Among the traders' cognitive biases, one of the first places is held by false prediction.
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This is when you see, for example, that the price has gone up, and you say: "Well, I thought so!" It does not matter at all whether you made a good deal or not. It's just that in the first case you think: “What a fine fellow I am”, and in the second - “I knew that I would trample upwards, and I stormed! 😕 "
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At the same time, in fact, there is no clear justification for these "I thought so, I knew so". Moreover, doubts could swarm in my head. But when the price shot up, the brain forgot about all the options that you were considering, except for the "right" one. And the impression was that you actually predicted the behavior of the market 🔮
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Professional fortune-tellers and astrologers, who cheat the client, use the principle of “whether it will be or not” with might and main. They throw in several scenarios at once, and when one of them "comes true", the client (he is a "fool") instantly forgets about all the others. And again he brings money to the “seer”.
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Now guess who the fool is in those cases when you say: "Well, I just knew that oil will rise in price!" or "I felt that the oil would fall!" 😉
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What is the problem? If you made a good deal - great, if you missed the moment - it's a shame, of course, but it happens.
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And the problem is that Mr. "Iknowit" is forming the thinking of the forecaster. Each time he is more and more convinced of his ability to foresee the future. And one day, thinking that oil will probably rise in price, he will invest in oil assets on a grand scale, forgetting about the principles of trading strategy and risk management.
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Learn to separate what you can really predict from what the inner fortuneteller sang.
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