The Inner Circle Trader

📊Week Ahead :Focus on Fed, PCE Inflation & Central Banks as Debt Concerns Shake Markets

🇺🇸United States | Dollar Awaits Key Data & Congressional Decisions
• Fed Minutes & PCE Inflation (Wednesday & Friday):
The focus is on the FOMC minutes (Wednesday)and core PCE price (Friday) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which is expected to stay flat at 2.6% y/y in April. Can this steady inflation print support the US dollar?
• Debt Crisis & Budget Bill:
The ongoing $4 trillion deficit debate continues to pressure Treasury yields and the dollar. A Senate vote is due in early June, with any signal of deeper spending cuts possibly easing bond market fears.
• Additional US Data:
• Tuesday: Durable goods orders, Consumer confidence
• Thursday: Q1 GDP (2nd estimate), Pending home sales
• Friday: Chicago PMI

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🇳🇿New Zealand | RBNZ Expected to Cut Rates Again
• Markets price in a 90% probability that the RBNZ will cut rates by 25 bps (to 3.25%) in its Wednesday meeting — the sixth straight cut since August.
• Despite rising inflation expectations, weak labor data and global risks support further easing.
• A hawkish tone post-cut could help the NZD rebound against the USD.

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🇨🇦Canada | Q1 GDP to Reveal Trade War Fallout
• Friday’s GDP report is expected to show just 0.2% q/q growth in Q1 (vs 0.6% in Q4).
• A sharp slowdown could weigh on the Canadian dollar and boost BoC rate cut expectations for June (currently 30% odds).

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🇦🇺Australia | CPI & CapEx in Focus
• Wednesday: April CPI data will show if inflation remains sticky or is easing.
• Thursday: Key capital expenditure figures will influence expectations for the RBA’s easing path.

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🇯🇵Japan | Tokyo CPI & BoJ Policy Outlook
• Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target despite weak GDP.
• Friday: Tokyo CPI, Industrial production (prelim), Retail sales & Unemployment rate
• A strong CPI print could increase rate hike expectations and support the yen.

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🇪🇺Eurozone | Light Week Ahead
• Tuesday: Economic Sentiment Indicator
• Friday: Germany’s Preliminary CPI
• Otherwise, a quiet calendar for the euro — unless geopolitical or trade headlines disrupt sentiment.

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🛢OPEC+ | Eyes on Production Plans
• Wednesday: JMMC meeting to discuss July production quotas.
• Final decision may be delayed until next Sunday’s full OPEC+ session.
• Speculation suggests another output hike, potentially matching May–June’s 411k bpd.
• Oil prices could slip if output growth continues.

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➡️Other Key Points to Watch:
• Monday:
• US & UK markets closed (Bank Holiday) — expect a muted start to the week
• All Week:
• US Treasury auctions (2-, 5-, and 7-year notes) in focus amid budget stress

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