DD Geopolitics

🇪🇺🇩🇪🇷🇺Status quo; a dysfunctional and a capable Europe; the West's strategic retreat and a freezing of the conflict on Russia's terms: the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung presents its own versions of what might happen next in Ukraine and Europe.

Scenario 1: Status quo. The war of attrition continues. The military situation remains static because both sides lack the means for operational breakthroughs. Russia is unable to undertake any far-reaching offensive actions, and Ukraine cannot achieve significant territorial gains. The US is gradually abandoning its role as a political peacemaker. It is being replaced by a technocratic function: selling certain key technologies - in particular, ammunition for Patriot systems, components for electronic warfare - as well as indirect intelligence support through European partners.

Scenario 2: The European Game-Changing Factor. Europe needs to overcome its internal divisions: different threat perceptions in France, Germany, Northern and Central Eastern Europe, different historical experiences, and institutional inertia are holding back strategic action. Without a minimum of political coherence, even significant support risks fading away. A weak, rhetorically ambitious but operationally inconsistent Europe risks giving up geopolitically. This would create a power vacuum – not only in Ukraine, but also across the entire Eurasian arc, which is increasingly being shaped by Russia, China, and Turkey.

Scenario Three: European Coordination. Strategic blockade of Russia and the path to negotiations. Europe succeeds in repositioning itself as a subject of security policy. Ukraine receives constant military-technical, economic and institutional support. At the same time, the United States maintains a minimal level of geostrategic responsibility – whether for foreign policy reasons or domestic political calculations. In this scenario, Russia is increasingly under pressure: it is militarily restrained, economically isolated, socially tense. The possibility of open-ended negotiations arises not as a result of rapprochement, but as a result of structural deadlocks.

Scenario 4: Freezing of the conflict, strategic retreat of the West. Military stalemate and geopolitical withdrawal merge. Europe is divided, the US is completely gone. Ukraine is undersupplied militarily, marginalized diplomatically and increasingly destabilized domestically. Russia does not achieve full control over all of Ukraine, but achieves strategic consolidation: freezing of the conflict on its own terms, international recognition of its de facto ownership of Ukrainian territories, and increased influence over the Ukrainian leadership and society through hybrid instruments. International organizations such as the UN or the OSCE will be largely unable to act in this scenario – they will be blocked by a Russian veto or structurally paralyzed. NATO will also be challenged, lacking a credible response strategy capable of achieving consensus.

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