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November 11, 2024
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Based on the economic calendar provided, here’s a trading analysis for today:
### Key Events and Impact Levels
1. JPY Events (Moderate to Low Impact)
- *Bank Lending y/y*: Actual is 2.7%, matching the forecast, indicating steady lending conditions.
- *BOJ Summary of Opinions*: Provides insights into the Bank of Japan’s stance on economic policy, potentially affecting JPY.
- *Current Account*: A significant miss with an actual of 1.27T versus a forecast of 2.80T, which could weaken JPY as it signals a lower-than-expected surplus.
2. NZD Event (High Impact)
- *Inflation Expectations q/q*: Actual is 2.12%, slightly above the previous 2.03%. Higher inflation expectations might support a stronger NZD if it raises the likelihood of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
3. CNY Events (Moderate Impact)
- *New Loans and M2 Money Supply y/y*: These are tentative dates (11th-15th). If actual loan growth or money supply exceeds expectations, it could positively impact CNY and commodities, as they suggest increased economic activity in China.
4. EUR, CAD, and USD Bank Holidays
- Lower liquidity expected for EUR, CAD, and USD, which could result in reduced volatility and potentially less trading volume.
5. GBP Event (Moderate Impact)
- *CB Leading Index m/m*: Forecast and previous data are low, suggesting a muted reaction unless there’s a surprise.
### Suggested Trading Strategy
1. JPY Trades
- Consider a bearish stance on JPY, especially against stronger currencies (like USD or NZD), due to the lower-than-expected Current Account surplus.
- Monitor the *Economy Watchers Sentiment* at 1:00 PM, as any negative sentiment could further weaken JPY.
2. NZD Trades
- The positive inflation expectations might make NZD an attractive buy today, especially against weaker currencies like JPY or EUR (due to the bank holiday).
- Pairing NZD against JPY could be advantageous with the current economic sentiment.
3. GBP Trades
- As the *CB Leading Index* result is not expected to be high-impact, GBP might trade range-bound today. However, if other major currencies are weak (e.g., JPY), GBP might benefit.
4. Avoid Trades with EUR, CAD, and USD Pairs
- Due to bank holidays, these pairs might experience low volatility and liquidity, making it less favorable for active trading.
#### Summary
- Best Pairs to Consider: Buy NZD/JPY or potentially sell JPY against stronger currencies like GBP.
- Avoid trading EUR, CAD, and USD pairs due to expected low liquidity.
Remember to set stop-losses carefully, as unexpected volatility could arise due to lower liquidity in some markets today.
### Key Events and Impact Levels
1. JPY Events (Moderate to Low Impact)
- *Bank Lending y/y*: Actual is 2.7%, matching the forecast, indicating steady lending conditions.
- *BOJ Summary of Opinions*: Provides insights into the Bank of Japan’s stance on economic policy, potentially affecting JPY.
- *Current Account*: A significant miss with an actual of 1.27T versus a forecast of 2.80T, which could weaken JPY as it signals a lower-than-expected surplus.
2. NZD Event (High Impact)
- *Inflation Expectations q/q*: Actual is 2.12%, slightly above the previous 2.03%. Higher inflation expectations might support a stronger NZD if it raises the likelihood of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
3. CNY Events (Moderate Impact)
- *New Loans and M2 Money Supply y/y*: These are tentative dates (11th-15th). If actual loan growth or money supply exceeds expectations, it could positively impact CNY and commodities, as they suggest increased economic activity in China.
4. EUR, CAD, and USD Bank Holidays
- Lower liquidity expected for EUR, CAD, and USD, which could result in reduced volatility and potentially less trading volume.
5. GBP Event (Moderate Impact)
- *CB Leading Index m/m*: Forecast and previous data are low, suggesting a muted reaction unless there’s a surprise.
### Suggested Trading Strategy
1. JPY Trades
- Consider a bearish stance on JPY, especially against stronger currencies (like USD or NZD), due to the lower-than-expected Current Account surplus.
- Monitor the *Economy Watchers Sentiment* at 1:00 PM, as any negative sentiment could further weaken JPY.
2. NZD Trades
- The positive inflation expectations might make NZD an attractive buy today, especially against weaker currencies like JPY or EUR (due to the bank holiday).
- Pairing NZD against JPY could be advantageous with the current economic sentiment.
3. GBP Trades
- As the *CB Leading Index* result is not expected to be high-impact, GBP might trade range-bound today. However, if other major currencies are weak (e.g., JPY), GBP might benefit.
4. Avoid Trades with EUR, CAD, and USD Pairs
- Due to bank holidays, these pairs might experience low volatility and liquidity, making it less favorable for active trading.
#### Summary
- Best Pairs to Consider: Buy NZD/JPY or potentially sell JPY against stronger currencies like GBP.
- Avoid trading EUR, CAD, and USD pairs due to expected low liquidity.
Remember to set stop-losses carefully, as unexpected volatility could arise due to lower liquidity in some markets today.
November 11, 2024
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November 13, 2024