Weekly Outlook
11-15 November 2024

🔷The FBMKLCI is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, building on the positive momentum observed last week.

🔷From a technical perspective, we anticipate the benchmark index to trade in cautious within a range of 1,635 to 1,645 points in the coming week, with key support levels at 1,610 and 1,600.

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Weekly Market Outlook
18-22 November 2024

🔷The market traded weaker this week, reflecting similar trends in regional markets and Wall Street.

🔷This downturn coincides with a fading of the initial optimism following President Trump’s election victory, a phenomenon often observed when a new administration assumes power in the White House.

🔷Week-on-week, the FBMKLCI declined by 1.77%, or 28.8 points. Despite this, Malaysia’s domestic economic indicators remain robust.

🔷The Industrial Production Index (IPI) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, employment increased by 0.2% compared to August, and manufacturing sales rose by 2.9% year-on-year.

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Weekly Market Outlook
25-29 November 2024

🔷 The FBMKLCI is anticipated to trade within a tight range of 1,600 to 1,610 in the upcoming week, with 1,600 remaining a key psychological and technical threshold.

🔷While the index has briefly fallen below this level in recent weeks, consistent efforts to reclaim it reflect cautious optimism among market participants.

🔷However, momentum remains subdued, with upward movements likely to hinge on external catalysts.

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Next Week's Market Outlook
2 - 6 December 2024

🔹The FBMKLCI is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the coming week, though within a constrained range of 1,600 to 1,610.

🔹 While the index briefly slipped into negative territory this week, breaching the key 1,600 psychological level, a rebound appears probable.

🔹 Bargain hunters are likely to seize opportunities following the conclusion of the earnings season, and overall market sentiment remains broadly supportive, underpinned by positive cues from US equity futures.

🔹The upward momentum in US indices suggests continued bullishness, which could spill over into regional markets, including Malaysia.

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Week Ahead
9-13 December 2024

🔷 The FBMKLCI is poised for upward momentum next week, bolstered by stronger market participation this week and a positive sentiment driven by both domestic and external economic data.

🔷As the composite index revisits the 1,600 level, we expect this momentum to persist, supported by several key factors that suggest a favorable market outlook.

🔷First, Malaysia’s export growth in October, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in domestic exports, highlights the resilience of the nation’s trade sector.

🔷The recovery in Malaysia’s electronics and electrical (E&E) exports is particularly promising, indicating that the positive trade trend could continue through the final months of 2024, driven by sustained global demand for technology products.

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Week Ahead
16 - 20 December

🔹As attention shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting (17-18 Dec), moderating inflation—albeit at a slower pace—provides the Federal Reserve with room to continue its interest rate cutting cycle.

🔹 A 0.25% rate cut at the final meeting of the year appears highly probable, though the pace of reductions may slow as the central bank aims for a soft landing.

🔹 Market expectations currently indicate a 96% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with less than 4% anticipating rates to remain unchanged. In this context, we expect the FBMKLCI to trade within the range of 1,615 to 1,625 next week, supported by optimism surrounding the Fed’s rate cut.

🔹 This aligns with our year-end 2024 FBMKLCI target of 1,650. By say this, we expect the composite index resistance is envisaged around 1,616-1,622.

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Weekly Market Outlook
25-29 November 2024

🔷 The FBMKLCI rallied last week, closing at 1,628.14 on Friday, a weekly gain of 36.74 points, or 2.31%.

🔷 This strong performance was primarily driven by power and utility stocks, likely bolstered by year-end window-dressing activities by portfolio managers.

🔷Notably, the rally occurred without significant foreign investor participation, underscoring the resilience of domestic market drivers.

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Week Ahead
6–10 January 2025

🔷 The FBMKLCI is projected to trade higher in the coming week, with the potential to surpass the resistance level of 1,645 while finding support at 1,615.

🔷 Foreign investors are likely to reposition their portfolios towards emerging markets as they await clarity on economic developments under the Trump 2.0 administration, particularly its anticipated pro-business policies.

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Week Ahead: 13–17 January 2025

🔷The December 2024 non-farm payroll report, released on Friday, showed another rise and exceeded median analyst expectations.

🔷While this data underscores a healthy labour market, it also triggered market volatility, as investors had anticipated a weaker reading to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

🔷The stronger-than-expected figures reduce the probability of two rate cuts in 2025, as previously hoped.

🔷 This rebalancing of expectations weighed on sentiment but should ultimately provide a clearer foundation for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decisions moving forward.

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Week Ahead: 20-24 January 2025

🔷The FBMKLCI is expected to extend its upward momentum in the coming week, building on last Friday’s rebound following a four-day sell-off.

🔷 We anticipate that continued bargain hunting will support the index’s recovery. As of 17 January, the FBMKLCI has recorded a year-to-date decline of 4.60% or 75.61 points, which we believe presents a timely opportunity for investors to accumulate blue-chip stocks.

🔷 The US earnings season is also expected to serve as a key catalyst for investor sentiment.

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Week Ahead
27-31 January 2025

🔷 Following President Trump’s inauguration last week, markets have closely scrutinised his statements as economists, analysts, and central banks attempt to gauge his policy direction.

🔷 While long-term consequences remain uncertain, the transition appears smoother and more measured compared to his first term.

🔷 Last week, the FBMKLCI started on a strong note, mirroring global market movements.

🔷 However, profit-taking activity later weighed on the index, causing it to lag behind its regional and global counterparts in performance.

🔷 Next week, the FBMKLCI is expected to take a cautious stance as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome.

🔷 The shortened trading week, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, will likely dampen market activity, with muted volumes and limited movements anticipated.

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