was last seen up US$2.95 to US$76.87 per barrel, the highest since Oct.7, while March Brent crude was up US$2.87 to US$79.79.
Reuters on Friday reported the United States plans to sanction 180 tankers, oil traders, two oil companies and oil executives, according to a document it said it is circulating among traders in Asia and Europe, though the news agency said it "could not verify the veracity of the document".
The additional sanctions, if they are imposed, could further tighten the call on supply that is already squeezed by OPEC+ production cuts and high demand amid cold winter temperatures. They also follow on this week's decision by a major Chinese port operator to ban sanctioned tankers from Russia and Iran.
"The cold spell in the US and Europe could disrupt supply if refiners are affected and demand for heating oil is naturally rising. Stock draws in distillates in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out. Sanction-related declines in Iranian and Russian crude oil exports force China to seek suitable alternatives," PVM Oil Associates noted.
West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery was last seen up US$2.95 to US$76.87 per barrel, the highest since Oct.7, while March Brent crude was up US$2.87 to US$79.79.
Reuters on Friday reported the United States plans to sanction 180 tankers, oil traders, two oil companies and oil executives, according to a document it said it is circulating among traders in Asia and Europe, though the news agency said it "could not verify the veracity of the document".
The additional sanctions, if they are imposed, could further tighten the call on supply that is already squeezed by OPEC+ production cuts and high demand amid cold winter temperatures. They also follow on this week's decision by a major Chinese port operator to ban sanctioned tankers from Russia and Iran.
"The cold spell in the US and Europe could disrupt supply if refiners are affected and demand for heating oil is naturally rising. Stock draws in distillates in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out. Sanction-related declines in Iranian and Russian crude oil exports force China to seek suitable alternatives," PVM Oil Associates noted.
+600 points since we are bullish on it, check our follow-up posts on #crudeoil
"To accept reality is to surrender—why should I, when it is my perception that shapes reality itself?"
-K.
I believe that reality is not a fixed entity but a construct shaped by the lens of our perception. To simply accept it as it is feels like relinquishing power, yet the truth lies in our ability to reinterpret and redefine it. We are creators of our own realities, and through this understanding, we can transcend surrender and actively mold our world.
-K.
I believe that reality is not a fixed entity but a construct shaped by the lens of our perception. To simply accept it as it is feels like relinquishing power, yet the truth lies in our ability to reinterpret and redefine it. We are creators of our own realities, and through this understanding, we can transcend surrender and actively mold our world.
In 1848, Scottish botanist Robert Fortune carried out one of history’s most audacious botanical heists. Working for the British East India Company, he stole China’s closely guarded tea plants and the secrets of their cultivation 🌱. Disguised as a Chinese merchant and fluent in Mandarin, Fortune ventured deep into restricted areas, smuggling thousands of tea plants and skilled workers to India. He used specially designed cases to keep the plants alive during the journey 🫖.
This bold act of industrial espionage shattered China’s monopoly on tea production, paving the way for India to become a global tea powerhouse. While British India’s tea industry flourished, China’s centuries-old dominance in the tea trade suffered a devastating blow ⚖️. This moment reshaped global trade and left a lasting mark on the tea industry.
Sources: British Library Archives, East India Company Records, Robert Fortune's published accounts
This bold act of industrial espionage shattered China’s monopoly on tea production, paving the way for India to become a global tea powerhouse. While British India’s tea industry flourished, China’s centuries-old dominance in the tea trade suffered a devastating blow ⚖️. This moment reshaped global trade and left a lasting mark on the tea industry.
Sources: British Library Archives, East India Company Records, Robert Fortune's published accounts
"Greed and fear disturb the natural flow of human rhythm. By overcoming these instincts, one can achieve a state of calm, even in the most challenging moments."
-K.
I believe that greed and fear are powerful forces that unsettle the harmony within us. These instincts, though natural, often cloud judgment and disrupt our ability to maintain balance in life. By learning to master them, we open the door to an inner calm that allows us to navigate even the most turbulent situations with clarity and strength. True calmness arises when we transcend the instincts that pull us away from our center.
-K.
I believe that greed and fear are powerful forces that unsettle the harmony within us. These instincts, though natural, often cloud judgment and disrupt our ability to maintain balance in life. By learning to master them, we open the door to an inner calm that allows us to navigate even the most turbulent situations with clarity and strength. True calmness arises when we transcend the instincts that pull us away from our center.
US Natgas Prices Rise for 4th Session : US natural gas futures surged over 4% to exceed $4.1/MMBtu on Monday, the highest since December 2022 and marking a fourth consecutive session of gains fueled by colder weather forecasts and rising heating demand.
Meteorologists expect below-average temperatures across much of the US through January 25, with even chillier conditions ahead.
Adding to the upward pressure, oil prices reached four-month highs due to fresh US sanctions on Russia's energy sector, raising supply concerns.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports hit record levels, with feedgas flows climbing to 15.5 billion cubic feet per day, including increased activity at Texas’s new Plaquemines LNG plant.
Meanwhile, production steadied as freeze-offs disrupting output during the cold began to subside.
Meteorologists expect below-average temperatures across much of the US through January 25, with even chillier conditions ahead.
Adding to the upward pressure, oil prices reached four-month highs due to fresh US sanctions on Russia's energy sector, raising supply concerns.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports hit record levels, with feedgas flows climbing to 15.5 billion cubic feet per day, including increased activity at Texas’s new Plaquemines LNG plant.
Meanwhile, production steadied as freeze-offs disrupting output during the cold began to subside.
Crude Oil Prices Start Year Strong Amid Supply Concerns, Commerzbank Says : The oil market started the new year with some momentum as news from the supply side provides price support, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.
Exports from Russia and production in the United Arab Emirates were significantly reduced in December, the bank noted. This was followed by news of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude.
Exports from Russia and production in the United Arab Emirates were significantly reduced in December, the bank noted. This was followed by news of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude.
However, demand is likely to return to focus after monthly reports from the energy agencies and Chinese economic data are released in the coming days, Commerzbank said.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, which will also provide 2026 forecasts for the first time, could revise its expectations for global oil demand slightly downwards. The rapid advance of electromobility and more moderate economic growth in China are likely to permanently dampen demand for oil in the country, the bank said.
At the same time, the EIA could be more optimistic about U.S. production prospects until 2026 due to a presumably more producer-friendly energy policy from President-elect Donald Trump, according to Commerzbank.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, which will also provide 2026 forecasts for the first time, could revise its expectations for global oil demand slightly downwards. The rapid advance of electromobility and more moderate economic growth in China are likely to permanently dampen demand for oil in the country, the bank said.
At the same time, the EIA could be more optimistic about U.S. production prospects until 2026 due to a presumably more producer-friendly energy policy from President-elect Donald Trump, according to Commerzbank.
Oil Rises to Over 4-Month High : WTI crude oil futures surged over 2% to above $78 per barrel on Monday, the highest level in more than four months, as new US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector raised concerns about supply disruptions.
These sanctions, the most sweeping yet, targeted major exporters, insurers, and over 150 tankers, leaving key buyers like India and China scrambling for alternatives.
The move has already caused confusion, with Chinese refiners holding emergency meetings and Indian refiners preparing for months of potential disruption.
Early signs of disruption include sanctioned tankers stuck off China, with analysts estimating up to 800,000 barrels per day of Russian oil could be impacted, though the actual loss may be lower.
Adding to the rally are falling US stockpiles, colder weather, and speculation that the incoming Trump administration may tighten sanctions on Iran.
These sanctions, the most sweeping yet, targeted major exporters, insurers, and over 150 tankers, leaving key buyers like India and China scrambling for alternatives.
The move has already caused confusion, with Chinese refiners holding emergency meetings and Indian refiners preparing for months of potential disruption.
Early signs of disruption include sanctioned tankers stuck off China, with analysts estimating up to 800,000 barrels per day of Russian oil could be impacted, though the actual loss may be lower.
Adding to the rally are falling US stockpiles, colder weather, and speculation that the incoming Trump administration may tighten sanctions on Iran.
Crude Prices Pressured as Prospects Improve for a Gaza Ceasefire : Crude and gasoline prices today are mixed. Crude prices came under pressure today on improved prospects for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, which could ease tensions in the Middle East. Losses in crude were contained, and gasoline prices rose on a weaker dollar.
Crude prices fell today after Qatar said a Hamas and Israel truce deal is the closest since talks started. An ending of hostilities between Israel and Hamas will ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the threats of disruption to crude supplies in the region.
Crude prices have support from last Friday after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes.
Crude prices fell today after Qatar said a Hamas and Israel truce deal is the closest since talks started. An ending of hostilities between Israel and Hamas will ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the threats of disruption to crude supplies in the region.
Crude prices have support from last Friday after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes.
A decline in Russian crude oil exports is supportive of crude oil prices. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -20,000 bpd to 3.01 million bpd in the week to January 12.
A drop in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -4.8% w/w to 50.59 million bbl in the week ended January 10.
The outlook for new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and is bullish for prices. Mike Walz, President-elect Trump's pick for national security adviser, vowed a return to "maximum pressure" on Iran.
Crude has support after Saudi Arabia last Monday raised its crude prices for Asian customers for delivery in February by 60 cents per bbl, above expectations of 10 cents per bbl, and a sign Saudi Arabia sees tighter supplies in its largest crude export market.
A drop in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -4.8% w/w to 50.59 million bbl in the week ended January 10.
The outlook for new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and is bullish for prices. Mike Walz, President-elect Trump's pick for national security adviser, vowed a return to "maximum pressure" on Iran.
Crude has support after Saudi Arabia last Monday raised its crude prices for Asian customers for delivery in February by 60 cents per bbl, above expectations of 10 cents per bbl, and a sign Saudi Arabia sees tighter supplies in its largest crude export market.
👍1
#axisbank 948 trading at P/E multiples of 10 and P/B ratio <2 with immediate support around 850, watch for post-budget price action; not a bad bet to add close to its support ROE(5 yrs) around11% and ROCE 7%
#axisbank 982 from last day lows of 934 to top gainer of the #nifty and #banknifty leading the upside rally
Think long-term; everything makes better sense #tataconsumer 1067