Real Estate Buyers and Sellers:

We are with you from the beginning to the end with a professional team in the field of selling and buying your dream home.
services rendered:
- Providing loans with the lowest interest rates available in the market ( First, Second, Third Mortgages)
- Free evaluation of your home Home Evaluation
- Finding your dream home according to location and budget
- Obtaining complete market information in order to make the right decision when buying or selling a house/condo
- Special services for:
- First Time Home Buyers
- Newcomers to Canada
- Non-residents of Canada
- Buying an Investment Property
- Renovation Services

☎️ Ways to contact us via Phone or Email:
+1 (647) 772-9502
hoizady@yahoo.com
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هموطنان عزيزم
برای خرید، فروش،اجاره در انتاريو وكلان شهر تورنتو
با من حجت اله ایزدی تماس بگیرید.

☎️ Ways to contact us via Phone, Email, Website, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and Telegram:
+1 (647) 772-9502
hoizady@yahoo.com

website:
www.homelife.ca/Hojjatollah-Izady
Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/Hojjatollah.Izady
Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/ihoizady/
Whatsapp:
https://wa.me/message/72TR24AJCPDPJ1
Telegram link:
https://t.me/Buy_and_Sell_Property_in_Toronto
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پیش‌بینی گلدمن ساکس: «سقوط بازار مسکن در کانادا، استرالیا، و نیوزیلند»

برای اولین بار در بیش از یک دهه، املاک مسکونی در سراسر کشورهای توسعه یافته در برابر کاهش قیمت‌ها آسیب‌پذیر به نظر می‌رسد. این نتیجه همان چیزی است که بانک‌های مرکزی پس از افزایش بی‌سابقه قیمت مسکن و تورم به افزایش نرخ بهره روی می‌آورند.

اما برخلاف آخرین بار، رکود مسکن در سال 2008، ایالات متحده در کانون این سقوط بازار مسکن قرار نخواهد گرفت. حداقل طبق گفته گلدمن ساکس.

در این ماه، محققان گلدمن ساکس مطالعه‌ای تحت عنوان « The housing downturn: A bigger deal down under and up north» را منتشر کردند. تا پایان سال 2023، این مقاله افت قیمت مسکن را برای نیوزلند 21 درصد، برای استرالیا 18 درصد و برای کانادا 13 درصد پیش‌بینی کرده است. برای مقایسه، ترکیدن حباب مسکن ایالات متحده که به رکود انجامید بین‌ سال‌های 2006 تا 2012، بیست و هفت درصد کاهش یافت.

در این گزارش آمده است انقباضات اقتصادی ناشی از اصلاح مداوم قیمت مسکن می‌تواند در نیوزلند، استرالیا و کانادا شدیدتر باشد.
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VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEWS
“Bad Dream to a Nightmare”: Developers React to Rate Hikes With Gloomy Outlook

Many were holding their breath ahead of the Bank of the Canada’s latest interest rate hike announcement, but perhaps none more so than developers, who now have to make the necessary adjustments in light of that hike.

Developers were crossing their fingers for an increase of just 50 basis points, but leading up the announcement, experts pegged the increase at 75 basis points, which turned out to be the accurate.

The Overnight Lending Rate is now currently 3.25%, and may still continue increasing given the outlook on inflation, which the Bank of Canada continues to cite as the reason for raising interest rates. Previously, the Bank of Canada has said their inflation target was 2%.
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Those in the real estate market recognize this, but have still come away from the increase announcement with a common sense of caution and a gloomy outlook on the impact of higher rates, according to multiple people interviewed by STOREYS.

How Interest Rates Affect Developers
“Nobody in [the] business wanted to see this,” founder and CEO of BakerWest Real Estate, Mr. Chan, said. “Everyone was hoping for the lower end [increase] of 0.5%.”

Chan says that it starts with developers’ financial analyses of projects (pro formas), which he believes many will now have to re-assess or even re-do, as higher-than-expected rates can push their numbers beyond their “contingency boundaries.” Chan says those delays could then lead to postponed execution of developments, which could then result in a backlog of new projects with delayed launches.

In a separate interview with STOREYS, Joe Lee, a real estate advisor for the Faithwilson arm of Christie’s International Real Estate who has previously worked in sales and consulting for firms like Concord Pacific and Bosa Properties, voiced a similar outlook.

“For smaller developers or developments still in the infant stage, the developers may re-assess the situation and carefully consider if they should launch,” he said, adding that several developers have opted to pause their projects in order to see how this latest increase will play out. Bigger developers may be able to tough it out, Lee believes. “Some mid-large size developers with cash or land for decades are pushing ahead if they have already invested heavily into the project, especially if the city has already given the green light. They understand that the pre-sale market isn’t completely dead.”

Regarding pre-sales, Toby Chu, Chairman and CEO of CIBT Education Group — the parent company of GEC Living, which specializes in student rental buildings across Metro Vancouver — told STOREYS that, “Generally speaking, the business model for most developers is: buy land, pre-sale, build, deliver, and repeat. This traditional model could have profound impacts in today’s environment because once they pre-sold the units at a fixed price, they effectively placed a cap on their income.”

Chu says that although GEC Living is unaffected in this way — because they rent out, not sell, units — other developers will have to “slow down or outright stop their development cycle until they can see a path of stability.”

Aside from interest rates and inflation, Chu says there are other compounding challenges that developers are currently facing, such as construction costs, labour shortages, and slow permitting processes.

Lee concurs, pointed out that although lumber prices have dropped by over 50% since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been overshadowed by labour costs and labour shortages, resulting in net construction costs for residential buildings increasing nearly 25% year over year in Q1 2022.

Those problems affect the speed of construction, which of course then goes back to rising interest rates. “This extra time means more interest payments for the developer,” Lee said. “I personally do see that a lot of projects that are ongoing right now are going to be delayed. Hopefully by a bit, but most likely significantly. This is already happening where we are hearing projects completing one year plus from the initial projected completion.”
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The Ripple Effects
Those delays, as with most things in economics, have ripple effects that can then impact those who aren’t developers, such as prospective homeowners or low-income renters. With projects being delayed, the housing supply in Metro Vancouver can quickly become plugged up, and with the demand not waning, what will inevitably happen is prices will have to go up. Because of rising construction costs, “developers are forced to go with the worst-case scenario by adding those premiums to the end user [buyers or renters] during the pro forma planning,” Lee says.

In a previous interview with STOREYS following the June interest rate increase from 1.00% to 1.50%, BakerWest’s Chan said that “should this [interest rates] continue the way they are, it won’t just impact the strata market condos, but it will also impact the affordable rental projects, which [are] greatly needed by the cities, and across the nation.”
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Chu tells STOREYS that “If our financing and construction costs go up, our future rental rate will increase accordingly.”

Students, of course, are already facing an extremely tough rental market. GEC Living is the biggest off-campus housing provider for students in Metro Vancouver. While they have several projects on the way, miniscule vacancy rates could push low-income students closer and closer towards housing precarity, and possibly even homelessness. Chu also points out that because higher prices means fewer people buying homes, more people will turn to renting, compounding the situation.

These factors can prove especially significant in a real estate market like Vancouver. Unfortunately, going forward, Lee sees the market conditions getting worse.

“Should this condition continue, pre-sale prices will remain or go higher. If the developer is not able to attain those numbers, they will simply just not build. This will then impact how many projects we will release in the short term and, of course, impact supply in the long term. The developer will consider all of these factors, and they will make the right decision for their business. As a result, this will cost a negative chain reaction where the prices for our homes in the future will get more and more expensive due to a further lack of supply.”

Chu also has a dark outlook. He sees supply going from “bad to worse” and says that “when the [housing supply] pipeline stops, it takes months to re-mobilize and years to catch up.” He also sees demand simultaneously increasing. “International and domestic students arriving in Vancouver to study, they rent. Migrants moving to Vancouver for work, they rent. New immigrants arriving in Canada (3M in five years), they rent before they buy. Interest rate causes stress test issues for new home buyers; thus they rent. Homeowners downsize from owning to renting, they rent.”

How would he describe the changes in Vancouver’s rental and housing crisis in the near future as a result of that supply shortage and demand increase? “I think the rental crisis will transform a bad dream into a nightmare.”
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A third of Canadians worry about covering 'daily living expenses,' survey finds
Financial well-being index drops to lowest reading since it started

As inflation trips along, almost one-third of working Canadians say they are worried about being able to cover their “daily living expenses,” according to a new report.

The Financial Wellbeing Index for Summer 2022 released by LifeWorks, a unit of Telus Health, found that 29 per cent of survey respondents fear they won’t meet their day-to-day costs of living. The index’s reading of Canadians’ overall financial well-being dropped to 64 (out of 100), its lowest-ever number since the quarterly index was launched in the winter of 2021.
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“The last quarter has been riddled with heightened financial concerns as inflation, interest rates and overall cost of living have significantly increased,” Idan Shlesinger, president of retirement and financial solutions and executive vice-president at LifeWorks, said in a press release.

Among those experiencing financial anxiety, the survey, on which the index is based, found that people aged 40 and under are 75 per cent more likely than those older than 50 to be fretting about basic living expenses. And people with children are 40 per cent more likely than people without children to be worried about covering daily costs.

Some Canadians, however, are thriving. For example, those working in the mining and oil and gas extraction industries said their financial well-being has improved, with their index score rising to 72.5 from 69.9 last winter. Those in the professional, scientific, technical services had the second-highest score at 70.6, up from 70.4.

Scores between 0 to 49 correspond with distress levels, scores between 50 to 79 correspond with strain levels and scores between 80 to 100 correspond with optimal levels.

Of course, no poll about personal finances would be worth its salt these days without feedback on inflation.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, increased 7.6 per cent in July from the previous year, down from an 8.1 per cent increase in June. Still, the core reading, which excludes gasoline, continued to rise in July, up 6.6 per cent compared with 6.5 per cent in June. Statistics Canada will release numbers for August on Sept. 20.

The LifeWorks survey found that inflation is hitting 50 per cent of Canadians in the survey hardest at the grocery store, while 35 per cent said they were feeling it most at the gas pump, followed by housing at seven per cent and debt repayment at five per cent.

LifeWorks also asked how Canadians are handling rising interest rates and whether they would feel mortgage payment pressure if the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark lending rate above three per cent.

The survey was conducted in early July, well before the central bank raised its rate to 3.25 per cent on Sept. 7.

At the time of the survey, 23 per cent said they were “concerned” and a further 17 per cent were “unsure about their ability to meet mortgage payments” based on a Bank of Canada rate higher than three per cent.

On the investing side, 44 per cent of respondents said the decline in equities had an impact on them while 22 per cent said it had not, with the former having a financial well-being index score of 65.9 and the latter a score of 69.1.

Stock markets have taken a hit in 2022, with the S&P TSX composite down 7.6 per cent year to date as of Thursday. In July, at the time the research was conducted, the TSX was down 13.6 per cent.
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Canadian households have lost billions in real estate cool-down

Home prices have only fallen to where they were 18 months ago, but there are knock-on effects to the economy.

Canada's real estate market has suddenly and dramatically cooled. Sales have dropped 24 per cent since this time last year. The average price of a home in this country has fallen by $179,047 since the peak in February.

And yet, has much actually changed?

"I consider it like letting the air out of a balloon," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. "You don't want it necessarily to pop and burst, but in the near term prices needed to come down to something that was a little bit more sustainable."

For anyone trying to get into the market, the prospect of a cool down was always presented as an opportunity. But even with a 20 per cent drop in prices, Canada's average home price has fallen back to where it was in early 2021.
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What has changed, however, is how house-poor the typical Canadian family is feeling lately. Statistics Canada says the drop in home prices has helped drive the largest decline of household wealth this country has ever seen.

Billions lost in household net worth
It may be easy to look at the decline in home prices and, if you're not an owner trying to sell, say, "That doesn't affect me."

But the reality is: Much of Canadian household wealth is tied up in home prices, the sector itself remains one of the biggest contributors to Canadian GDP, and it just took a hit.

Statscan says the net worth of Canadian households — defined as the value of all assets minus all liabilities — fell by a staggering $990.1 billion in April, May and June.

"This decline was compounded by a $389.8-billion drop in the value of non-financial assets, as the streak of gains in real estate that began in late 2018 was halted by a housing market grappling with rapidly rising interest rates," wrote the data agency in a release last week.

The rest of the drop in household wealth comes as stock markets tanked in the second quarter. (Statscan's figures only covered the period ending in June. Stock markets have recovered somewhat since then, but the once red-hot housing market losses have accelerated through July and August.)
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Renting is growing twice as fast as home ownership, census reveals

10 million households own their home, while 5 million rent. But the gap is narrowing.

The number of households who rent their homes has grown twice as fast as the number of those who own, census data has revealed.

Statistics Canada revealed Wednesday that the number of households who rent their homes grew by more than 21 per cent between 2011 and 2021. By contrast, the number of households that own their homes grew by just eight per cent over the same period.

Although the gap is narrowing, owners still outnumber those who rent by a significant margin. More than 10 million households owned their home last year — about twice as many as the five million who rent.

All in all, Canadians were less likely to own their own home than they were in 2011.
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Energy crunch in Canada looming closer than you might think

Lean hard on wind and solar but keep natural gas in the mix, RBC report says

Wind and solar should make up the bulk of new electricity generation in the next decade as Canada strives to expand its transmission system and meet its goal of a net-zero grid by 2035, with natural gas “unavoidable in the energy mix in the short-to-medium term,” a new report from the Royal Bank of Canada says.

Why are wind and solar among the report’s leading short-term solutions? The cost of wind and solar power have fallen 70 and 90 per cent, respectively, making them “the cheapest sources of new electricity,” RBC economist Colin Guldimann, the report’s author, said.

Furthermore, construction times on these types of projects are fast, meaning they can be added to the grid at a faster pace than other types of generating sources.
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“Provinces facing near-term challenges should lean hard into building renewables, cutting inefficiencies, and maintaining their current gas capacity. The harder choices are yet to come,” he said.

On the natural gas front, Guldimann said existing plants should continue to operate through 2035 to ensure the transition over to a net-zero grid goes smoothly.

Canada is already a clean electricity juggernaut due to hydroelectric resources, but it’s at a crossroads. Consumption is expected to increase by 50 per cent over the next decade and a major overhaul is needed if the power grid is to double by 2050.

As a result, provincial and federal governments will need to make a series of choices that account for decarbonization while ensuring the grid is both reliable and affordable.

“If they get it wrong, Canada could suffer Europe’s fate of a hobbled, energy-insecure grid that leaves consumers with soaring bills,” Guldimann said.

An energy crunch in Canada is looming nearer than many might expect.

The report, released on Wednesday, warned that Ontario — “Canada’s economic engine” — could be confronted with an energy shortage “as early as 2026, especially as current contracts for renewables and gas plants expire.” Among the reasons behind the potential shortfall are rising electricity demand for electric vehicles and electrified public transportation.

In the West, Alberta and Saskatchewan will also have to soon choose a path. Those provinces have abundant sources of solar and wind power, but coal has played a “significant role” in their grids and some of those plants are being converted to gas. Given the provinces’ abundant sources of natural gas, eliminating its role could prove politically complicated, Guldimann said.
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