Here's roughly where we are in the current rally. Still another 6 months or so to go.

An easy way to invest in the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem is to get the BInance Token, which is BNB. It is up 125% in the last week. It is used extensively in the BSC ecosystem.

Update; PancakeSwap (CAKE) has officially surpassed ERC-20 based Uniswap for most volume in the last 24 hours. It is now the largest decentralized exchange in the world by volume. Get some CAKE and BNB if you don't have some :).

See the latest DEX data at https://www.coingecko.com/en/dex

In this week’s issue of The Coin Times I’ll be writing about Loopring, the largest decentralized exchange on Ethereum that has $0 gas fees, achieved via a new technology called a ZKrollup.

I have a sense quite a bit of volume will be moving from
Uniswap to Loopring the next 90 days as Uniswap works on their own Layer 2 “no gas fee” solution.

For anyone who wants to understand the technology behind Polkadot, listen to this great DeFi Times podcast interview from today with James Anderson of RioDeFi...

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defi-times/id1541829695?i=1000509923352

Bitcoin = AOL
Ethereum = Dial-up Internet
Polkadot = Broadband Internet

Bitcoin (BTC) stores value but you can’t build anything on it. No smart contracts. Hard to upgrade. Very slow. 7 transactions per second.

Ethereum (ETH) brought us smart contracts and programmability. Ethereum now has 11 applications built on it with more than $1 billion in stored value. Still slow. 15 transactions per second being upgraded to 100,000 with ETH 2.0 over the next 24 months. Big improvement over Bitcoin but currently congested.

Polkadot (DOT) brings much faster speed (166,000+ transactions per second), interoperability between blockchains, so they can seamlessly send data back-and-forth, and an easier to use programming language.

All three are here to stay and will appreciate in value a LOT this decade.

However I believe Polkadot will be the biggest winner of 2021-2030.

Between now and 2030 I expect Bitcoin will appreciate another 20x, Ethereum 50x, and Polkadot 100x.

So here is what is happening...

Bitcoin is supposed to be around $34k right now based on the stock to flow model. That is where is was one month ago. In the last month, Tesla, Microstrategy, and Grayscale have purchased a lot of it, making the price go up faster than it normally would. The stock to flow model predicts we should be at $55k by mid-May, and then head to $100k by mid-August. Today’s 11% correction to $50k is a short term correction. Know that we are a bit overheated still and we may see a retracement to as low as $35k-$40k, but that the general direction after the short term adjustment will be up for another 6 months.

In other words, it’s a good time to accumulate.

We are also up about 10% in the last hour, so the bottom is in. And lots and lots of support around 45k floor.

The reason these fast drops happen (and then recover within hours) is because of traders who trade with 5x to 10x leverage. They get liquidated (lose their money), which causes more automatic selling, which drops the price quickly until fundamental buyers notice and say, wow Bitcoin and Ethereum is 10% off, let’s buy a bunch, which happens usually 1-2 hours later.

Here's a great chart that shows us where we are in the current bull cycle... https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

A fantastic article on DeFi in Forbes today... https://www.forbes.com/sites/philippsandner/2021/02/22/decentralized-finance-will-change-your-understanding-of-financial-systems/

In the comments channel, someone asked, "When do you think the market will recover?" My answer...

Well the stock to flow model says BTC should be $34k right now, heading to $100k by August 18. It appears there is a LOT of floor support at $45k however. So I expect the market to stabilize around $45k and then proceed upward. Keep in mind however that the S2F model is usually quite accurate, so a retracement to $34k is always possible. I like to buy and hold for exactly this reason. I'm not too concerned about what the market says my BTC/ETH/DOT are worth today, I'm focused on getting more BTC/ETH/DOT to maximize their 2030 value.

For anyone wondering, in my opinion right now is one of the best buying opportunities for BTC/ETH/DOT we will ever see.

I also suggest looking into long-term positions in both Solana (SOL) and Serum (SRM), two of the few tokens to actually increase in price today.

What I am doing in my portfolio today:

--> Getting more Polkadot (DOT), Kusama (KSM), Nexo (NEXO), Voyager (VGX), Solana (SOL), Serum (SRM), Polygon (MATIC), xDai,(STAKE) and Loopring (LRC)

I have four active theses I am investing based on this week:

1) Polkadot Ecosystem Thesis: DOT, KSM, OCEAN, XOR, TRAC, PHA, DEGO

2) Neobanking Thesis: NEXO, VGX

3) Layer 2 Ethereum Scaling Thesis: MATIC, STAKE, LRC

4) Solana De-Fi Thesis: SOL, SRM

In an overall market that is down 12% in 24 hours, Solana, Serum, and Kusama are 3 of the very few tokens that have increased in value in the last day, showing their long-term strength.

FWIW, long traders who use leverage (5x-100x) got liquidated today. A good reminder to never use leverage unless you are open to complete loss of position and know what you are doing. "There was $5.7 billion of liquidations in the last 24 hours. Pretty sure that's the highest number ever (not relative to OI though). About $2.6B came from Binance itself"

In the 2017 bull market, every drop of 30% was followed by an average increase of 153%... that would take Bitcoin to$75k next before we see another mini-correction.

What matters isn’t what your crypto is worth today in fiat. What matters is what it will be worth in 2035. Buy, hold, stack.

It’s helpful to stop thinking in fiat-based denominations. Think in crypto native denominations. Think “I have 3 BTC and I want to have 10 BTC.”