#FOMC
Fed held rates steady @ 4.25-4.50%
key points from J POW speech

$BTC perp

added long
low risk target 🦋, next 🍊

I showed the reason for long 2 in the pic, can you see it? :)

Education of a Speculator 📚

AI 🤖

tl;dr (scroll to bottom)

with AI, I mean generally: chipmakers, LLM models, humanoids, agents, self driving EV,..etc

If you’re a Bitcoiner, think:
AI today = 2016-17 crypto

I know not many are that OG, so let me expand dat a bit…

in 2016, BTC kinda went from $$$ to solidly above $$$$. Then we have CME futures launch, and we took off with influx of new punters (yes, coz it’s all still very much a bet back then), we then saw the glorious every-week-new-ATH 2017, went from $$$$ to solid $$$$$.

Price discovery > Hype > new retail moneys > overheat > price front run real value

Price was $19,000/btc, but there was barely any infrastructure to support blockchain deployment.

Then 2018-19, crashed 85%, price revert to match real value. Infrastructure starts developing quietly ($LINK era)

Then 2020, Covid, crashes further, at that time it was: price < real value, ppl who logically saw dat is easily multi-millionaires today.

***

Back to AI,

I think we at:
AI ala btc2017

HYPE CYCLE

• hype, overpriced on prospective value, still lack mass market infrastructure)

What’s next:
AI ala btc2018,19

BUILD CYCLE

• price revert to reflect current values
• real infrastructure development takes place rapidly but often quietly (as typically heavy capex, no flashy report cards, thus no catchy headlines)
• typical PA: quiet bottom building, price < or = real values.

What’s next:
AI ala btc2021-25

TAKE OFF CYCLE

• price = real values
• slowly one by one big moneys start announcing their AI interests
• price > real values
• flashy headlines exaggerating potential values
• retails FOMO in
• price >>> real values
• early moneys, big moneys, smart moneys sell to late retails.
• deep retracements
…
…

What’s next:

STEADY GROWTH ERA

Eventually, price goes back to steadily-up longterm (Warren Buffett style)

tl;dr
AI now kinda hyped up & overpriced, first bubble soon to burst, there’s potential gains buying in build cycle & selling in take off/ longterm growth cycle.

+24% tariff on Msia>US exports

I think affect semicond the most, added cost to the sub jobs to Msia originally trying to get around China-US tariffs.

mild impact on CPO exports (we actually ship more to Europe than US). anw, today down in sympathy.

Macro tonight

• NFP
• Fed Chair Speaks

- important to hear J. Pow stance after Trump worldwide tariffs

*will update post once data is out

;-)

lots of learning watching candles unfold in a fast moving markets. but will definitely sit on my hands.

a whole week to drink coffee, watch the volatility, read books, study new stuff…

don’t think this is THE crash imo, not yet…

till the dust settles… then 🎣

of these, lack of buying in treasuries is the biggest problem.

before, now, & after march CPI (tmr), everyone’s 👀 on Powell.