🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Regarding Tension on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

🔻Last night, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reported that the Armenian army had launched attacks on Heyderabad and Bichenek in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, along the border with Armenia. Shortly after, the Armenian Ministry of Defense declared shelling of their positions near the villages of Kut and Teh in the Sotka and Sisian regions.

▪️ While there has been no confirmation from either side, given the ongoing events in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, such developments are becoming less surprising. Interestingly, for the second time in a week, Azerbaijani reports have highlighted activities near Yeraskh being documented: either showcasing construction work at the border or discussing instances of shelling.

▪️ The video from yesterday clearly shows the construction of earthen fortifications - a standard defensive measure in tense border areas. The Azerbaijani accusations of their opponents constructing strongholds for "offensive purposes" remain unclear.

▪️ Nonetheless, such rhetoric from Azerbaijanis, referring to the border with Armenians as "conditional," is no longer surprising. Azerbaijan does not conceal its territorial ambitions towards Armenia, actively preparing for annexation.

Border reconnaissance and army modernization efforts are ongoing, with the Azerbaijani armed forces utilizing new weapons and equipment. Therefore, the deployment of several strongholds by the Armenian army at the current level will serve little purpose if left unoccupied. Azerbaijan seems to require such accusations to justify their attacks.

❗️The Azerbaijani Armed Forces' activities are evidenced by the flights of Bayraktar drones over Armenia, both towards Yeraskh and Vardenis including Jermuk. Additionally, in southeastern Azerbaijan, the high-altitude UAV Akıncı has started operating for the first time. Given the capabilities of this drone, it is likely to appear near the Armenian borders soon.

Interestingly, local channels and media outlets are predicting a potential Azerbaijani attack as early as this month, although this scenario appears unlikely at the current stage. Instead, minor provocations and temporary escalations seem more probable. Blaming the Armenians for shelling and using it as a pretext to seize part of the land would be a more convenient option.

The lack of assertiveness from the Armenian authorities only adds to this situation.

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#Armenia #Azerbaijan
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🇦🇲🇪🇺🇺🇸 Today, there is celebration in pro-government Armenian channels as the Americans have pledged to allocate $65 million for reforms in government and the economy. Additionally, Ursula von der Leyen from the EU has committed to providing grants of 270 million euros over four years for business development.

🔻Armenians are being told stories about how the Western countries will assist Armenian businesses and economies in recovering and breaking free from Russia's influence. The question arises: how will this assistance be carried out?

Merely using populist slogans and providing small installments of funding will not effectively foster economic growth, especially when the sector is struggling. As previously mentioned, Armenian brandy has faced challenges in entering the European market.

▪️ While $65 million may not seem like a substantial sum, it holds significance for the Americans given their major financial support to Ukrainian and Israeli authorities. Yet, doubts linger about the effectiveness of aiding the financially strained Armenian government.

▪️ The grants promised by von der Leyen are set to be distributed over a four-year period. However, given the current situation with Azerbaijan, uncertainties arise regarding whether Yerevan will receive the full amount within the specified timeframe.

❗️Should the funds not be disbursed on time, the Europeans may redistribute them internally. On the contrary, timely transfer of funds in Armenia may expedite the process but raise concerns about misuse.

Allocation of funds towards democratic values and various movements, including the LGBT community, is anticipated. The reaction of ordinary Armenians to such developments, like transvestite parades in Yerevan, remains to be seen.

Hence, the Western actions do not reflect a strong commitment. It appears more as a reallocation of funds, providing a small consolation to the Pashinyan administration, accompanied by vague and inconclusive statements. This can be perceived as a "victory" for Pashinyan.
#Armenia #EU #USA
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