January WTI crude oil (CLF25) today is up +1.54 (+2.26%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF25) is up +0.0396 (+2.07%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are climbing due to a weaker dollar. Crude extended its gains today after the US imposed more sanctions on Iranian crude, curbing global oil supplies. Crude also found support after OPEC+ delegates said the group is firming up an agreement to delay its crude production increases for another three months.
Crude oil rallied today after the US Treasury sanctioned 35 entities and vessels for their role in transporting illicit Iranian oil to foreign markets, which will reduce global crude supplies.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -2.5% w/w to 68.74 million bbl in the week ended November 29.
Crude has support from expectations that OPEC+ will delay an expected +180,000 bpd of production from January until Q2 of 2025, when the group meets online on December 5. The group had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. Also, the UAE is being allowed to gradually phase in a further 300,000 bpd in recognition of recent increases to its production capacity. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.
Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices. Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, and Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Last week, Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use atomic weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Oct apparent oil demand fell -5.4% y/y to 14.07 million bpd, and Jan-Oct apparent oil demand was down -4.03% y/y to 14.00 million bpd. China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +570,000 bpd to 3.36 million bpd in the week to December 1.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 22 were -4.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 22 rose +2.2% w/w to 13.49 million bpd, just below the record 13.50 million bpd from earlier this month.
Baker Hughes reported last Wednesday that active US oil rigs in the week ending November 29 fell -2 rigs and matched the 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs first posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are climbing due to a weaker dollar. Crude extended its gains today after the US imposed more sanctions on Iranian crude, curbing global oil supplies. Crude also found support after OPEC+ delegates said the group is firming up an agreement to delay its crude production increases for another three months.
Crude oil rallied today after the US Treasury sanctioned 35 entities and vessels for their role in transporting illicit Iranian oil to foreign markets, which will reduce global crude supplies.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -2.5% w/w to 68.74 million bbl in the week ended November 29.
Crude has support from expectations that OPEC+ will delay an expected +180,000 bpd of production from January until Q2 of 2025, when the group meets online on December 5. The group had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025. Also, the UAE is being allowed to gradually phase in a further 300,000 bpd in recognition of recent increases to its production capacity. OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.
Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices. Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, and Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Last week, Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use atomic weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Oct apparent oil demand fell -5.4% y/y to 14.07 million bpd, and Jan-Oct apparent oil demand was down -4.03% y/y to 14.00 million bpd. China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +570,000 bpd to 3.36 million bpd in the week to December 1.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 22 were -4.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 22 rose +2.2% w/w to 13.49 million bpd, just below the record 13.50 million bpd from earlier this month.
Baker Hughes reported last Wednesday that active US oil rigs in the week ending November 29 fell -2 rigs and matched the 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs first posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
#crudeoil : it confirms 5760-5780 as important support for the current expiry, volume confirms the bullish move the level we suggested earlier is still intact 5760/5850/5960/6100/6315/6500
Can #hdfcbank led the #banknifty to new ATH 54467 in the current expiry?
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Dollar Retreats as the Euro Recovers. The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.48%. The dollar is moving lower today after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to a 6-week high, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Also, the euro moved higher and weighed on the dollar as French political tensions eased after National Rally leader Le Pen said France could pass a budget for 2025 in the next few weeks. Hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed T-note yields higher and were supportive of the dollar when she said there's "no sense of urgency" for the Fed to lower interest rates.
US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +9,000 to a 6-week high of 224,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 215,000.
The US Oct trade deficit narrowed to -$73.8 billion from -$83.8 billion in Sep, better than expectations of -$75.0 billion and a positive factor for Q4 GDP.
San Francisco Fed President Daly said there's "no sense of urgency" to lower interest rates, and policymakers can "carefully calibrate policy and make sure it's in line with the economy we have today and one we expect to have going forward."
The markets are discounting the chances at 68% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +9,000 to a 6-week high of 224,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 215,000.
The US Oct trade deficit narrowed to -$73.8 billion from -$83.8 billion in Sep, better than expectations of -$75.0 billion and a positive factor for Q4 GDP.
San Francisco Fed President Daly said there's "no sense of urgency" to lower interest rates, and policymakers can "carefully calibrate policy and make sure it's in line with the economy we have today and one we expect to have going forward."
The markets are discounting the chances at 68% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
When you have broader view about the market, things looks simple and easy,....sometimes ride #sbin other times #hdfcbank, #icicibank, #bob, #axis, #kotak but best part market doesn't surprise you much....feels like you have control of things...enjoying each moment of journey from 54k to 50k and then upside since then.....chart looks simpler once you understand something and that something keeps repeating....feels like something which can't be explained in words.
Some buying action in #jubfood 688 with support shifted 437 to 571 with immediate TGT 811 seems possible in short term so keep an eye
Is #itc at fair price to add or buy fresh....470 seems immediate support
#LT 3867: Too many rejections so not ready to correct below 3500 as 3200-3500 will act as good support with TGT around 4163 (2.618 ext since COVID-19 level)
#coforge doubled since MAY 24, makes new 52 week high 8911.80
#cnxit correction from recent high 43561 -> 39978 wsn't a fluke but a re-test of recent break out since then it makes a new HIGH and gain of +5000 points
#asianpaint 2430 : Time to stay away from it, as it break the crucial support 2600-2700, seems like there are multiple reasons the stock is facing for it's underperformance one of them is reduction market share due to the entry of #AdityaBirlaGroup in paint sector