As mortgage rates have increased, so has the stress test rate. Home prices have started trending downwards in some major cities in recent months. However, the annual income required to purchase a home has increased significantly across all cities — by $18,000 on average, in just the last four months.

Victoria saw the biggest increase, says RateHub.ca, with $35,760 in additional income required, with Vancouver close behind, requiring an additional $31,730. Meanwhile, homebuyers in Toronto need to earn $15,750 (or 7%) more compared with March.

“In every city, homebuyers require a lot more income to purchase the average home due to higher stress test rates caused by increasing mortgage rates. This is the case even for cities that saw home prices decline,” says James Laird, Co-CEO of Ratehub.ca and President of CanWise mortgage lender. “Generally, for every 1% that the stress test increases, a household qualifies for about 10% less mortgage.”

So, while there has been some relief on the price front, we’d need to see a lot more downward declines for houses to become grossly more attainable for first-time homebuyers — especially given the fact that rising rents make it more difficult to save. “Home prices will need to drop significantly in order to neutralize the effects that higher mortgage rates have on the stress test,” says Laird. “Unless this happens, home affordability will continue to be impacted significantly by the current rising rate environment.”
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New Condo development by Block Developments located at Dufferin St & Queen St W, Toronto.

Est. Occupancy: December 2022

Minutes to walk to the 301 & 501 Streetcar for travelling to work, play, entertainment or simply exploring all the city has to offer. Steps to Liberty Village, King West. Close to BMO Field, Exhibition Place, Lake Ontario, Forty York, the CNE and so much more! Close proximity to Gardiner Expressway. Minutes away to Trinity Bellwoods Park.

Amenities:
Barbeques, Catering Kitchen, Executive Concierge in Lobby, Fitness Center with Cardio & Weight Equipment, Lounge Areas with Fire pit, Dining & Meeting Room, Eco Friendly Green Roofs, Sunbathing, Designer Decorated Party Room with Full Kitchen, Pet Spa, Security Cameras, Rooftop Terrace Lounge

Prices Start from $1,334,900 - $1,745,900
957 sq ft to 1444 sq ft

Ceiling Height: 9" - 10"

For Booking please call:
Hojjatollah Izady
Realtor
HomeLife/Cimerman Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage
647-772-9502
hoizady@yahoo.com
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Why Canada's housing market slump could make affordability even worse

Rental needs to figure into the solution but these days there is little motivation for developers to build

Yes, Canada’s housing market is correcting but it won’t solve the affordability crisis, which could end up getting “worse,” according to a new analysis from CIBC.

Rapid-fire interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada — including an almost unprecedented 100 basis point hike on July 13 — have reeled in national home sales by 24 per cent year over year as of June and the average national home price by 14 per cent since February.

According to the report from CIBC Capital Markets economist Benjamin Tal, “that reset process is not over,” with sales expected to continue falling.
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But it won’t lead to a friendlier housing market for the average homebuyer.

In his analysis, released on Monday, Tal noted that the average national price will have to decline by an additional 25 per cent to reach “pre-COVID levels,” a time when Vancouver and Toronto were already nowhere near affordable.

“The point,” Tal said, “is that the ongoing correction will not solve the housing affordability crisis” as it already existed prior to the COVID-induced housing frenzy.

“In fact, we might be in the process of making the situation worse,” he said.

Alongside rising interest rates — the Bank of Canada’s benchmark policy rate is now at 2.5 per cent after being slashed to 0.25 per cent in March of 2020 — Tal cited the rising costs of construction and a severe labour shortage in the building industry as the other main affordability killers.

Those three forces are combining to “make (housing) projects that only yesterday looked promising, totally uneconomical,” Tal wrote.

Tal pointed to data from Urbanation, a real estate research company that tracks condominium, rental and land development markets, which found that of 30,000 condo units slated for construction in 2022 in the Greater Toronto Area, 10,000 were reportedly cancelled or suspended. Tal further noted that the situation was “worse” in the “purpose-built” rental market.

“We are in the midst of a project delay/cancellation wave, with developers choosing to sit on their hands, rather than engaging in a money-losing proposition,” he said.

The fewer rental units that are built, the tighter the rental market will become, and Tal argues that is a problem because increasing the supply of rental housing needs to figure in solving Canada’s housing availability and affordability crisis.

“We should develop a rental mentality in which you are 35 years old, you are married with two kids, and you are renting — nothing is wrong with you! Simply put, the propensity to rent must rise, and the market should realign to increase the supply of rental units,” he said.

Key to that will be getting developers onside.

Tal argues municipalities have the tools to incentivize builders including speeding up the approval process for rental housing, offering higher density rates, waving off HST on developments and ending or lowering development charges.

“Purpose-built rental could be the difference between an affordable and an unaffordable housing market in Canada. So far it appears that we are marching in the wrong direction,” he wrote.
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Recent reports from Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada show housing is the least affordable it has been in 30 years, since the peak of the 1980s/1990s housing bubble.

The average selling price of a house in Canada jumped some 40% in the two years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and now “the Bank of Canada’s ‘forceful’ interest rate hiking campaign will further inflate ownership costs in the near term,” RBC economists wrote in June.

“Higher rates will affect virtually every buyer across the country,” but the priciest markets will be hit hardest, they said, concluding that RBC’s measure of housing affordability is “on a path to worst-ever levels.”

With would-be buyers seeing their purchasing power shrinking, many are staying put in rental housing, and that’s putting upward pressure on rents.

Advertised rents jumped between 18 and 26% in Toronto and Vancouver over the past year, depending on the apartment type, Rentals.ca reports.

At first blush, the house price decline looks like good news for buyers (and bad news for owners). The average selling price of a house in Canada has fallen nearly 20% since its peak in February, to around $665,000 in June. That’s 1.8% lower than a year earlier.

But from the point of view of affordability, rising mortgage rates mean things are considerably worse than a year ago.

In a recent client note, Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic estimated that, with the Bank of Canada’s July rate hike, the mortgage payment on an average-priced home in Ontario will have ballooned by more than 50% since early 2021, from around $3,000 to $4,700.


Nationwide, the jump in mortgage costs is nearly as bad.

Over the past year, as discount rates for five-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped from around 1.7% to 4.3%, the monthly payment on an average-priced house jumped from around $2,200 to $2,900, a 32% increase. That’s even with the slight drop in the average house price over that time.

At these rates, to get back to last year’s $2,200 monthly payment, the average selling price would have to fall all the way to $510,000, a drop of another 23%.

And that doesn’t get us to affordable homes — only to last year’s already high housing costs.

Sorry, homebuyers. A house price crash won’t help much, because what falling home prices giveth, rising mortgage rates taketh away.

Canada Needs More Housing
It’s becoming increasingly apparent — to renters, homebuyers, real estate insiders and policymakers alike — that the country needs more housing.

According to a 2021 report from Scotiabank, Canada has the lowest number of housing units per capita of any G7 country.

A report earlier this year from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. found the country needs to build 3.5M more homes than planned by 2030 to get back to the affordability levels of 2003 and 2004 — the last time CMHC says housing was affordable.

Of those new homes, 1.85M additional units need to be built in Ontario alone, the report said.

Most agree that there are no quick solutions to the problem, and building more housing faster will require political action.

“Step one has to be ending exclusionary zoning,” says Jacob Dawang, an advocate with More Neighbours Toronto (MNTO).

The group is among a growing number of “YIMBY” (“yes in my back yard”) organizations that are taking on “NIMBY” (“not in my back yard”) activists who oppose new development in existing neighbourhoods.

The situation for renters in Toronto has turned dire, Dawang says. Tenants have no leverage in today’s market.

“If you don’t take the price your landlord gives you, there are 10 people behind you willing to pay that price,” he says.

The space to build new housing is there, groups like MNTO argue, if only cities changed their approach to development and allowed more densification of low-rise areas.
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Terminated Condo Listings Up by More Than 600% in the GTA

In June, condo listings in the GTA plunged to a record-setting low.

According to a report by Strata, the number of terminated listings rose by a staggering 643% from 380 in January to 2,822 in June. Realtors with Strata said this development in the condo market is in line with the overall housing market slowdown.

“Many sellers are still operating under the impression that this is a seller’s market, so they are listing too high and not seeing any action,” wrote Alex Hood, a realtor at Strata.ca, in the report. “At the same time, rising inflation and interest rates are making buyers feel uncertain about the trajectory of the market, which is causing them to be more conservative with their bids.”
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GTA Industrial Market Vacancy Remained at Record Low in Q2

Would-be commercial tenants in need of industrial space have had a tough time finding it in the Greater Toronto Area — and there’s no relief in the immediate term as the latest vacancy numbers reveal the region is among the tightest markets in North America.

The second-quarter Industrial Market Report from Avison Young reports an availability rate of just 0.9% in the industrial rental sector, remaining virtually unchanged from the previous quarter — the lowest on record — and reflecting a 135% increase over the past five years. In fact, there are only 16 available properties in the GTA measuring more than 250,000 sq ft. New supply is also slow to come online; currently, there is a total of 15M sq ft. under construction, a decline of 700,000 sq ft. from Q1.
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Calm before the storm: Canadian banks expected to start shoring up reserves as consumer credit risks build
Pressure is building on consumers amid rising interest rates and the loss of pandemic loan supports

Canada’s big banks may need to start shoring up their loan-loss provisions as the economic cycle turns and they eye growing consumer credit risks, according to a new report from Toronto-based Veritas Investment Research.

“Given cycle highs in household leverage and the fastest pace of interest rate increases in over twenty years, we expect provisions for credit losses (PCLs) in the upcoming cycle to match or potentially exceed PCLs during the global financial crisis (GFC),” Veritas investment analyst Nigel D’Souza wrote in a July 26 note to clients.
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D’Souza added that the firm is estimating a PCL ratio of between 0.70 per cent and 0.80 per cent, slightly higher than during the financial crisis in 2008, as Canadian banks have grown more exposed to international assets over the years.

On top of burgeoning household debt and international exposure, another issue that could force the banks to build up these provisions is that the same supports that kept Canadians paying their loans at the height of the pandemic are no longer in play.

In 2020, banks had ramped up loan-loss reserves and set a significant amount of capital aside to prepare for the worst. However, the worst never came as Canadians for the most part remained current on their loans, largely supported by a higher savings rate in the work-from-home era and buoyed by government supports such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and Canada Recovery Benefit.

Doug Hoyes, a licensed insolvency trustee and co-founder of Ontario-based firm Hoyes, Michalos & Associates Inc., sees the current climate as the “calm before the storm” when pressures from rising rates, Canada Revenue Agency collections and an economic downturn, among other factors, begin to bite.

“The train has left the station, but it’s not off the rails yet,” Hoyes said. “People are depleting the rest of their savings, they’re using whatever deferrals they can get… But with each passing month, as interest rates go higher, as more mortgages roll over, car loans roll over, everything else rolls over, then the pressure builds and builds and builds.

“So, what I see is the pressure building over the next number of months and quarters, which inevitably leads to higher delinquencies, higher insolvencies, more loan defaults,” Hoyes continued. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen on Monday.”
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It’s inspection season
Mike Holmes
Regular maintenance keeps your house clean, and your systems and appliances work more efficiently when properly maintained. Even newly constructed homes require routine upkeep and will last longer, keeping your family safe and secure for years to come.

If you haven’t inspected your deck, do it now. Look for loose boards or railings, rot, cracks, insect damage, or deterioration of fasteners and connectors. If you have real concerns hire a professional to inspect your deck — it’s better to be safe than sorry.

Also, inspect your roof — spring and fall are ideal times to get any repairs done, but you may have let this slide. Before it’s too late, do a quick visual check on the condition of your roof for missing or curled shingles or any water damage, and book an appointment if you have concerns. You may have to wait for an appointment, but it is good to get it booked now.
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Summertime is a great time to inspect your driveway and walkways for cracks and any unevenness that could be a tripping hazard. A few summers ago, I resealed my asphalt driveway, and it looks fantastic. The process added several more years of life to my driveway. You can hire a professional to get this done, but there are also some great DIY crack repair kits that will help you restore your walkways in a few simple steps.

Many homeowners are spending more time at home, so making the most out of your outdoor space is great. Depending on your level of handiwork, you can create a welcoming backyard by doing a good cleanup, adding planters, or creating some new garden beds. Remember, don’t get too close to the exterior or foundation of your home as this can lead to moisture issues, especially if there are any cracks in the foundation.

If you are thinking about a total backyard transformation, adding trees, rock gardens, walkways, water features, or unique spaces are all great ideas. However, you may need to consult a landscape architect and a contractor in that case.

Another way little critters or insects can get into your home is through openings. Fill in any holes around venting as this allows air leakage and acts as an access point for critters. Also, check for cracks below windows and doorsteps and repair any tears in window and door screens too.

If you see any holes in your mortar or loose bricks (sometimes referred to as “tuck-pointing”), get them fixed and seek a pro since this requires a unique skill and must be done correctly.

Be sure to clean your gutters and downspouts and use a gutter scoop to eliminate stuck-on debris and stray leaves. I would also consider installing a gutter guard, which prevents material from entering the gutter and clogging it up. Gutter guards will cut down on maintenance and no more climbing up ladders.

You may be going away on vacation or spending more time outside your house for extended periods, so this may be a good time to evaluate your home’s security system. I am a big fan of smart security systems and lighting, and there are a lot of options that you can control directly from your phone even if you’re out of the country.

In the summertime, we try to spend as much time as we can outside but don’t forget some important home maintenance tips that should also be done inside your home.

Our summers can be pretty hot, requiring us to use our air conditioner a lot. Make sure to schedule routine maintenance for your HVAC system. As a bonus consider also adding an ERV to your system. An ERV will improve HVAC efficiency, enhance indoor air quality, aid with odour management, and regulate relative humidity levels in your house.

Ceiling fans are another great way to help keep rooms in your home cool. The air won’t be colder, but by reversing the motion, the cool air will be forced downward and help keep you cool. In addition to your air conditioner, a ceiling fan can allow the AC to be turned up a few degrees, which could help save on your energy bill.

I believe failing to inspect smoke and CO2 detectors to ensure they are operational is the most common home maintenance mistake. Every season, I advise doing a test and replacing the batteries.

Summer is my favourite time of year and I love spending time outdoors. Practicing good home maintenance is the best thing you can do for the longevity of your home.
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