India halts key policy plans as revenues shrink, palm oil spat with Malaysia affects import taxes
NEW DELHI, March 17 — India has dropped at least three crucial policy initiatives, including lowering import taxes on vegetable oils, as the outbreak of the coronavirus hits government revenue collection, two sources said on Tuesday...…. https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2020/03/17/india-halts-key-policy-plans-as-revenues-shrink-palm-oil-spat-with-malaysia/1847534
NEW DELHI, March 17 — India has dropped at least three crucial policy initiatives, including lowering import taxes on vegetable oils, as the outbreak of the coronavirus hits government revenue collection, two sources said on Tuesday...…. https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2020/03/17/india-halts-key-policy-plans-as-revenues-shrink-palm-oil-spat-with-malaysia/1847534
🇺🇸 Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 on Thursday as investors shrugged off the release of record-breaking initial jobless claims while the Senate passed a massive economic stimulus bill amid the coronavirus outbreak.
* Dow +1,351 (+6.3%)
* S&P +154 (+6.2%)
* Nasdaq +413 (+5.6%)
🦠 The United States on Thursday surpassed China and Italy as the country with the most coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters tally, as New York, New Orleans and other hot spots faced a surge in hospitalizations and looming shortages in supplies, staff and sick beds.
📝 Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies pledged on Thursday to inject $5 trillion in fiscal spending into the global economy to blunt the economic impact of the coronavirus and “do whatever it takes to overcome the pandemic.”
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell said, "we may well be in recession" and that "we would tend to listen to the experts" on when normal activity should resume." Powell also pledged to keep credit flowing when he said, "when it comes to lending we're not going to run out of ammunition."
🇪🇺 The ECB published a text of its 750 billion euro ($819 billion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) that stated it will scrap the issuer limits on purchases of bonds and widened the scope of buying to include instruments with as little as 70 days left to maturity. This decision removes virtually all constraints on asset purchases.
🇺🇸 U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims surged +3.001 million to a record 3.283 million (data from 1967), showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.700 million. Weekly continuing claims rose +101,000 to a 23-month high of 1.803 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.791 million.
€ European markets closed higher after U.S. jobless claims ballooned to a record high amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
⛽ Oil prices dropped more than $1 a barrel as comments from the Executive Director of the IEA who said global oil demand is in freefall because of the coronavirus pandemic and "we may see global oil demand fall as much as 20 million bpd, and the action by the U.S. to cancel a planned purchase of 77 million bbl of crude to replenish the SPR.
* Crude oil $22.60 (-1.89/-7.7%)
* Brent crude $26.34 (-1.05/-3.8%)
⛽ The plunge in oil prices took a number of high-profile sovereign rating scalps on Thursday, including Nigeria, Mexico, Angola, Ecuador and Oman, although the architects of the slump, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were both spared.
👑 Gold prices jumped to a two-week high after a record surge in U.S. jobless claims dented the dollar and boosted expectations of further stimulus to cushion the global economic toll from the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to 1,649 per ounce.
🌴FCPO (RM2357, -26) closed lower on Thursday as worries over a disruption in demand deepened after several nations, including top buyer India, enforced lockdowns to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The closure of major ports around the world is resulting in shipping operations going awry. This coupled with demand worries is adding to the selling pressure. Appreciation in Ringgit, profit taking after 4 days of gains, reversal in the equities markets and lack of fresh lead weighed down on the CPO Futures. Key support and resistance level to be seen at 2300 and 2430.
* Dow +1,351 (+6.3%)
* S&P +154 (+6.2%)
* Nasdaq +413 (+5.6%)
🦠 The United States on Thursday surpassed China and Italy as the country with the most coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters tally, as New York, New Orleans and other hot spots faced a surge in hospitalizations and looming shortages in supplies, staff and sick beds.
📝 Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies pledged on Thursday to inject $5 trillion in fiscal spending into the global economy to blunt the economic impact of the coronavirus and “do whatever it takes to overcome the pandemic.”
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell said, "we may well be in recession" and that "we would tend to listen to the experts" on when normal activity should resume." Powell also pledged to keep credit flowing when he said, "when it comes to lending we're not going to run out of ammunition."
🇪🇺 The ECB published a text of its 750 billion euro ($819 billion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) that stated it will scrap the issuer limits on purchases of bonds and widened the scope of buying to include instruments with as little as 70 days left to maturity. This decision removes virtually all constraints on asset purchases.
🇺🇸 U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims surged +3.001 million to a record 3.283 million (data from 1967), showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.700 million. Weekly continuing claims rose +101,000 to a 23-month high of 1.803 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.791 million.
€ European markets closed higher after U.S. jobless claims ballooned to a record high amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
⛽ Oil prices dropped more than $1 a barrel as comments from the Executive Director of the IEA who said global oil demand is in freefall because of the coronavirus pandemic and "we may see global oil demand fall as much as 20 million bpd, and the action by the U.S. to cancel a planned purchase of 77 million bbl of crude to replenish the SPR.
* Crude oil $22.60 (-1.89/-7.7%)
* Brent crude $26.34 (-1.05/-3.8%)
⛽ The plunge in oil prices took a number of high-profile sovereign rating scalps on Thursday, including Nigeria, Mexico, Angola, Ecuador and Oman, although the architects of the slump, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were both spared.
👑 Gold prices jumped to a two-week high after a record surge in U.S. jobless claims dented the dollar and boosted expectations of further stimulus to cushion the global economic toll from the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to 1,649 per ounce.
🌴FCPO (RM2357, -26) closed lower on Thursday as worries over a disruption in demand deepened after several nations, including top buyer India, enforced lockdowns to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The closure of major ports around the world is resulting in shipping operations going awry. This coupled with demand worries is adding to the selling pressure. Appreciation in Ringgit, profit taking after 4 days of gains, reversal in the equities markets and lack of fresh lead weighed down on the CPO Futures. Key support and resistance level to be seen at 2300 and 2430.
FCPO May 2526 (+100)
FCPO June 2454 (+76)
O: 2415
H: 2465
L: 2402
FCPO July 2411 (+63)
O: 2397
H: 2423
L: 2375
FCPO Aug 2378 (+48)
O: 2397
H: 2423
L: 2375
Regional Updates
Dalian 4990 (+162)
Soyoil May 27.09 (+0.24)
Crude oil 20.36 (-1.15)
RM 4.3405 (+0.24%)
FCPO June 2454 (+76)
O: 2415
H: 2465
L: 2402
FCPO July 2411 (+63)
O: 2397
H: 2423
L: 2375
FCPO Aug 2378 (+48)
O: 2397
H: 2423
L: 2375
Regional Updates
Dalian 4990 (+162)
Soyoil May 27.09 (+0.24)
Crude oil 20.36 (-1.15)
RM 4.3405 (+0.24%)
⛽️ Global oil benchmark Brent crude plunged to its cheapest level in almost 18 years on Monday and U.S. crude briefly tumbled below $20 a barrel as investors faced the growing prospect that the global coronavirus shutdown could last for months, further squeezing demand for fuel.
* Crude oil $20.09 (-1.42/-6.6%)
* Brent crude $22.76 (-2.17/-8.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks rose, led in part by healthcare stocks as investors looked for shares that have become cheap and can withstand the impact to the economy from efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus.
* Dow +690 (+3.1%)
* S&P +85 (+3.3%)
* Nasdaq +271 (+3.6%)
🇺🇸 President Trump on Sunday said he will heed advice from doctors and not try to restart U.S. activity by Easter weekend and instead said that Americans will need to practice "social distancing" until at least April 30.
🇺🇸 St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that he gets the sense that U.S. businesses are in a partial shutdown nationwide and that interest rates will probably stay low for quite a while.
🇺🇸 The Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity plunged -71.2 to a record low of -70.0 (data from 2005), much weaker than expectations of -11.2 to -10.0.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Mar economic confidence fell -8.9 to a 6-1/2 year low of 94.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 91.6.
€ European markets flipped higher and extended gains on Monday afternoon, as the coronavirus pandemic remained in focus for investors.
🇩🇪 The German Council of Economic Experts, the government’s economic advisers, predict that even if most business and movement restrictions from the coronavirus pandemic are lifted by mid-May, German 2020 GDP will still contract by -2.8%. If restrictions last longer, the economy could contract as much as -5.4%.
🇨🇳 The People's Bank of China (PBOC) today cut the interest rate on 7-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 bp to 2.2% as it ramps up efforts to boost liquidity into the financial system. The move added 50 billion yuan ($7.1 billion) into the banking system.
👑 Gold prices inched up after an extension of restrictions in the United States exacerbated concerns about the economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic, driving investors to safe-haven assets. U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower to $1,622 an ounce.
🌴FCPO (RM2441, +63) jumped more than 2% on Monday, tracking a rally in Dalian edible oil prices as supply concerns deepened after the world's second-largest producer shut down more palm operations in an effort to contain the coronavirus. Palm surged as much as 3.7% during the session after Malaysia's largest palm oil state, Sabah, extended a shutdown of plantations and factories until April 14 and widened the order to six districts. Market moved higher on stronger Dalian prices as China reduced repo rates and on fears that supply for soybean products and palm could falter. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2360 to 2500 respectively.
* Crude oil $20.09 (-1.42/-6.6%)
* Brent crude $22.76 (-2.17/-8.7%)
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks rose, led in part by healthcare stocks as investors looked for shares that have become cheap and can withstand the impact to the economy from efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus.
* Dow +690 (+3.1%)
* S&P +85 (+3.3%)
* Nasdaq +271 (+3.6%)
🇺🇸 President Trump on Sunday said he will heed advice from doctors and not try to restart U.S. activity by Easter weekend and instead said that Americans will need to practice "social distancing" until at least April 30.
🇺🇸 St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that he gets the sense that U.S. businesses are in a partial shutdown nationwide and that interest rates will probably stay low for quite a while.
🇺🇸 The Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity plunged -71.2 to a record low of -70.0 (data from 2005), much weaker than expectations of -11.2 to -10.0.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Mar economic confidence fell -8.9 to a 6-1/2 year low of 94.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 91.6.
€ European markets flipped higher and extended gains on Monday afternoon, as the coronavirus pandemic remained in focus for investors.
🇩🇪 The German Council of Economic Experts, the government’s economic advisers, predict that even if most business and movement restrictions from the coronavirus pandemic are lifted by mid-May, German 2020 GDP will still contract by -2.8%. If restrictions last longer, the economy could contract as much as -5.4%.
🇨🇳 The People's Bank of China (PBOC) today cut the interest rate on 7-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 bp to 2.2% as it ramps up efforts to boost liquidity into the financial system. The move added 50 billion yuan ($7.1 billion) into the banking system.
👑 Gold prices inched up after an extension of restrictions in the United States exacerbated concerns about the economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic, driving investors to safe-haven assets. U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower to $1,622 an ounce.
🌴FCPO (RM2441, +63) jumped more than 2% on Monday, tracking a rally in Dalian edible oil prices as supply concerns deepened after the world's second-largest producer shut down more palm operations in an effort to contain the coronavirus. Palm surged as much as 3.7% during the session after Malaysia's largest palm oil state, Sabah, extended a shutdown of plantations and factories until April 14 and widened the order to six districts. Market moved higher on stronger Dalian prices as China reduced repo rates and on fears that supply for soybean products and palm could falter. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2360 to 2500 respectively.
🇺🇸📣 White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the U.S. with coronavirus fatalities peaking over the next two weeks.
🇺🇸 The Conference Board's U.S. Mar consumer confidence index fell -12.6 to a 2-3/4 year low of 120.0, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 110.0.
🇺🇸 The U.S. Mar Chicago PMI fell -1.2 to 47.8, stronger than expectations of -9.0 to 40.0.
🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs raised their estimate for contraction in the U.S. economy as they now project U.S. Q2 GDP to contract by -34%, higher than a previous estimate of -24%.
🇨🇳 The China Mar manufacturing PMI rose +16.3 to 52.0, stronger than expectations of +9.1 to 44.8 and the strongest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years. The Mar non-manufacturing PMI rose +22.7 to 52.3, stronger than expectations of 12.4 to 42.0.
🇺🇸 Wall Street’s three major indexes tumbled on Tuesday, with the Dow registering its biggest quarterly decline since 1987 and the S&P 500 suffering its deepest quarterly drop since the financial crisis on growing evidence of massive economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.
* Dow -410 (-1.8%)
* S&P -42 (-1.6%)
* Nasdaq -74 (-0.95%)
🇺🇸 U.S. lawmakers prepare for a fourth round of rescue measures to get the U.S. economy through the coronavirus pandemic.
€ European shares closed higher after some positive Chinese manufacturing data, but completed their worst quarter since 2002 due to the coronavirus crisis and fears of an immediate recession in the region. Also, European stocks higher after the World Health Organization (WHO) said there are signs of some stabilization in Europe's coronavirus outbreak.
⛽️ Oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks aimed at stabilizing energy markets, with benchmarks climbing off 18-year lows hit as the coronavirus outbreak cut fuel demand worldwide.
* Crude oil $20.48 (+0.39)
* Brent crude $22.74 (-0.02)
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite closed up +0.11% after the China Mar manufacturing PMI rose +16.3 to a 2-1/2 year high of 52.0, although stocks fell back from their best levels after China's Bureau of Statistics warned that the single-month data didn't necessarily mean the economy has returned to normal.
👑 Gold prices dipped over 2% to their lowest in a week on Tuesday as the dollar firmed, but the metal was on track for a sixth straight quarterly rise on concerns of global economic damage due to the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures lost 2.4% to $1,603.60.
🌴FCPO (RM2402, - 39) closed lower on Tuesday, as demand concerns due to coronarivus-driven global shutdowns outweighed supply disruptions in the world's second-largest palm producer. In the previous session, palm gained as much as 3.7% on supply concerns after Malaysia extended a shutdown of some plantations and factories until April 14 and widened the order to six districts. Malaysia's March exports rose between 6.1% and 6.9% from the month before, cargo surveyors said on Tuesday. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2360 to 2500 respectively.
🇺🇸 The Conference Board's U.S. Mar consumer confidence index fell -12.6 to a 2-3/4 year low of 120.0, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 110.0.
🇺🇸 The U.S. Mar Chicago PMI fell -1.2 to 47.8, stronger than expectations of -9.0 to 40.0.
🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs raised their estimate for contraction in the U.S. economy as they now project U.S. Q2 GDP to contract by -34%, higher than a previous estimate of -24%.
🇨🇳 The China Mar manufacturing PMI rose +16.3 to 52.0, stronger than expectations of +9.1 to 44.8 and the strongest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years. The Mar non-manufacturing PMI rose +22.7 to 52.3, stronger than expectations of 12.4 to 42.0.
🇺🇸 Wall Street’s three major indexes tumbled on Tuesday, with the Dow registering its biggest quarterly decline since 1987 and the S&P 500 suffering its deepest quarterly drop since the financial crisis on growing evidence of massive economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.
* Dow -410 (-1.8%)
* S&P -42 (-1.6%)
* Nasdaq -74 (-0.95%)
🇺🇸 U.S. lawmakers prepare for a fourth round of rescue measures to get the U.S. economy through the coronavirus pandemic.
€ European shares closed higher after some positive Chinese manufacturing data, but completed their worst quarter since 2002 due to the coronavirus crisis and fears of an immediate recession in the region. Also, European stocks higher after the World Health Organization (WHO) said there are signs of some stabilization in Europe's coronavirus outbreak.
⛽️ Oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks aimed at stabilizing energy markets, with benchmarks climbing off 18-year lows hit as the coronavirus outbreak cut fuel demand worldwide.
* Crude oil $20.48 (+0.39)
* Brent crude $22.74 (-0.02)
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite closed up +0.11% after the China Mar manufacturing PMI rose +16.3 to a 2-1/2 year high of 52.0, although stocks fell back from their best levels after China's Bureau of Statistics warned that the single-month data didn't necessarily mean the economy has returned to normal.
👑 Gold prices dipped over 2% to their lowest in a week on Tuesday as the dollar firmed, but the metal was on track for a sixth straight quarterly rise on concerns of global economic damage due to the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures lost 2.4% to $1,603.60.
🌴FCPO (RM2402, - 39) closed lower on Tuesday, as demand concerns due to coronarivus-driven global shutdowns outweighed supply disruptions in the world's second-largest palm producer. In the previous session, palm gained as much as 3.7% on supply concerns after Malaysia extended a shutdown of some plantations and factories until April 14 and widened the order to six districts. Malaysia's March exports rose between 6.1% and 6.9% from the month before, cargo surveyors said on Tuesday. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2360 to 2500 respectively.
🇺🇸 Wall Street’s three major indexes fell more than 4% after President Donald Trump’s dire warning on the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus sent investors running from even the most defensive equities.
* Dow 20,943 (-973/-4.4%)
* S&P 2,470 (-114/-4.4%)
* Nasdaq 7,360 (-339/-4.4%)
🇺🇸 The U.S. Mar ISM manufacturing index fell -1.0 to 49.1, stronger than expectations of -5.6 to 44.5. The Mar ISM prices-paid sub-index fell -8.5 to 37.4, weaker than expectations of -4.1 to 41.8 and the steepest pace of contraction in 4 years.
🇺🇸 Boston Fed President Rosengren said it's "likely we'll have two negative quarters of U.S. growth" and the Fed and Congress have more to do to contain the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
🇪🇺 The Eurozone Mar Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower by -0.3 to 44.5, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 44.6 and the steepest pace of contraction in 7-1/2 years.
€ European shares closed 3% lower after US warns of soaring coronavirus death toll. Banks fell 5.8% after U.K. lenders announced they would scrap dividends in 2020 following pressure from the Bank of England.
🇪🇺 ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB must keep interest rates very low as "we have the capacity to support economic activity and financing of debt at least for some time" and it is possible because "inflation is low."
⛽️ Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose last week by the most since 2016, while gasoline demand suffered its biggest weekly drop ever due to the coronavirus pandemic. The +13.83 million bbl surge in EIA crude inventories to a 9-month high of 469.19 million bbl, well above expectations of +4.0 million bbl
* Crude oil $20.31 (-0.17)
* Brent crude $24.74 (-1.61/-6.1%)
⛽️ Whiting Petroleum Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the U.S. shale producer said on Wednesday, the first publicly traded casualty of crashing crude oil prices that are expected to bite into record U.S. output.
🇯🇵 Nikkei Stock Index closed down -4.50% at a 1-week low. Japanese stocks tumbled on growing virus infection concerns after Japan's Health Minister said the infection situation in Japan is becoming more severe. New cases of the coronavirus in Tokyo jumped by 78 (+18%) Wednesday to 521. Also, the Japan Q1 Tankan survey showed sentiment among large manufacturers fell to a 7-year low.
👑 Gold prices firmed as investors sought safe-haven assets after somber U.S. economic data exacerbated fears of a economic downturn amid increasing lockdowns and other restrictions globally to combat the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,591.40.
🌴FCPO (RM2339, -63) dropped 2% on Wednesday, mirroring losses in rival oils, pressured by growing worries over a plunge in demand as more countries go into lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic. Palm traded lower on expectations for reduced purchases moving forward and estimates of better March palm oil production. FCPO was volatile during the morning session as the market discussed estimates for the official supply and demand data due on April 10. However, worries over demand deepened as countries around the world, including key buyers India and the European Union, stayed in lockdowns to contain the spread of the virus. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2320 to 2450 respectively.
* Dow 20,943 (-973/-4.4%)
* S&P 2,470 (-114/-4.4%)
* Nasdaq 7,360 (-339/-4.4%)
🇺🇸 The U.S. Mar ISM manufacturing index fell -1.0 to 49.1, stronger than expectations of -5.6 to 44.5. The Mar ISM prices-paid sub-index fell -8.5 to 37.4, weaker than expectations of -4.1 to 41.8 and the steepest pace of contraction in 4 years.
🇺🇸 Boston Fed President Rosengren said it's "likely we'll have two negative quarters of U.S. growth" and the Fed and Congress have more to do to contain the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
🇪🇺 The Eurozone Mar Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower by -0.3 to 44.5, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 44.6 and the steepest pace of contraction in 7-1/2 years.
€ European shares closed 3% lower after US warns of soaring coronavirus death toll. Banks fell 5.8% after U.K. lenders announced they would scrap dividends in 2020 following pressure from the Bank of England.
🇪🇺 ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB must keep interest rates very low as "we have the capacity to support economic activity and financing of debt at least for some time" and it is possible because "inflation is low."
⛽️ Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose last week by the most since 2016, while gasoline demand suffered its biggest weekly drop ever due to the coronavirus pandemic. The +13.83 million bbl surge in EIA crude inventories to a 9-month high of 469.19 million bbl, well above expectations of +4.0 million bbl
* Crude oil $20.31 (-0.17)
* Brent crude $24.74 (-1.61/-6.1%)
⛽️ Whiting Petroleum Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the U.S. shale producer said on Wednesday, the first publicly traded casualty of crashing crude oil prices that are expected to bite into record U.S. output.
🇯🇵 Nikkei Stock Index closed down -4.50% at a 1-week low. Japanese stocks tumbled on growing virus infection concerns after Japan's Health Minister said the infection situation in Japan is becoming more severe. New cases of the coronavirus in Tokyo jumped by 78 (+18%) Wednesday to 521. Also, the Japan Q1 Tankan survey showed sentiment among large manufacturers fell to a 7-year low.
👑 Gold prices firmed as investors sought safe-haven assets after somber U.S. economic data exacerbated fears of a economic downturn amid increasing lockdowns and other restrictions globally to combat the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,591.40.
🌴FCPO (RM2339, -63) dropped 2% on Wednesday, mirroring losses in rival oils, pressured by growing worries over a plunge in demand as more countries go into lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic. Palm traded lower on expectations for reduced purchases moving forward and estimates of better March palm oil production. FCPO was volatile during the morning session as the market discussed estimates for the official supply and demand data due on April 10. However, worries over demand deepened as countries around the world, including key buyers India and the European Union, stayed in lockdowns to contain the spread of the virus. From a technical view, next key support and resistance seen at 2320 to 2450 respectively.
🌴 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on April 10. The average estimate of end March palm oil stocks is 1.651 MMT (1.576- 1.700 MMT range of ideas), down slightly from February stocks of 1.682 MMT (2.923 MMT last year March) and would be the lowest since June 2017. March palm oil production is estimated at 1.314 MMT (1.243-1.400 MMT range) vs 1.289 MMT in February and 1.672 MMT last year March, while palm oil exports in March are estimated at 1.147 MMT (1.008-1.150 MMT range) vs 1.082 MMT in February and 1.619 MMT last year March.
🌴Palm oil was solidly higher yesterday on concerns additional coronavirus-related restrictions will further reduce palm oil production in the near term. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association estimates the loss of 189k tonnes of crude palm oil production as a result of the current 14-day shutdown in the county’s largest palm oil-producing state.
⛽️ OPEC and its allies led by Russia agreed on Thursday to cut their oil output by more than a fifth ( 10 million bpd ) and said they expected the United States and other producers to join in their effort to prop up prices hammered by the coronavirus crisis.
⛽️ Oil prices tumbled on doubts that a deal between OPEC and allies to make a record oil supply cut would be enough to offset the collapse in global fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
* Crude oil $22.76 (-2.33/-9.1%)
* Brent crude $31.48 (-1.36/-4.1%)
🇺🇸 Wall Street closed out the trading week on a high note on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve unleashed another program designed to buoy local governments and businesses crushed by massive closures to stem the coronavirus outbreak.
* Dow +285 (+1.22%)
* S&P +39 (+1.45%)
* Nasdaq +62 (+0.77%)
🇺🇸 U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -261,000 to 6.606 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 5.500 million. Weekly continuing claims rose +4.396 million to a record 7.455 million.
🇺🇸 The University of Michigan U.S. Apr consumer sentiment fell -18.1 to an 8-1/4 year low of 71.0, weaker than expectations of -14.1 to 75.0.
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell said the Fed will act "forcefully" to enable a U.S. recovery. He added that market conditions generally improved after Fed actions and there are reasons to believe that an economic rebound can be robust when it comes.
🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased to a record $6.13 trillion this week as the central bank used its nearly unlimited buying power to soak up assets and keep markets functioning smoothly.
🇺🇸 Under the Fed’s $2.3 trillion package, the U.S. central bank said it would work with banks to offer four-year loans to companies of up to 10,000 employees and directly buy bonds of states and more populous counties and cities.
🇪🇺 European markets closed higher as investors digested the latest U.S. jobless data and a $2.3 trillion stimulus package from the Federal Reserve. Also, new cases of the coronavirus in Germany climbed the most in five days and Spain and Italy said they are poised to extend their nationwide lockdowns to slow the spread of the virus.
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite closed up +0.37% at a 3-1/2 week high on expectations for additional government measures to spur growth after the Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese leaders at a politburo meeting pledged to expand domestic demand to boost public consumption and investment. The meeting also called for faster construction of investment projects and to make sure the service sector can return to normal operations to encourage consumption.
🇯🇵 Japan Mar machine tool orders fell -40.8% y/y, the eighteenth consecutive month orders have fallen and the largest decline in 10-1/4 years.
👑 Gold prices surged over 2% to their highest in a month after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a massive stimulus to combat the economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures soared 3% to $1,734.20.
🌴FCPO (RM2304, -11) reversed early gains on Thursday, falling over 2% on concerns of a prolonged slump in global demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Palm oil producers must brace for crude palm oil prices to fall sharply as coronavirus-led lockdowns around the world curb consumption and boost stockpiles, leading industry analyst James Fry told Reuters. Furthermore, market drop further on profit taking activities amid cautiouness ahead of exports and MPOB data set to be released on Friday. News of Indonesian govt. requiring additional
fund to funds to finance biodiesel program amidst the widening CPO-GO spread intensified sellling activities. From a technical view, support and resistance at 2300 and 2400.
⛽️ Oil prices tumbled on doubts that a deal between OPEC and allies to make a record oil supply cut would be enough to offset the collapse in global fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
* Crude oil $22.76 (-2.33/-9.1%)
* Brent crude $31.48 (-1.36/-4.1%)
🇺🇸 Wall Street closed out the trading week on a high note on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve unleashed another program designed to buoy local governments and businesses crushed by massive closures to stem the coronavirus outbreak.
* Dow +285 (+1.22%)
* S&P +39 (+1.45%)
* Nasdaq +62 (+0.77%)
🇺🇸 U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -261,000 to 6.606 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 5.500 million. Weekly continuing claims rose +4.396 million to a record 7.455 million.
🇺🇸 The University of Michigan U.S. Apr consumer sentiment fell -18.1 to an 8-1/4 year low of 71.0, weaker than expectations of -14.1 to 75.0.
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell said the Fed will act "forcefully" to enable a U.S. recovery. He added that market conditions generally improved after Fed actions and there are reasons to believe that an economic rebound can be robust when it comes.
🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased to a record $6.13 trillion this week as the central bank used its nearly unlimited buying power to soak up assets and keep markets functioning smoothly.
🇺🇸 Under the Fed’s $2.3 trillion package, the U.S. central bank said it would work with banks to offer four-year loans to companies of up to 10,000 employees and directly buy bonds of states and more populous counties and cities.
🇪🇺 European markets closed higher as investors digested the latest U.S. jobless data and a $2.3 trillion stimulus package from the Federal Reserve. Also, new cases of the coronavirus in Germany climbed the most in five days and Spain and Italy said they are poised to extend their nationwide lockdowns to slow the spread of the virus.
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite closed up +0.37% at a 3-1/2 week high on expectations for additional government measures to spur growth after the Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese leaders at a politburo meeting pledged to expand domestic demand to boost public consumption and investment. The meeting also called for faster construction of investment projects and to make sure the service sector can return to normal operations to encourage consumption.
🇯🇵 Japan Mar machine tool orders fell -40.8% y/y, the eighteenth consecutive month orders have fallen and the largest decline in 10-1/4 years.
👑 Gold prices surged over 2% to their highest in a month after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a massive stimulus to combat the economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. gold futures soared 3% to $1,734.20.
🌴FCPO (RM2304, -11) reversed early gains on Thursday, falling over 2% on concerns of a prolonged slump in global demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Palm oil producers must brace for crude palm oil prices to fall sharply as coronavirus-led lockdowns around the world curb consumption and boost stockpiles, leading industry analyst James Fry told Reuters. Furthermore, market drop further on profit taking activities amid cautiouness ahead of exports and MPOB data set to be released on Friday. News of Indonesian govt. requiring additional
fund to funds to finance biodiesel program amidst the widening CPO-GO spread intensified sellling activities. From a technical view, support and resistance at 2300 and 2400.
Malaysian Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has announced that the movement control order (MCO) will be extended for another two weeks, from April 15 to April 28 to curb the spread of Covid-19.
MALAYSIA'S MARCH PALM OIL END-STOCKS UP 1.67% TO 1,728,581 MLN T FROM FEB - MPOB _ REUTERS NEWS
MALAYSIA'S MARCH PALM OIL PRODUCTION UP 8.44% TO 1,397,313 MLN T FROM FEB - MPOB
MALAYSIA'S MARCH EXPORTS UP 9.15% TO 1,181,422 MLN T FROM FEB - MPOB
MALAYSIA'S MARCH PALM OIL PRODUCTION UP 8.44% TO 1,397,313 MLN T FROM FEB - MPOB
MALAYSIA'S MARCH EXPORTS UP 9.15% TO 1,181,422 MLN T FROM FEB - MPOB
⛽️📣 OPEC and allies led by Russia agreed on Sunday to a record cut in output to prop up oil prices amid the coronavirus pandemic and said they had an unprecedented deal with fellow oil nations, including the United States, to curb global oil supply by 20% or amount to more than 20 million bpd effective May 1.
⛽️ Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand. In early trade :
* Brent crude $31.54 (+0.06)
* WTI crude oil $22.54 (-0.22)
🇺🇸 Dow Jones futures fell Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with investors weighing some hopeful coronavirus news and a finalized OPEC+ crude oil production cut deal.
🌏 Stocks in Asia were mixed on Friday, with major markets across the region closed for the Good Friday holiday.
📝 On Sunday, World Bank forecasts worst economic slump in South Asia in 40 years.
🇨🇳 Chinese consumer inflation rising in March on a year-on-year basis. China’s consumer price index for March rose 4.3% year-on-year, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.
🇰🇷 South Korea’s Kospi added 1.33% to close at 1,860.70. Shares of Samsung Biologics skyrocketed 16.82% after the firm announced Thursday that it had entered into an agreement with Vir Biotechnology for large-scale manufacturing of SARS-COV-2 antibodies for potential Covid-19 treatment.
🇺🇸 Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said its U.S. Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in March, after a 0.1% rise in February, fastest pace in five years, economists were expecting to see a 0.3% decline.
🌴FCPO (RM2312, +8) recovered from earlier losses after announcement that Malaysia government are extending the movement control order to 28 April which may cause uncertainties in supplies. The latest MPOB data were relatively bearish in which productions in March were higher than expected while stocks increased. Meanwhile, recent 1-10 Apr exports showed a decline of 12.40% from the same time in March. From a technical view, support and resistance remains at 2300 and 2400.
⛽️ Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand. In early trade :
* Brent crude $31.54 (+0.06)
* WTI crude oil $22.54 (-0.22)
🇺🇸 Dow Jones futures fell Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with investors weighing some hopeful coronavirus news and a finalized OPEC+ crude oil production cut deal.
🌏 Stocks in Asia were mixed on Friday, with major markets across the region closed for the Good Friday holiday.
📝 On Sunday, World Bank forecasts worst economic slump in South Asia in 40 years.
🇨🇳 Chinese consumer inflation rising in March on a year-on-year basis. China’s consumer price index for March rose 4.3% year-on-year, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.
🇰🇷 South Korea’s Kospi added 1.33% to close at 1,860.70. Shares of Samsung Biologics skyrocketed 16.82% after the firm announced Thursday that it had entered into an agreement with Vir Biotechnology for large-scale manufacturing of SARS-COV-2 antibodies for potential Covid-19 treatment.
🇺🇸 Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said its U.S. Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in March, after a 0.1% rise in February, fastest pace in five years, economists were expecting to see a 0.3% decline.
🌴FCPO (RM2312, +8) recovered from earlier losses after announcement that Malaysia government are extending the movement control order to 28 April which may cause uncertainties in supplies. The latest MPOB data were relatively bearish in which productions in March were higher than expected while stocks increased. Meanwhile, recent 1-10 Apr exports showed a decline of 12.40% from the same time in March. From a technical view, support and resistance remains at 2300 and 2400.
India modifies rules for refined palm oil imports
Reuters News
2020/04/13 21:07
MUMBAI, April 13 (Reuters) - India on Monday said imports of refined palm oil could recommence after being restricted in January, although with conditions attached.
The world's biggest importer of palm oil on Monday said in a statement that importers would need to furnish pre-purchase agreements and import the commodity within six months of receiving the licence, instead of 18 months previously.
The change could increase imports of refined palm oil in coming months, said a Mumbai-based refiner.
"The government might be worried about supplies due to the (coronavirus) lockdown," the refiner said.
Palm oil accounts for nearly two-thirds of India's total edible oil imports. The country buys more than 9 million tonnes of palm oil annually, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the world's biggest producer of palm oil, followed by Malaysia.
Reuters News
2020/04/13 21:07
MUMBAI, April 13 (Reuters) - India on Monday said imports of refined palm oil could recommence after being restricted in January, although with conditions attached.
The world's biggest importer of palm oil on Monday said in a statement that importers would need to furnish pre-purchase agreements and import the commodity within six months of receiving the licence, instead of 18 months previously.
The change could increase imports of refined palm oil in coming months, said a Mumbai-based refiner.
"The government might be worried about supplies due to the (coronavirus) lockdown," the refiner said.
Palm oil accounts for nearly two-thirds of India's total edible oil imports. The country buys more than 9 million tonnes of palm oil annually, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the world's biggest producer of palm oil, followed by Malaysia.
⛽️ An extreme situation has developed in the U.S. crude oil futures markets, as the current front-month May contract expiring on Tuesday has dropped by a whopping 40%, opening up the widest gap ever between it and the next contract, nearly $11 a barrel.
Oil price crashes into negative territory for the first time in history amid pandemic - Reuters News
✿Expiring front-month May WTI falls to lowest on record
U.S. May-June futures spread hits widest on record
✿Global supply-demand imbalance driving down prices
✿European first-quarter corporate earnings seen down 22%
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on Monday for the first time in history, amid a coronavirus-induced supply glut, ending the day at a stunning minus $37.63 a barrel as desperate traders paid to get rid of oil.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, also slumped, but that contract was nowhere near as weak because more storage is available worldwide.
While U.S. oil prices are trading in negative territory for the first time ever, it is unclear whether that will trickle down to consumers, who typically see lower oil prices translate into cheaper gasoline at the pump.
As billions of people around the globe stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, physical demand for crude has dried up, creating a global supply glut.
Traders fled from the expiring May U.S. oil futures contract in a frenzy on Monday with no place to put the crude, but the June WTI contract CLc2 settled at a much higher level of $20.43 a barrel.
The May U.S. WTI contract CLc1 fell $55.90, or 306%, to settle at a discount of $37.63 a barrel after touching an all-time low of -$40.32 a barrel. Brent LCOc1 was down $2.51, or 9%, to settle at $25.57 a barrel.
✿Expiring front-month May WTI falls to lowest on record
U.S. May-June futures spread hits widest on record
✿Global supply-demand imbalance driving down prices
✿European first-quarter corporate earnings seen down 22%
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on Monday for the first time in history, amid a coronavirus-induced supply glut, ending the day at a stunning minus $37.63 a barrel as desperate traders paid to get rid of oil.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, also slumped, but that contract was nowhere near as weak because more storage is available worldwide.
While U.S. oil prices are trading in negative territory for the first time ever, it is unclear whether that will trickle down to consumers, who typically see lower oil prices translate into cheaper gasoline at the pump.
As billions of people around the globe stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, physical demand for crude has dried up, creating a global supply glut.
Traders fled from the expiring May U.S. oil futures contract in a frenzy on Monday with no place to put the crude, but the June WTI contract CLc2 settled at a much higher level of $20.43 a barrel.
The May U.S. WTI contract CLc1 fell $55.90, or 306%, to settle at a discount of $37.63 a barrel after touching an all-time low of -$40.32 a barrel. Brent LCOc1 was down $2.51, or 9%, to settle at $25.57 a barrel.
VEGOILS-Palm oil rises on higher crude prices; but set for 13% monthly drop
* Palm up 2.6%, its third day of gains
* Palm set for 0.4% weekly rise, 13% monthly fall
By Mei Mei Chu
KUALA LUMPUR, April 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil
futures climbed for a third straight session on Thursday,
tracking higher crude and soybean oil prices, as traders awaited
data on April exports due later in the day.
The contract, however, was on course for a monthly drop of
13% after a historic rout in oil prices and as
coronavirus-driven lockdowns around the globe slammed demand.
On Thursday, the benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for
July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained
53 ringgit, or 2.6%, to 2,084 ringgit ($483.30) per tonne by the
midday break. It was up 0.4% for the week.
However, the recovery in prices is likely to be short-lived
unless Malaysian palm oil production is lower than market
expectations, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Sunvin
Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker.
Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's second-largest
palm producer, during its first month of a partial lockdown to
contain the coronavirus tumbled 41.7% from a year earlier to
890,331 tonnes, its plantation industries and commodities
minister said on Thursday.
FGV Holdings FGVH.KL , the world's largest crude palm oil
producer, forecast a significant drop in 2020 output as
coronavirus-driven restrictions disrupted work at its
plantations and mills.
"The demand for palm oil is yet to improve on the whole but
destinations are now buying a bit due to lucrative prices and a
widened palm oil discount over soybean oil," Bagani said.
Palm futures were supported on Thursday by a more than 10%
jump in oil prices. Stronger crude oil futures make palm a more
attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.
Meanwhile, Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1
gained 0.37%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 jumped 1.65%.
Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 were up
0.76%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as
they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
The Malaysian bourse will be closed for Labour Day on Friday
and will resume operations on Monday.
Palm oil still targets a zone of 2,072-2,107 ringgit, as
suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis, Reuters
technical analyst Wang Tao said.
* Palm up 2.6%, its third day of gains
* Palm set for 0.4% weekly rise, 13% monthly fall
By Mei Mei Chu
KUALA LUMPUR, April 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil
futures climbed for a third straight session on Thursday,
tracking higher crude and soybean oil prices, as traders awaited
data on April exports due later in the day.
The contract, however, was on course for a monthly drop of
13% after a historic rout in oil prices and as
coronavirus-driven lockdowns around the globe slammed demand.
On Thursday, the benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for
July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained
53 ringgit, or 2.6%, to 2,084 ringgit ($483.30) per tonne by the
midday break. It was up 0.4% for the week.
However, the recovery in prices is likely to be short-lived
unless Malaysian palm oil production is lower than market
expectations, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Sunvin
Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker.
Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's second-largest
palm producer, during its first month of a partial lockdown to
contain the coronavirus tumbled 41.7% from a year earlier to
890,331 tonnes, its plantation industries and commodities
minister said on Thursday.
FGV Holdings FGVH.KL , the world's largest crude palm oil
producer, forecast a significant drop in 2020 output as
coronavirus-driven restrictions disrupted work at its
plantations and mills.
"The demand for palm oil is yet to improve on the whole but
destinations are now buying a bit due to lucrative prices and a
widened palm oil discount over soybean oil," Bagani said.
Palm futures were supported on Thursday by a more than 10%
jump in oil prices. Stronger crude oil futures make palm a more
attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.
Meanwhile, Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1
gained 0.37%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 jumped 1.65%.
Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 were up
0.76%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as
they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
The Malaysian bourse will be closed for Labour Day on Friday
and will resume operations on Monday.
Palm oil still targets a zone of 2,072-2,107 ringgit, as
suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis, Reuters
technical analyst Wang Tao said.
Brazil soybean exports hit record in April -govt data - Reuters
05-May-2020 07:05:33 AM
By Roberto Samora
SAO PAULO, May 4 (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean exports in April reached 16.3 million tonnes, an all-time record for a single month and an increase from 9.4 million tonnes in same month last year, according to average daily export data released on Monday by the government.
The previous record was 12.35 million tonnes, set in May 2018. Brazil, the world's largest exporter of soybeans, had shipped 11.64 million tonnes of soybeans in March, according to government data, as local farmers finish collecting another bumper crop.
The market expects Brazil to continue reporting strong soy export numbers in May, June and July, though it is not clear if the April record will be beat, Luiz Fernando Roque, an analyst at consultancy Safras & Mercado, told Reuters. The first export figures in May indicate Brazil should export at least 9 million tonnes this month, he added.
"I think May and June will still be strong, but the changes of breaking the April record are small," he said. "It's unlikely."
In the medium-term, he added, the phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China has created uncertainty for Brazilian exports in the second half of the year, as China is required to import a minimum amount of U.S. soy under the deal's terms.
"The big doubt is whether or not China will honor that accord," Roque said.
05-May-2020 07:05:33 AM
By Roberto Samora
SAO PAULO, May 4 (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean exports in April reached 16.3 million tonnes, an all-time record for a single month and an increase from 9.4 million tonnes in same month last year, according to average daily export data released on Monday by the government.
The previous record was 12.35 million tonnes, set in May 2018. Brazil, the world's largest exporter of soybeans, had shipped 11.64 million tonnes of soybeans in March, according to government data, as local farmers finish collecting another bumper crop.
The market expects Brazil to continue reporting strong soy export numbers in May, June and July, though it is not clear if the April record will be beat, Luiz Fernando Roque, an analyst at consultancy Safras & Mercado, told Reuters. The first export figures in May indicate Brazil should export at least 9 million tonnes this month, he added.
"I think May and June will still be strong, but the changes of breaking the April record are small," he said. "It's unlikely."
In the medium-term, he added, the phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China has created uncertainty for Brazilian exports in the second half of the year, as China is required to import a minimum amount of U.S. soy under the deal's terms.
"The big doubt is whether or not China will honor that accord," Roque said.
*Reuters Poll Apr vs Mar MPOB:*
Prodn 1.61m vs 1.40m (+15%)
Impt 53k vs 75k
Expt 1.23m vs 1.18m (+4%)
LDsp 253k vs 263k
Stks 1.91m vs 1.73m (+10%)
Bloomberg Poll:
Prodn 1.61m (+15.2%)
Impt 60k
Expt 1.24m (+5.1%)
LDsp 190k-320k
Stks 1.89m (+9.2%) hrs
Prodn 1.61m vs 1.40m (+15%)
Impt 53k vs 75k
Expt 1.23m vs 1.18m (+4%)
LDsp 253k vs 263k
Stks 1.91m vs 1.73m (+10%)
Bloomberg Poll:
Prodn 1.61m (+15.2%)
Impt 60k
Expt 1.24m (+5.1%)
LDsp 190k-320k
Stks 1.89m (+9.2%) hrs
Palm Oil Has Room for More Losses in Next Four Months: Mistry
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil faces a “deadly cocktail” of rising production and cratering demand, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International, said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday.
• Palm oil will have to bear more pain in next 3-4 months: Mistry
o Prices “getting close” to output cost, which is around 1,800 ringgit/ton for smallholders in Indonesia, Malaysia
o Prices may not hit “catastrophic” levels as the worst of the virus pandemic may be over
• There’s still room for palm oil to go down to attract demand; still, any recovery in demand may take six months
o Edible oil demand may pick up first as global economies recover from pandemic; biodiesel may need more time
• Palm oil production seen increasing further from June-July as crop enters high production season
• Biodiesel programs in Indonesia, Malaysia have become unaffordable
o “Barriers in terms of affordability are now so huge that Indonesia will have to compromise and curtail its program”
• China may crush more oilseeds as economy recovers, reducing need for palm oil imports
• Slowing Indian economy is hurting edible oil consumption, so country will cut palm oil imports
o Indian demand for palm oil in 2020 oil year will shrink to 7.5m tons from 9.5m tons
• Palm oil may recover from 4Q onwards; there will be better edible oil and biodiesel demand in 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil faces a “deadly cocktail” of rising production and cratering demand, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International, said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday.
• Palm oil will have to bear more pain in next 3-4 months: Mistry
o Prices “getting close” to output cost, which is around 1,800 ringgit/ton for smallholders in Indonesia, Malaysia
o Prices may not hit “catastrophic” levels as the worst of the virus pandemic may be over
• There’s still room for palm oil to go down to attract demand; still, any recovery in demand may take six months
o Edible oil demand may pick up first as global economies recover from pandemic; biodiesel may need more time
• Palm oil production seen increasing further from June-July as crop enters high production season
• Biodiesel programs in Indonesia, Malaysia have become unaffordable
o “Barriers in terms of affordability are now so huge that Indonesia will have to compromise and curtail its program”
• China may crush more oilseeds as economy recovers, reducing need for palm oil imports
• Slowing Indian economy is hurting edible oil consumption, so country will cut palm oil imports
o Indian demand for palm oil in 2020 oil year will shrink to 7.5m tons from 9.5m tons
• Palm oil may recover from 4Q onwards; there will be better edible oil and biodiesel demand in 2021